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Some observations about our bullpen

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I've read a few posts suggesting that the performance of our long relievers is a big reason why we're struggling a bit.   So, I decided to divide our bullpen into two groups:

(1) Givens, Brach, O'Day and Britton ("GBOB")

(2) Everyone else ("Others").

Here's what I found.    Last year, GBOB pitched 1.55 innings per game, to a 2.18 ERA; this year, they're pitching 1.53 innings per game, to a  2.99 ERA.    Same workload, significantly worse performance.    Of course, Britton being on the DL has a lot to do with it, the other big factor being that Brach's ERA is significantly higher this year (3.24 vs. 2.05).   (Don't forget, O'Day missed about half of last season.)

Last year, Others pitched 1.82 innings per game, to a 4.43 ERA; this year, they're pitching 2.06 innings per game, to a 4.69 ERA.   The ERA is worse, but I think a big part of the overall impact is the extra .24 innings per game the Others are pitching compared to last year.    And the reason for that is different than you might think -- it's not that the starters have been getting less deep into games (5.46 IP/start last year, 5.42 IP/start this year).   It's mostly that the O's have played a lot of extra inning games this year so far -- they've pitched 15.1 extra innings so far this season, compared to a total of 17 all of last year.   Of course, the team is 7-1 in those games, so a little tough to complain.

Overall, I think the Others have done an OK job.   You can't expect too much from relievers 5-17.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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Very interesting stuff, thanks.

Givens/Brach/O'Day have been pretty much lights out for almost 3 weeks now, after struggling early.   That's a good sign.

I think the performance of the other guys has been more "schizophrenic" than normal.   Some really great long relief outings from the likes of Asher, Ynoa, and even Ubaldo twice.   And then some really awful outings from some guys here and there, including Ubaldo Saturday.   I would guess there have been more outings outside one standard deviation either way by those guys than last year.   And of course we remember the awful ones the most.

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OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

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o

 

As Frobby has alluded to before, the bullpen appears to have rebounded from that bad stretch that they went through several weeks ago ...... and the biggest reason for that failure was probably overuse (especially with Brad Brach.)

 

Showalter gets criticized a lot for his decisions on when to pull a starter and/or which relievers to use, but I believe that he also ought to get some credit for his macro-managing (the whole season, as opposed to individual games) the heart of the bullpen (Brach, O'Day, and Givens) back to its usually reliable self over the last few weeks.

 

And all of this macro-managing AND micro-managing combined has had to be been done in the absence of the best Oriole reliever of them all (Zach Britton.)

 

o

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FlipTheBird All-Star

FlipTheBird

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1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

I agree. Negative domino effect.

Well, of course.

And a side-effect of that is that it leaves Buck even more gun shy about potentially using a guy like O'Day when the team is trailing by a run or two. When he's got O'Day AND Brach in setup roles, he's more likely to pull the trigger on using a "high-leverage" guy to keep the game close, rather than trying to get by with Hart or Ubaldo or whomever else.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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6 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Definitely goes to show you how important Britton is. But perhaps more importantly it shows you how much impact depth there's in the minors for the bullpen: pretty much none.

Yacabonis, Lucas Long, Jackson may help, Aquino is starting to pitch better. And then there is Tanner Scott who in not ready yet but has a lot of promise.

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LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

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16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yacabonis, Lucas Long, Jackson may help, Aquino is starting to pitch better. And then there is Tanner Scott who in not ready yet but has a lot of promise.

My issue w/ Yacabonis is his strikeout rate at AAA...as well as his walk rate. We're talking about a 1.0 ratio right now. 5.1 SO/9 (too low) and 4.8 BB/9 (way too high). Granted that's only 28 IP...but he doesn't really strike me as an impact arm.

Lucas Long is interesting due to his low walk rate. It looks like the conversion to a reliever is working well...and he stands out to me the most.

Aquino I'm not sold on until he can get his walk rate in order. Maybe in the future, but not now.

Tanner Scott...too soon. I know we like the big guy since he's a lefty who can throw over 100mph. But he's also a guy who's shown flashes of brilliance where his walk rate is fantastic...only to revert to walking nearly a batter an inning. He has a career MiLB BB/9 of 6.7. This year it's 6.0. And even though he's had back to back appearances going 3 IP and no walks, the last 3 appearances he walked 7 batters in 9 innings. 

