So What is the Plan for Starting Pitching?

[oriole]

1 hour ago, Redskins Rick said:

I dont care if the rule 5 guy is soft tossing, he appears to have very good control and a KO pitcher.

For the record, in my book, 88-92, is not soft tossing, he just isn't a fireballer.

For me, you get in the low 80s, thats soft tossing, but thats me.

 

From what I've read about him he is the type that continually has better results than what his stuff projects him to have. That doesn't inspire confidence but I doubt the New Republic had a whole lot of confidence in an inexperienced farm boy from Tatooine either and just ask the empire how that went so who knows?

[Yardball85]

47 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I agree that some of us are overestimating Machado's trade value, but it is equally clear to me that some of us are underestimating Machado's trade value.  His value is not that of a late first round draft pick.  His value is 2018 Manny Machado plus a late first round draft pick.  Some of us seem to think that 2018 Manny Machado is worthless.  That simply isn't true.  Manny's 2018 value differs depending on a team's perception of their chances to win the world series, but it definitely isn't zero.  As with all trades, the key is to find a deal with a team that considers Machado's 2018 value to be higher than we do.

Good point, I agree.  I just don't know how valuable Manny Machado is to the Orioles, who are likely to struggle to make the playoffs.  Certainly, he is incredibly valuable to a team with realistic playoff aspirations, even with just one year on his deal.

[Can_of_corn]

48 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I agree that some of us are overestimating Machado's trade value, but it is equally clear to me that some of us are underestimating Machado's trade value.  His value is not that of a late first round draft pick.  His value is 2018 Manny Machado plus a late first round draft pick.  Some of us seem to think that 2018 Manny Machado is worthless.  That simply isn't true.  Manny's 2018 value differs depending on a team's perception of their chances to win the world series, but it definitely isn't zero.  As with all trades, the key is to find a deal with a team that considers Machado's 2018 value to be higher than we do.

Sure his value is greater than a first round pick.

But I don't think his on the field value is going to be a difference maker for the Orioles in 2018.

What good is a six win season if it brings the win total up to 79 from 73?

Like I said earlier I think he's worth about 50M in excess value this year.  But if the O's don't like the offers now than they probably won't like the offers at the deadline which means they get a pick.

As for your last line I don't think any team thinks Manny's value is equal to or greater than the value the Orioles are assigning it. 

[Number5]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure his value is greater than a first round pick.

But I don't think his on the field value is going to be a difference maker for the Orioles in 2018.

What good is a six win season if it brings the win total up to 79 from 73?

Like I said earlier I think he's worth about 50M in excess value this year.  But if the O's don't like the offers now than they probably won't like the offers at the deadline which means they get a pick.

As for your last line I don't think any team thinks Manny's value is equal to or greater than the value the Orioles are assigning it. 

So we are in agreement.  The key is to find a deal with a team that considers Machado's 2018 value to be higher than we do.

[webbrick2010]

6 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Multiple reports have stated that we aren't even close to a deal with anyone.   One report said other teams would have to drastically upgrade their offers to make something happen.    It seems, to me, that the Orioles are placing a value on Machado that not one of the teams pursuing him feels is appropriate.    Are the Orioles wrong or is it everyone else?

From December 21.

Per USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Orioles said Thursday that "unless someone drastically changes their offer" Machado will remain with the team. 

The question is why the Orioles value Manny so highly?

They finish in last with or without him, do they really think there will be a big attendance difference between a 72 win team without Manny and a 75 win team with him? Their analysts must say so.

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Multiple reports have stated that we aren't even close to a deal with anyone.   One report said other teams would have to drastically upgrade their offers to make something happen.    It seems, to me, that the Orioles are placing a value on Machado that not one of the teams pursuing him feels is appropriate.    Are the Orioles wrong or is it everyone else?

From December 21.

Per USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Orioles said Thursday that "unless someone drastically changes their offer" Machado will remain with the team. 

The Orioles certainly aren't wrong to seek as much as possible in any trade for their superstar.  It would, of course, be wrong to panic and take a poor offer with so much time remaining in the off season and with numerous teams still reported to have interest.  Other teams certainly aren't wrong to try to get the Orioles to trade Manny for a weak offer, if possible.  If the Orioles really want to trade Manny, they will, but they are trying to get as much return as possible, which they should.  Is Bob Nightengale wrong again?  Probably, but that's his job.

[jamalshw]

10 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

The question is why the Orioles value Manny so highly?

They finish in last with or without him, do they really think there will be a big attendance difference between a 72 win team without Manny and a 75 win team with him? Their analysts must say so.

I really want to know what the offers are. There's a chance what we're hearing is false and they really aren't worth pulling the trigger. That said, if there is a Montgomery and Almora or Montgomery and Russell package on the table, I'd hope they'd take it.

[big_sparxx]

Anyone looking at this problem without trying to trade Manny? That's what we should be doing. The rotation problem will still be here come the end of Feb.

 

Wonder what we'd get for Schoop....

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, big_sparxx said:

Anyone looking at this problem without trying to trade Manny? That's what we should be doing. The rotation problem will still be here come the end of Feb.

 

Wonder what we'd get for Schoop....

That is a question for the 2018-2019 version of Orioles' Offseason Home Edition.

[Aglets]

On 12/28/2017 at 11:09 AM, Aglets said:

Ah, good call.  yea they probably have to do something by then.  I noticed it's in late January this year (the 27th), wonder if that was intentional.  OK i revise my deadline to 1/27. 

Over / under is at 1.5 SP.    go!

I'll take the under.

Really liking my prediction from last December now........  

[wildbillhiccup]

Vargas will be their big signing (on a two year deal). And his era will regress to the high 4s playing half his games in Camden Yards. Then they'll sign Liriano and resign Tillman to compete for the other spots. So at the end of the day their pitching might be slightly better, but not by much. 

[clapdiddy]

Just now, wildbillhiccup said:

Vargas will be their big signing (on a two year deal). And his era will regress to the high 4s playing half his games in Camden Yards. Then they'll sign Liriano and resign Tillman to compete for the other spots. So at the end of the day their pitching might be slightly better, but not by much. 

If Vargas had a high 4 ERA, that would be a huge improvement over the Tillman, Miley, Ubaldo trio.   

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

If Vargas had a high 4 ERA, that would be a huge improvement over the Tillman, Miley, Ubaldo trio.   

We've really set the bar high, haven't we?

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

We've really set the bar high, haven't we?

As to Vargas, we’re probably setting the bar at a realistic level.   Though I’d hope for mid-4’s for him.   

[jamalshw]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

As to Vargas, we’re probably setting the bar at a realistic level.   Though I’d hope for mid-4’s for him.   

I think that's fair. I think expecting his ERA to be around his FIP from last year (4.67) is reasonable. Sadly, I'd happily take that if the contract was right. I'd hope he's be providing that from the No.4 or No.5 spot in the rotation rather than third. I'm not opposed to a Vargas signing at all, but I don't want him to be the best of the starters added which is what would likely happen.