The Orioles Offense

[bpilktree]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In 2016 the teams lowest OPS, by month, was in July(664).  I seem to remember it being hot in Maryland in July.

By month OPS (2016)

796

725

888

664

767

719

 

The Orioles were not home much in July last year.  They had 18 away games and just 9 home games.  We actually were not bad at home in that span but could not score on the road at all.  We really struggled that month at the start of the 2nd half.   

[bpilktree]

The offense will live and die with the middle of the order those are the guys that can put up the big OPS numbers and carry a team for a stretch.  The bottom of the order guys can have a nice month and put up around an .800 OPS at times but they are not going to throw up a .900 or 1.000 OPS.  The main two guys are Machado and Davis as they run the offense IMO with some help from Trumbo and Jones at times.  Last year Machado struggled in July so the offense hit the rocks. 

[FlipTheBird]

11 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

The offense will live and die with the middle of the order those are the guys that can put up the big OPS numbers and carry a team for a stretch.  The bottom of the order guys can have a nice month and put up around an .800 OPS at times but they are not going to throw up a .900 or 1.000 OPS.  The main two guys are Machado and Davis as they run the offense IMO with some help from Trumbo and Jones at times.  Last year Machado struggled in July so the offense hit the rocks. 

The O's, since 2012, have always had the offense come and go in streaks. Just the nature of the club. We'll start to see them knocking a few more out here shortly. Davis and Trumbo started the year ice cold (and Davis is already back to it after a brief reprieve). Machado has been slumping. Jones is pretty banged up. Schoop hasn't been mashing homers but has been hitting very well.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

The O's, since 2012, have always had the offense come and go in streaks. Just the nature of the club. 

Frankly, it's the nature of most clubs.    We just notice it more with the Orioles since that's the team we follow.    

[webbrick2010]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Frankly, it's the nature of most clubs.    We just notice it more with the Orioles since that's the team we follow.    

Or we notice it more because it happens more? We are 12/15 in the AL in runs scored, last year we were 10/15. We are a below average offensive team so yeah it's easy to notice that we are a below average offensive team.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

Or we notice it more because it happens more? We are 12/15 in the AL in runs scored, last year we were 10/15. We are a below average offensive team so yeah it's easy to notice that we are a below average offensive team.

 

Not sure where you're getting your data.   We were 7th in runs scored last year, not 10th.   Right now we are 12th in total runs, but 11th in runs/game, having played fewer games than most teams.     As I said earlier in this thread, we were 4th or 5th about 2 weeks ago.    These things go in spurts.    

However, I do want to modify one thing I said.    According to some research I did over the winter and posted here, in 2015-16, our runs/game by month fluctuated more than the average AL team (and the most in the AL last year). This wasn't true in 2012-14.

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, TINSTAAPP said:

It's hard to score runs when your team is:

a) 13th in the AL in Walks and 12th in OBP (nobody on base)

b) 2nd to last in MLB in baserunning value (trouble manufacturing runs due to lack of team speed)

c) Only 6th in the AL in HRs (offense is not making up for lack of baserunners by hitting HRs)

d) Your two best offensive players (Machado and Davis) are hitting under .230 and your third and fourth best offensive players (Jones and Trumbo) have an OPS in the .710s

This is right on point. The very type of offensive club DD has built is prone to these kinds of slumps, especially when your best overall player (Manny) has not been very good. This is a one-dimensional, slow offensive club that relies on home runs to overcome it's lack of OBP and speed. Last year the team rode Trumbo's big year and the year before they had Davis hitting home runs left and right, but this year, our team leaders have just 10 (Manny and Davis) which is just tied for 40th in the MLB. 

Without the home runs, this team is not going to score very much with their low OBP/slow speed combination. We can only hope that someone wakes up. Let's be honest here, Manny has been a huge disappointment this season and this team could not afford to have a player of his caliber not perform. They just don't have the talent to have that kind of leeway.

The good news is that almost every Orioles starter is hitting below his career norms besides Schoop and Castillo (Mancini has no career norm to go off of) so we have hope they will heat up soon. 

 

[LookitsPuck]

Orioles runs scored by month 2016:

• April - 108 (4.7 R/G)
• May - 110 (4.1 R/G)
• June - 185 (6.6 R/G)
• July - 89 (3.4 R/G)
• August - 132 (4.6 R/G)
• September - 112 (4.1 R/G)

They averaged 4.6 R/G for the year. 

In 2017:

• April - 101 (4.4 R/G)
• May - 115 (4.4 R/G) 

They have looked pretty much inept over the last couple weeks, though. They scored 73 runs in their last 17 games going 4-13 and averaging 4.3 R/G. They've allowed 93 runs, though (that's 5.4 runs per game). So the issue here is that the offense appears to have been average these last 2+ weeks. But take away the 13 run outburst against the Tigers, they've scored 60 runs in 16 games. So 3.8 R/G. You're not going to win a lot of games with that kind of offense unless your pitching can hold up their end of the bargain. And their pitching hasn't. Especially the bullpen early on.

The team will bounce back. The bullpen will stabilize a bit more. The offense are who they are: 1 dimensional. They go through these spells.

[Spy Fox]

A power surge is coming sooner or later. This team didn't just hit the most HRs in the league last year, they were way ahead of the competition. They were 28 HRs ahead of the second ranked HR team, which was the same gap as between 2nd and 15th. We hit 66 HRs more than the average MLB team. Those same guys may not hit 250 again, but they aren't dropping back to league average over a full season (we're only 4 HRs above average so far this year). 

[sportsfan8703]

Seth Smith has been great but when we play LH SP's he is a non factor.  

2017:  18/49 vs LH SP  36.7%

2016: 46/162 vs LH SP 28.4%

We're 50 OPS points higher this year vs RH SP.  Last year we were about 80 OPS points higher.  Even going back the last few years there is a significant drop off vs. LHP.  We've pretty much had the same core with maybe some different role/platoon players.  

We're pretty terrible against LH SP's and we're about to see Sale, Ed Rod and Price in the 4 game series vs BOS.  So our one high OBP is a non factor for a whole series basically.  

[Ripken]

This franchise does not value the ability to get on base.  Bad philosophy, bad offense.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Ripken said:

This franchise does not value the ability to get on base.  Bad philosophy, bad offense.

They added Joey Rickard last year, what more could you want?

[bpilktree]

It amazes me we are still in the hunt when you look at the numbers on our guys.  Manny leads in War and is ranked 73 in baseball.   I was alos looking at OPS top 100 and only Schoop (69) and Davis (89).  Another note what happend to the offense in the AL there is just 7 guys in the top 30.

[El Gordo]

7 hours ago, ChinMusic said:

Is it just a slump, or is the more recent trend closer to their norm? The lack of walks and low OBP is glaring. Some of this can be masked by homerun power and instant offense, but when that's not happening it's easy to see why this lineup struggles to score runs.

Manny with a .560 OPS, Smith at .479 and Davis at .441 the last two weeks?  Given their respective career averages, I'd have to say it's closer to a slump than their norms. 

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, El Gordo said:

Manny with a .560 OPS, Smith at .479 and Davis at .441 the last two weeks?  Given their respective career averages, I'd have to say it's closer to a slump than their norms. 

Those three guys are absolutely killing us right now.    Those numbers are before last night's collective 1 for 14 with 7 strikeouts.