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Manny is hitting in July


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25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Or you know, maybe, all those hard hit balls are finally turning into hits.

This whole Manny is struggling thing is so overdone in these parts.

 

Are you choosing to ignore his K rate?  BAbip is as much about approach as it is luck.

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8 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

Are you choosing to ignore his K rate?  BAbip is as much about approach as it is luck.

Pretty sure BABIP is mostly about luck.  Maybe 75/25.  As for his K rate, he is on pace for 138 K's/162.  In 2015 he had 111, in 2013 he had a K/162 pace of 117, in 2016 it was 124.  Do you really think that number is alarmingly above career norms?

 

BTW I'm not suggesting he hasn't struggled, just that folks here are taking it way out of proportion.

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2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Pretty sure BABIP is mostly about luck.  Maybe 75/25.  As for his K rate, he is on pace for 138 K's/162.  In 2015 he had 111, in 2013 he had a K/162 pace of 117, in 2016 it was 124.  Do you really think that number is alarmingly above career norms?

 

BTW I'm not suggesting he hasn't struggled, just that folks here are taking it way out of proportion.

 

If his BAbip is mostly luck then I guess his K rate is too, because I see a pattern:

K Rate - BAbip

July 12.2 - .372
June 17.8 - .243
May 25.4 - .205
April 17.6 - .234

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4 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

 

If his BAbip is mostly luck then I guess his K rate is too, because I see a pattern:

K Rate - BAbip

July 12.2 - .372
June 17.8 - .243
May 25.4 - .205
April 17.6 - .234

I'm sticking with the dangers of small sample size.

All of those sample sizes are too small to be actually meaningful.

I'm guessing your theory is that the same issues that are causing the higher K rate are also causing balls to be struck at a high velocity yet in such a manner that they are easier for defenders to convert into outs?

 

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38 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

This isn't true.  Arenado is the best right now and given Manny's struggles this year it's not too close.  That said, I realize Coors has an effect on numbers.

Arenado is overrated because of your last last sentence. wRC+ has him at 113, which is park adjusted. That ranks him as the 9th best hitter among qualified third basemen. Arenado is very good, but he is not an elite hitter despite his slash line. WAR has Rendon as already being a 5 win player this season, followed by Jose Ramirez and Kris Bryant. Arenado comes in at 4th because his defense is actually elite.

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Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sticking with the dangers of small sample size.

All of those sample sizes are too small to be actually meaningful.

I'm guessing your theory is that the same issues that are causing the higher K rate are also causing balls to be struck at a high velocity yet in such a manner that they are easier for defenders to convert into outs?

 

No. My theory is that although he may have been hitting some high velocity outs, many more of his outs were of the infield pop-up, ground out variety, caused by the same issues that lead to a high K rate.

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45 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

This isn't true.  Arenado is the best right now and given Manny's struggles this year it's not too close.  That said, I realize Coors has an effect on numbers.

How about Kris Bryant? Manny's a shade younger and probably better defensively, but Bryant has to be part of the discussion, IMO: 

2015

Bryant - 6.6WAR / .858OPS

Machado - 6.8WAR / .861OPS

2016 

Bryant - 8.4WAR / .939OPS 

Machado - 6.5WAR / .876OPS 

2017

Bryant - 3.0 WAR / .922OPS 

Machado - 2.0 WAR / .754OPS 

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