Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects (2018)

[Luke-OH]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nice to have five names on the list, not so nice to have nobody above 56.   It’s interesting to see KATOH likes Stewart over Hays.    I think KATOH places a lot of value on plate discipline.    

The fact Hays has an identical WAR projection to his midseason KATOH projection makes me think his small sample of MLB defense weighed him down. I know ZiPS and Steamer aren’t high on his defensive projections because of his rough SSS MLB outing. The lack of good publicly available milb fielding data likely leads the creators of these projection systems to weigh MLB fielding data highly.

No inside knowledge, just my hypothesis.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

The fact Hays has an identical WAR projection to his midseason KATOH projection makes me think his small sample of MLB defense weighed him down. I know ZiPS and Steamer aren’t high on his defensive projections because of his rough SSS MLB outing. The lack of good publicly available milb fielding data likely leads the creators of these projection systems to weigh MLB fielding data highly.

No inside knowledge, just my hypothesis.

Which is crazy because his metrics might literally be being dragged down by a single play.  He only had 144.1 innings out there.

[Luke-OH]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Which is crazy because his metrics might literally be being dragged down by a single play.  He only had 144.1 innings out there.

Agreed, but I don’t see any other way of explaining it, available milb fielding metrics favor Hays over Kyle Tucker, as do scouting reports of their defensive abilities, yet Steamer and ZiPS punish Hays defensively in a much more significant way.

[Beef Supreme]

On Monday, January 22, 2018 at 11:45 AM, Fuzzball22 said:

Did this on my own so not sure how accurate it is. Number of top 100 for AL East teams.

Balt 3

Bost 2

NY 5

Tor 4

TB 6

Based on what the media says about the yankees farm system I thought they would have 20 players on the list.

The media overhyping MFY farmhands goes back to The Middle Ages.

[Beef Supreme]

On Thursday, January 25, 2018 at 5:20 PM, MDtransplant757 said:

Judge had no hype. If he played for ANYONE ELSE besides the Yankees, Jays or Red Sox; I'd love him. Great dude with a head on his head. Problem is that he plays for the empire.

Judge had no hype?! He was a first-rounder, even if the back end of the round.

Quote

June 6, 2013, Adam Wells

One of the most incredible physical specimens in this draft, Judge has the most raw power of anyone available.  He won the College Baseball Home Run Derby last year with eight homers in the final round. 
A three-year starter at Fresno State, he earned All-WAC honors in 2011 and 2012. He was named Freshman of the Year in 2011 and played in the Cape Cod League last summer when he hit five home runs.

Hitting: 40/50
Power: 60/70
Plate Discipline: 40/50
Speed: 50/50
Defense: 50/55

 

That's a little bit of hype, isn't it?

[Beef Supreme]

On Thursday, February 8, 2018 at 2:56 PM, Frobby said:

Nice to have five names on the list, not so nice to have nobody above 56.   It’s interesting to see KATOH likes Stewart over Hays.    I think KATOH places a lot of value on plate discipline.  

Is DJ Stewart's ceiling Kyle Schwarber?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Is DJ Stewart's ceiling Kyle Schwarber?

Do we even know what Kyle Schwarber's ceiling is?

[Beef Supreme]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Do we even know what Kyle Schwarber's ceiling is?

Good point. Is Stewart's ceiling what Schwarber is today, rather than what Schwarber's ceiling is?

[Beef Supreme]

33 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Is DJ Stewart's ceiling Kyle Schwarber?

In my mind's eye, Stewart and Schwarber have similar-looking lefty, uppercut power strokes that get to the zone pretty quickly and sweep wide and long around their bellies, staying in the zone for a good length of time.

[Kaven5]

I am much more concerned with Josh Hart's (2013 1st round pick) ceiling. 

He should be much further along four years in. Not again, please.

[Luke-OH]

10 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

In my mind's eye, Stewart and Schwarber have similar-looking lefty, uppercut power strokes that get to the zone pretty quickly and sweep wide and long around their bellies, staying in the zone for a good length of time.

Someone threw a Schwarber comp on him out of Florida State.  I don't think he has the raw power that Schwarber has mainly because he doesn't use his lower half as effectively as Schwarber does.  I think Stewart is a better defender though.

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, Kaven5 said:

I am much more concerned with Josh Hart's (2013 1st round pick) ceiling. 

He should be much further along four years in. Not again, please.

Hart actually looked like a decent player in the video I saw from 2017.  He didn't play much though, and he needs a full, healthy productive season to even get back in the conversation. 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Kaven5 said:

I am much more concerned with Josh Hart's (2013 1st round pick) ceiling. 

He should be much further along four years in. Not again, please.

Wow, I completely forgot about Hart.   Well, you can’t win ‘em all.   If Mullins had been a 1s pick and Hart had been a 13th rounder, I’d be satisfied with what we got out of those two picks, so I’m satisfied with the reverse.   

[Luke-OH]

Baseball America just posted every player that made it on to one of their 5 contributing writers' Top 150 list. Including the next 25 guys outside the top 100.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/ask-ba-who-just-missed-the-top-100-prospects-list-2/#AU4C5mbQJpLYrUXk.97

Orioles were well represented with 8 players.  Tied with the Padres and Pirates for the most in the "Just Missed" list.

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 2/10/2018 at 8:33 AM, Frobby said:

Wow, I completely forgot about Hart.   Well, you can’t win ‘em all.   If Mullins had been a 1s pick and Hart had been a 13th rounder, I’d be satisfied with what we got out of those two picks, so I’m satisfied with the reverse.   

Apparently he wasn't listed in the OH's recent top-50 O's prospects (unless I missed him).

Will be interested to see how he does this year.