Projected Orioles Opening Day Payroll 2018

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I agree it’s not rational to cut payroll (thus not signing any decent pitchers) and keep Manny.   But it won’t surprise me if that’s exactly what they do.

I agree it could turn out that way.   But not because they want it to go that way and not because they want to cut payroll.    

I want the O's to sign Cashner, Vargas and Tillman.  That would take a lot of payroll if the incentives for Tillman are included.   But I only give the O's a 20% chance of being able to convince those three to sign with them.

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree it could turn out that way.   But not because they want it to go that way and not because they want to cut payroll.    

I want the O's to sign Cashner, Vargas and Tillman.  That would take a lot of payroll if the incentives for Tillman are included.   But I only give the O's a 20% chance of being able to convince those three to sign with them.

With Cashner, Vargas and Tillman in the rotation, the O's should finish no worse than 5th place in the AL East.

[MikeAD]

27 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't no why you would think that this is the year that Peter would cut payroll if Manny stays.  Peter still wants to win  and would be keeping the team together.  The only reason I see the payroll being cut is if Dan can not convince the FA starters to come to the Orioles.  That is always a possibility.

If that was the plan payroll should be increased next season after Manny stays.   Far better players available next year.  There are no players available on the FA market right now that would put the Orioles in contention.  Which is why it has been the best bet to retool now before next off season with a few trades.

 

On the bright side tons of money coming off the books heading into next off season, so if there is a payroll addition on top of the $$ from the contracts that we lose to free agency, things could be ok.    

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

With Cashner, Vargas and Tillman in the rotation, the O's should finish no worse than 5th place in the AL East.

You see something better than that happening?  

Vargue won 18 game last year.  Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year.  Tillman won 16 in 2016.   I am not saying that any of them will repeat those things but they start from a better place than others I think the O's might sign.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, wildcard said:

You see something better than that happening?  

Vargue won 18 game last year.  Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year.  Tillman won 16 in 2016.   I am not saying that any of them will repeat those things but they start from a better place than others I think the O's might sign.

Do I see anything better than that happening? No. But that doesn't mean I see this as very good, either. I'd rather spend less money on the rotation and trade Manny, Britton and Brach than sign these three hunks of lead. Just try to get ready for 2019 and let the kids play this year. Much more entertaining than trying to convince us that this team can contend. If they really want to contend, start by stepping up and signing Cobb. But we both know that won't happen. So, just take a mulligan on 2018 and forget about it.

[MikeAD]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

You see something better than that happening?  

Vargue won 18 game last year.  Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year.  Tillman won 16 in 2016.   I am not saying that any of them will repeat those things but they start from a better place than others I think the O's might sign.

Its not that there is something better than that.  That might be the best 3 pitchers the Orioles can bring in, everything else considered.  Its that those 3 acquisitions tie up payroll and put us (still) in 4th place in the AL East, and thats if we have no setbacks, injuries, or slumps.  Our best case scenario is not much better by making those additions.  Why spend that money now on players that don't get us where we need to be ?   Win 68-72 games instead of 72-76 and have substantially more $ available heading into next off season when there are better players available.  

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Do I see anything better than that happening? No. But that doesn't mean I see this as very good, either. I'd rather spend less money on the rotation and trade Manny, Britton and Brach than sign these three hunks of lead. Just try to get ready for 2019 and let the kids play this year. Much more entertaining than trying to convince us that this team can contend. If they really want to contend, start by stepping up and signing Cobb. But we both know that won't happen. So, just take a mulligan on 2018 and forget about it.

You are ready to give up on 2018.  I don't think Peter is.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, MikeAD said:

Its not that there is something better than that.  That might be the best 3 pitchers the Orioles can bring in, everything else considered.  Its that those 3 acquisitions tie up payroll and put us (still) in 4th place in the AL East, and thats if we have no setbacks, injuries, or slumps.  Our best case scenario is not much better by making those additions.  Why spend that money now on players that don't get us where we need to be ?   Win 68-72 games instead of 72-76 and have substantially more $ available heading into next off season when there are better players available.  

You seem to think you know what will happen during the season.  But the best scenario is BUndy and Gausman wining 16 each.  Tillman returns to form and winning 16.  Vargas winning 18.  and Cashner winning 11.  That is the best scenario.  It will not happen but we do not know what will happen.  

[mdbdotcom]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You are ready to give up on 2018.  I don't think Peter is.

I'm ready to give up on 2018 if we are not going to get any better pitching than we had with Gallardo and Miley - both of whom had some decent stats before they showed up in Baltimore. And to me, signing those guys means that he has given up as well. He just might not realize it. 

BTW - It really makes me uncomfortable when you refer to Angelos by his first name.

[mdbdotcom]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You seem to think you know what will happen during the season.  But the best scenario is BUndy and Gausman wining 16 each.  Tillman returns to form and winning 16.  Vargas winning 18.  and Cashner winning 11.  That is the best scenario.  It will not happen but we do not know what will happen.  

Even if it does happen, we'll still be in the gutter if Davis and Trumbo don't return to form. You keep ignoring the fact that our offense also took a steep downturn last year. And so did our defense. That team was bad in so many ways, adding three Hail Mary starter is not going to fix anything. 

If Angelos wants to win, it's time to buy some good pitching. Get in the game or go home. 

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

 

BTW - It really makes me uncomfortable when you refer to Angelos by his first name.

Why?

 

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, wildcard said:

Why?

 

It's just creepy. Like he's your friend or something. The thought of being his friend really creeps me out.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I agree it could turn out that way.   But not because they want it to go that way and not because they want to cut payroll.    

I want the O's to sign Cashner, Vargas and Tillman.  That would take a lot of payroll if the incentives for Tillman are included.   But I only give the O's a 20% chance of being able to convince those three to sign with them.

Signings like that are exactly how they eased into 14 years of losing. Sometimes they have to make a tough short term decision in order for the long term. I don't think they will...but it is my hope.

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Even if it does happen, we'll still be in the gutter if Davis and Trumbo don't return to form. You keep ignoring the fact that our offense also took a steep downturn last year. And so did our defense. That team was bad in so many ways, adding three Hail Mary starter is not going to fix anything. 

If Angelos wants to win, it's time to buy some good pitching. Get in the game or go home. 

You look at Davis and Trumbo and seem to project that they can do better than last year.   i don't know if that is true. Especially if we are talking about the best scenario.

We start with the history and attitude from O's management and probably  ownership that they will not spend big on pitching.  No five year and probably no 4 year contracts.  No getting into bidding war for top pitchers.

With that context  Dan has to thread a needle to try to get the best pitching the team can afford.   There is a small chance he can get any of the three guys I have mentioned.    We will know pretty soon what the O's will do.   Then it may be time to be negative on the season if Dan can't thread that needle.  But I hold out hope for now.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

It's just creepy. Like he's your friend or something. The thought of being his friend really creeps me out.

My baloney has a first name, Its Oscar.  My baloney has a second name its Meyer.  

Peter has been part on the O's fan consciousness since 1993.   When I say Peter most reads know actually who I am talking about .  It differentiates him from John or Lou who are also active with the O's.   I have never met the man.   Sorry you feel it is creepy but I doubt if it changes the way I refer to him.