Taking in the big picture before the 1st pick..

[RVAbird]

What if they are rated equally? The system is short on power hitters no doubt, but if the O's believe they can sign Tex this winter, why not go for the #2 starter?

It's an interesting dilemma if you ask me. Fascinating really...

If they do indeed rate equally, then I wouldn't be as upset. I still think Tex is a terrible tie breaker, but I wouldn't be as upset as if they were reaching a slot for him.

However, I was speculating on your suggestion that Jordan preferred a bat and Angelos/MacPhail were urging him to go with a pitcher due to the possibility of signing Tex. If what you said is true, that's very scary.

[Crazysilver03]

I wonder if we also have some deals on the table to trade some of our young pitching.

Liz and Olson have pretty much forced their way onto the Orioles, Loewen and Ray are on their way back from injury. We just dont havce as much space in the majors for everyone and some pitchers are going to have to go. I wonder if we will trade some of these pitchers for a SS or a 1B after the draft.

[BaltimoreTerp]

If Tex does not sign here this off season and Matusz becomes a number two starter in a few years with the orioles, did they still make a mistake? Even if Smoak becomes the next Jay Bruce kind of hitter?

It doesn't matter if your pitching staff only gives up one run if your offense scores none

[Hazmat]

Thanks for the info, Tony. I agree with most of the sentiments posted in this thread. I don't think we should draft on the assumption we will sign Tex. Take the 1B (Smoak) and put the money towards upgrading another position. I don't want to see Millar-types playing 1B for the next 5 years. I want a legitimate power threat.

[Crazysilver03]

If Tex does not sign here this off season and Matusz becomes a number two starter in a few years with the orioles, did they still make a mistake? Even if Smoak becomes the next Jay Bruce kind of hitter?

I would think it is a mistake. If we cant create a five man rotation with what we already have in the system, than Matusz wont really help.

[Ruzious]

Unless they have handshake agreement with Tex passing on Smoak is a huge mistake. Tex isn't a lock to wind up in a Orioles uni. I don't care how hard they pursue him. Unless they are guaranteed to land him, they can't base the draft on assuming that they sign him.

They CAN'T have a handshake agreement with Teix, and we've got a lawyer for an owner - who has a reputation to uphold (other than as an incompetent owner ).

[tywright]

If they are going to look big picture, they should be taking Gordon Beckham.

G. Becks is NOT on their radar

The SS position will be solved by trading a pitching prospect or 2. That's why they're collecting pitching prospects so they can trade the ones who aren't going to fill out our rotation in 2010/11.

[JTrea81]

They CAN'T have a handshake agreement with Teix, and we've got a lawyer for an owner - who has a reputation to uphold (other than as an incompetent owner ).

My point exactly. Since they can't legally have an agreement with Tex, they can't guarantee he'll be an Oriole, therefore Smoak would be the best choice because right now we don't have a switch hitting 1B man that can hit 35 plus HRs and hit for average in our organization. We've got Tillman, Arrieta, Spoone and we've already got Guthrie, Olson, Loewen and Cabrera in the majors. Pitching is not a weakness. Hitting is. The problem is Jordan drafted HS bats with upside, but our coaching staff can't seem to develop them. Therefore we need college bats that are surefire MLers. Wieters is one, Smoak is another. We grabbed Jones, who the Mariners developed and he should hit his potential right around when Wieters and Smoak reach theirs.

A lineup of:

Roberts

Markakis

Wieters

Smoak

Jones

is a nice start. Add Tex and it becomes one of the best in the AL...

[Mackus]

If they are going to look big picture, they should be taking Gordon Beckham.

If you have GBeckham graded similar to Matusz, and Crow… you have to go with the bat.

If you have G.Beckham graded similar to Smoak, or Hosmer… you have to go with the SS.

I think the obvious answer to this is that nobody has GBeckham graded similarly to Smoak or Matusz. He seems to be on a lower tier.

[Stotle]

I guess I am in the minority -- hardly new

I have Matusz ever-so-slightly ahead of Smoak on my board, and think he is an excellent pick if Alvarez and Tim Beckham go in the top three picks.

Generally, I do agree you shouldn't depend on FAs signing, but if AM and PA have both decided Baltimore's offer will be the best no matter what, I think it's okay to weigh that into your decision, so long as it isn't the dominant reason for avoiding a 1b at 1:4.

I don't know if any of that made sense, but there it is

[tywright]

How many teams in baseball have 2 potential ace's in their system? Not to mention 3-4 potential #3 starters. Do we really need Matusz right now??

[Stotle]

How many teams in baseball have 2 potential ace's in their system? Not to mention 3-4 potential #3 starters. Do we really need Matusz right now??

I know I'm alone, but I think every team needs a Matusz.

[hoosiers]

If Jordan prefers Smoak, then that's the way we should go, IMO.

IMO, Tex should not figure into this at all. Smoak would not be up for a year or two anyway - so any overlap would be for maybe four years. I think it's poor judgement to base a draft decison on potentially outbidding the NYY and BoSox for a $15M-$20M FA.

[markpolis]

Wow! I truly hope that signing or not signing Texiera this offseason has ZERO factor into who we select with our first pick. As an organization you cannot makes choices based on something that may or may not happen in the future. (unless of course they have a Crystal Ball I am not aware of)

Hopefully JJ will take the player he has highest on his board, whether it's Matusz or Smoak, regardless of any player we may pursue in the offseason.

BTW, am I the only one who thinks $150mil for Texiera is a waste of money? Honestly, would we be going that hard for Texiera if he was born in any other state?

[Hank Scorpio]

How many teams in baseball have 2 potential ace's in their system? Not to mention 3-4 potential #3 starters. Do we really need Matusz right now??

How many have 3 potential aces?