His control is definitely a concern. His progression:

  • Age 19: 7.8 BB/9 in 23 IP
  • Age 20: 4.7 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP
  • Age 21: 8.0 BB/9 in 64 1/3 IP
  • Age 22: 6.0 BB/9 in 33 IP

Now, he's still young. And not to say that Tanner Scott will ever be Aroldis Chapman, but it's important to note that Chapman did have significant control issues in the minors w/ a 5.1 BB/9 in 3 seasons with a 4.67 ERA. Of course he mitigated that with an elite 12.1 SO/9 coupled with a 7.9 H/9. Tanner Scott has a 11.5 SO/9 and 6.1 H/9 in 4 seasons in the minors (with a 4.09 ERA). If he can get his walk rate to around 4 I'd be less bearish on him.

I guess all in all, I don't think any of the guys listed are impact guys at this juncture. Edwin Jackson might be better than our 7th guy in the bullpen, but that's not saying much considering our 4-5-6-7 guys are Hart, Bleier, Ubaldo and Wright. And if you're keeping track at home they either have very pedestrian peripherals (Bleier), regressed majorly (Hart), are just downright awful (Ubaldo) or still showing signs that they're not quite there (Wright).

So, I'd be 100% on board with us DFA'ing Ubaldo for Edwin Jackson...because YOLO and why the hell not? And then if (when?) Jackson falters bring up one of the guys you mentioned.

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PaulFolk Hangout Grand Counsel

PaulFolk

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15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

GBOB has pitched the same IP as last year. Except there is no Britton.  So the three of them are covering the innings. 4 guys vs 3 and they lost a guy with a 1 ERA. 

Not exactly. As Frobby mentioned, O'Day was hurt for much of last year. So he didn't contribute that much to the GBOB quartet last year, just as Britton hasn't this year.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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19 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

My issue w/ Yacabonis is his strikeout rate at AAA...as well as his walk rate. We're talking about a 1.0 ratio right now. 5.1 SO/9 (too low) and 4.8 BB/9 (way too high). Granted that's only 28 IP...but he doesn't really strike me as an impact arm.

Lucas Long is interesting due to his low walk rate. It looks like the conversion to a reliever is working well...and he stands out to me the most.

Aquino I'm not sold on until he can get his walk rate in order. Maybe in the future, but not now.

Tanner Scott...too soon. I know we like the big guy since he's a lefty who can throw over 100mph. But he's also a guy who's shown flashes of brilliance where his walk rate is fantastic...only to revert to walking nearly a batter an inning. He has a career MiLB BB/9 of 6.7. This year it's 6.0. And even though he's had back to back appearances going 3 IP and no walks, the last 3 appearances he walked 7 batters in 9 innings. 

His control is definitely a concern. His progression:

  • Age 19: 7.8 BB/9 in 23 IP
  • Age 20: 4.7 BB/9 in 42 1/3 IP
  • Age 21: 8.0 BB/9 in 64 1/3 IP
  • Age 22: 6.0 BB/9 in 33 IP

Now, he's still young. And not to say that Tanner Scott will ever be Aroldis Chapman, but it's important to note that Chapman did have significant control issues in the minors w/ a 5.1 BB/9 in 3 seasons with a 4.67 ERA. Of course he mitigated that with an elite 12.1 SO/9 coupled with a 7.9 H/9. Tanner Scott has a 11.5 SO/9 and 6.1 H/9 in 4 seasons in the minors (with a 4.09 ERA). If he can get his walk rate to around 4 I'd be less bearish on him.

I guess all in all, I don't think any of the guys listed are impact guys at this juncture. Edwin Jackson might be better than our 7th guy in the bullpen, but that's not saying much considering our 4-5-6-7 guys are Hart, Bleier, Ubaldo and Wright. And if you're keeping track at home they either have very pedestrian peripherals (Bleier), regressed majorly (Hart), are just downright awful (Ubaldo) or still showing signs that they're not quite there (Wright).

So, I'd be 100% on board with us DFA'ing Ubaldo for Edwin Jackson...because YOLO and why the hell not? And then if (when?) Jackson falters bring up one of the guys you mentioned.

O's are not thinking for DFAing Ubaldo or they would not have DFA'd Fry.

Bleier has been better than expected so far.

 

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