The Wildcard Race

[ORIOLE33]

9 hours ago, MDK02 said:

This team isn't getting a WC spot. Yanks are pulling away from us and we keep finding ways to lose.

Agreed. Last night convinced me that it's not happening this year.

[mdbdotcom]

OPS over the past 28 days

Not everyone has joined the race:

• Trumbo - .458
• Rickard - .571
• Davis - .632
• Gentry - .652

But most have:

• Machado - .824
• Joseph - .827
• Mancini - .835
• Jones - .903
• Beckham - .927
• Schoop - .928
• Casatillo – 1.032
• Smith – 1.044

[PaulFolk]

10 hours ago, MDK02 said:

This team isn't getting a WC spot. Yanks are pulling away from us and we keep finding ways to lose.

We don't have to catch the Yankees to get a WC spot. The second wild card is very much up for grabs right now. A bunch of mediocre teams all clumped together -- Twins (58-56), Angels (59-58), Mariners (59-58), Rays (59-58), Royals (57-58), Orioles (57-59).

Granted, I don't think the Orioles are getting a WC spot, either. But nobody seems to be staking a claim on the second WC spot, so it's not out of the question.

[mdbdotcom]

5 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

We don't have to catch the Yankees to get a WC spot. The second wild card is very much up for grabs right now. A bunch of mediocre teams all clumped together -- Twins (58-56), Angels (59-58), Mariners (59-58), Rays (59-58), Royals (57-58), Orioles (57-59).

Granted, I don't think the Orioles are getting a WC spot, either. But nobody seems to be staking a claim on the second WC spot, so it's not out of the question.

It certainly looks like the 2nd AL wildcard spot will go to a team that does not deserve to be in the playoffs and will get in because of the rules rather than the merit of their play.

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

It certainly looks like the 2nd AL wildcard spot will go to a team that does not deserve to be in the playoffs and will get in because of the rules rather than the merit of their play.

 I agree with you but the Cardinals won a WS with a division title with a record of 83-78 in 2006.  

Every year is different. When we won the WC in 2012, Tampa won 90 and was eliminated with 3-4 days left. 

We really need a 5/6 game winning streak. The Twins just did that.  We had a 5 game winning streak but have gone 2L, 3W, 2L, 1W, 1L.  

One good or bad week changes it all. I still look at the 16 of 19 at home after this road trip. We just can't get buried this trip. I don't see all of these teams being in it with 2/3 weeks left. A couple will fade.  

[mdbdotcom]

24 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 I agree with you but the Cardinals won a WS with a division title with a record of 83-78 in 2006.  

Every year is different. When we won the WC in 2012, Tampa won 90 and was eliminated with 3-4 days left. 

We really need a 5/6 game winning streak. The Twins just did that.  We had a 5 game winning streak but have gone 2L, 3W, 2L, 1W, 1L.  

One good or bad week changes it all. I still look at the 16 of 19 at home after this road trip. We just can't get buried this trip. I don't see all of these teams being in it with 2/3 weeks left. A couple will fade.  

I'd like to see them establish a wins floor for wildcard qualification, say 87 wins. If only one second-place team wins 87 games or more, then there is no play-in game. Make the 162 game season mean something.

[eddie83]

16 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd like to see them establish a wins floor for wildcard qualification, say 87 wins. If only one second-place team wins 87 games or more, then there is no play-in game. Make the 162 game season mean something.

What about all the division winners over the years with records lower than that? 87 Twins won 85 games and the WS. 

They have made the regular season mean more by adding another WC, before WC teams didn't have home field but were guaranteed a series.  

The NFL is worse. I think 3 teams have won division titles with losing records.  

[tntoriole]

44 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 I agree with you but the Cardinals won a WS with a division title with a record of 83-78 in 2006.  

Every year is different. When we won the WC in 2012, Tampa won 90 and was eliminated with 3-4 days left. 

We really need a 5/6 game winning streak. The Twins just did that.  We had a 5 game winning streak but have gone 2L, 3W, 2L, 1W, 1L.  

One good or bad week changes it all. I still look at the 16 of 19 at home after this road trip. We just can't get buried this trip. I don't see all of these teams being in it with 2/3 weeks left. A couple will fade.  

Seattle is ahead of us.  We play three against them.   Let's see how the next five play out.  If we win four out of five....OK.  If not...less and less likely.  Particularly if teams ahead of us get hot before we do.  Like Twins winning 6 in a row.  And Angels winning 4 in a row.    MLB rankings had our percentage projection at the Wild Card at 6.7 percent today.   

[El Gordo]

We need a 5 G + winning streak soon or we're toast.

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

It certainly looks like the 2nd AL wildcard spot will go to a team that does not deserve to be in the playoffs and will get in because of the rules rather than the merit of their play.

It sure does. 

[Spy Fox]

I know that we're close enough to still have a chance, but just for my own sake I'm not focusing on the standings much until/unless we're over .500.

I think we'll get there, but when our record has more losses than wins it's hard for me to feel like we're a real player in the race. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I know that we're close enough to still have a chance, but just for my own sake I'm not focusing on the standings much until/unless we're over .500.

I think we'll get there, but when our record has more losses than wins it's hard for me to feel like we're a real player in the race. 

I agree with that, and Buck has said as much.   

[bpilktree]

16 hours ago, MDK02 said:

This team isn't getting a WC spot. Yanks are pulling away from us and we keep finding ways to lose.

The Yanks are pulling away how. At the all star break.

 Yankees 45-41

Orioles 42-46

4 back

August 1st.

Yanks 57-47

Orioles 51-54

6.5 back

Yanks 61-54

Orioles 57-59

4.5 back

They were they were at all star break and we have gained 2 games since August 1st.  

What will happen is still up for grabs but they are not pulling away by any means.

[SteveA]

In the past few days, the Yankees have:

   -- sent rookie starter Jeff Montgomery down to save innings

   -- put Tanaka on the DL

   -- put Sabathia on the DL (and called Montgomery back up)

   -- had Severino who had been their best pitcher get blasted today

   -- had Jaime Garcia struggle

   -- and this afternoon, the recalled Montgomery who is scheduled to start tomorrow, was hit by a ball in the head while signing autographs and is undergoing tests

   -- Pineda was already done for the year

Despite picking up two starters at the deadline the Yankees starting is on the verge of complete meltdown right now.

[OFFNY]

23 hours ago, MDK02 said:

 

This team isn't getting a WC spot. The Yankees are pulling away from us, and we keep finding ways to lose.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, bpilktree said:

 

The Yankees are pulling away, how?

 

At the All-Star break.

 

Yankees 45-41

Orioles 42-46

4 back

August 1st.

 

Yanks 57-47

Orioles 51-54

6.5 back

 

Yanks 61-54

Orioles 57-59

4.5 back

 

They were they were at the All-Star break, and we have gained 2 games since August 1st.  

What will happen is still up for grabs, but they are not pulling away by any means.

 

o

 

On Friday, the Yankees won and the Orioles lost. They were pulling away then.

On Saturday, the Yankees lost and the Orioles won. Now, the Orioles are gaining ground.

 

o