Slow Offseason around MLB

[OFFNY]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

It’s pretty funny that Dan Duquette might have slowed the whole offseason down with the Machado negotiation.

 

o

 

Which brings back the topic of/possibility of ........

 

Are There Any Benefits to Leaking False Information ???

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/30558-any-benefits-to-false-information/&tab=comments#comment-2231167

 

o

[OFFNY]

23 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

 

It’s pretty funny that Dan Duquette might have slowed the whole offseason down with the Machado negotiation.

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Which brings back the topic of/possibility of ........

 

Are There Any Benefits to Leaking False Information ???

 

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/30558-any-benefits-to-false-information/&tab=comments#comment-2231167

 

o

o

 

P.S. l The subject could be broadened, also. The information that one throws out there doesn't necessarily have to be an out-and-out lie/falsity, but once could throw out the possibility (and keep it out there) of a major potential trade which could buy that person some time in the overall market for other trades and/or the signing of free agents, knowing that it is unlikely (but not completely impossible) that they would get an offer that they would agree to.

 

o

[murph]

Ok, its a new year, everyone is back to work, so things should start heating up real quick any minutes now....right? right? 

[Redskins Rick]

On 12/31/2017 at 12:42 PM, sportsfan8703 said:

It’s pretty funny that DD might have slowed the whole offseason down with the Machado negotiations. 

Its pretty funny that people believe that DD is the cause of all this off-season slow down.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, murph said:

Ok, its a new year, everyone is back to work, so things should start heating up real quick any minutes now....right? right? 

Yawnnnnnnnnnn.

Don't hold your breath.

[Camden_yardbird]

I find it interesting that DD's strategies seem to be taken on by the rest of the league.  One of his initial goals was a lock down bullpen and building a pitching staff from the back forward, which was not a big priority for a lot of teams.  That changed and we have seen this off season and in the past few off seasons a prioritization of bullpen pitchers.

Similarly Dan built around a strategy of late off season additions, hoping to capitalize on lowering demands.  It worked (Cruz) and didn't (ubaldo), but you didn't see many other teams utilizing it.

This year that has flipped on its head.  MLBTR's top 10 free agents haven't signed.  So it will be interesting to see the next alteration Dan makes to keep the Orioles relevant.  Failure to make meaningful additions should push Dan towards trading Manny if the market isn't allowing him to make bargain buys.

[Yardball85]

Per Nightengale, Hosmer has a 7 year, 140M offer from the Padres, and a 7 year, $147M offer from the Royals.  Man, that's a ton of money for Eric Hosmer (insert Chris Davis makes more comments below).

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Per Nightengale, Hosmer has a 7 year, 140M offer from the Padres, and a 7 year, $147M offer from the Royals.  Man, that's a ton of money for Eric Hosmer (insert Chris Davis makes more comments below).

He’ll probably outperform Davis, but I don’t like his chances of being worth $147 mm over the next 7 years.

[Yardball85]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’ll probably outperform Davis, but I don’t like his chances of being worth $147 mm over the next 7 years.

Agreed.  Seven years at $20-21M per year seems like a ton for Hosmer.  5-6 years at 18M sounds about right for him IMHO.  Maybe this will be the first domino.

[bpilktree]

53 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Per Nightengale, Hosmer has a 7 year, 140M offer from the Padres, and a 7 year, $147M offer from the Royals.  Man, that's a ton of money for Eric Hosmer (insert Chris Davis makes more comments below).

The previous 4 years Hosmer has had a War of 9.4  total.  Davis when he signed the 4 previous years he had 14.7 War.   Davis was a much more proven player then Hosmer but I bet his agent wants Davis type money.  It has not worked but it does show that Davis was not a huge overpay some seem to think.

[foxfield]

This has been a crazy offseason for fans of Baseball, not just Orioles fans.  However, whether the reasons are the Orioles, the Marlins or Shohei Ohtani, how must it feel to be a FA in January, 40+ days from reporting...

I would have to think that players, and I heard on MLB radio yesterday that there are 100+ players that expected to be on opening day rosters still unsigned.  I don't think the guys at the top are gonna sweat for some time...However, at some point, this may look like musical chairs and people are gonna fight for a seat.  Anywhere.

[Redskins Rick]

4 minutes ago, foxfield said:

This has been a crazy offseason for fans of Baseball, not just Orioles fans.  However, whether the reasons are the Orioles, the Marlins or Shohei Ohtani, how must it feel to be a FA in January, 40+ days from reporting...

I would have to think that players, and I heard on MLB radio yesterday that there are 100+ players that expected to be on opening day rosters still unsigned.  I don't think the guys at the top are gonna sweat for some time...However, at some point, this may look like musical chairs and people are gonna fight for a seat.  Anywhere.

Clubs who go over the cap for 3 straight years, have to pay a 50% penatly, causing teams to really think long and hard about the luxury cap:

Quote

Competitive Balance Tax: Payrolls are for 40-man rosters and include averages of multiyear contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman’s compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships.

For mlb teams, payroll cost for competitive balance tax is higher than what COTs or Baseball ref is showing.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

The previous 4 years Hosmer has had a War of 9.4  total.  Davis when he signed the 4 previous years he had 14.7 War.   Davis was a much more proven player then Hosmer but I bet his agent wants Davis type money.  It has not worked but it does show that Davis was not a huge overpay some seem to think.

Without exercising hindsight over how the first two years of the Davis deal have gone, the fact that Hosmer is two years younger than Davis was when he hit FA gives him a better chance of performing well in the last few seasons of his deal.

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

The previous 4 years Hosmer has had a War of 9.4  total.  Davis when he signed the 4 previous years he had 14.7 War.   Davis was a much more proven player then Hosmer but I bet his agent wants Davis type money.  It has not worked but it does show that Davis was not a huge overpay some seem to think.

If you’re basing it on past performance, sure.

Davis didn’t profile well going forward and many here warned against this contract. Was there a number and years that were acceptable? Probably. This goes back to allowing the baseball guy to do his job. And having foresight would have prioritized those dollars for a more complete player in Manny. The Yankees (Ellsbury), Red Sox (HRam) and Dodgers can all make a commitment like that and afford to have it fail, the Orioles cannot.

Hosmer may be less of a risk than Davis, but at that length in years and money he’s still an overpay.

[Frobby]

Fangraphs weighs in:  https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-teams-have-learned-to-wait-on-free-agents/