File and Trial Arbitrations?

[weams]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

OK, you’ve convinced me, more or less.    The cumulative stats are a bit misleading, because Betts played about 1/3 of a season in 2014, whereas Bryant debuted in 2015.     Still, service time is a factor that’s part of the equation.   Truth is, the offensive difference in the two players as measured by conventional stats is not as big as I’d supposed.  

Yeah, players like to be judged by stats they can see and feel.

[Luke-OH]

Mark your calendars.

[Frobby]

On 1/12/2018 at 10:14 PM, Frobby said:

Gausman is at $6.235 mm, O’s at $5.3 mm.

I say, split the difference and call it a day.   

So, I had Gausman at $5.25 mm last August.    MLBTR had him at $6.8 mm.   He made $3.45 mm last year as a Super-2.

I think Gausman’s best comp is probably Michael Wacha, drafted the same year as Gausman.   Wacha has slightly more service time, slightly better career numbers, and slightly better numbers from 2017.

Wacha: 4.062 years of service, 3.84 ERA, 104 ERA+ in 656.2 innings, 4.13 ERA, 103 ERA+ in 165.2 innings in 2017.

Gausman: 3.151 years of service, 4.18 ERA, 101 ERA+ in 639.2 innings, 4.68 ERA, 93 ERA+ in 186.2 IP in 2017.

Wacha is making $5.3 mm this year, exactly what the O’s have offered Gausman.    

I think the O’s have the winning hand here if they go to trial, but I’d toss a few $100 k into the pot to try to avoid the hearing.    

FWIW, Marcus Stroman also was drafted the same year as Gausman, and has similar service time.    He’s asking for $6.9 mm and the Jays have offered $6.5 mm.   His numbers:

3.148 years of service, 3.61 ERA, 118 ERA+ in 562.2 innings, 3.09 ERA, 149 ERA+ in 201 innings in 2017.

[Aglets]

So who will have a happy Valentine's Day?

Gausman or Angelos?

[Frobby]

https://mobile.twitter.com/masnRoch/status/963447029300125696

Gausman signed - no terms reported yet.   

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/masnRoch/status/963447029300125696

Gausman signed - no terms reported yet.   

Definitely a good thing.   Great for both sides.

[Frobby]

Per Roch, $5.6 mm plus $200 k in incentives.    Sounds good to me.  

[Frobby]

So, for our 7 arbitration eligible players, MLBTR had predicted $55.1 mm, I had predicted $53.95 mm, and the O’s came in at $51.865 mm.

 

[weams]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, for our 7 arbitration eligible players, MLBTR had predicted $55.1 mm, I had predicted $53.95 mm, and the O’s came in at $51.865 mm.

 

Still a mighty force to be reconded with, that Orioles legal department. 

[weams]

Quote

"The Orioles have both of their staring pitchers under contract..."

Roch Kubatko

[backwardsk]

Glad the Orioles avoided the hearings.  Check out Stroman and the Blue Jays.  Think he extends?