What if Arrieta falls to the O's?

[esmd]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

He went to Cubs and got corrected, and went on to a studded career, with some glorious highlights.

Not sure, how much animosity, he is actually carrying.

I'm just reading between the lines of Britton's quotes. 

[Dark Helmet]

Id rather have Lynn and Vargas than just Jake. 

[Aglets]

53 minutes ago, wildcard said:

If the Brewers and Twins sign Lynn and Cobb they will not be in on Arrieta,

Bold prediction:

If they DON'T sign those two guys then they WILL be in on him.

[Redskins Rick]

On 2/12/2018 at 12:20 PM, Dark Helmet said:

Id rather have Lynn and Vargas than just Jake. 

Every time, I think of Vargas, it reminds me of the bad boys 2 movie.

[billw76]

I'd pass unless it was a one year deal. As much as we need pitching giving Jake 4-6 years and $120 or more million would be a huge mistake, I think it would end up making Davis contract look like a good deal.

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, billw76 said:

I'd pass unless it was a one year deal. As much as we need pitching giving Jake 4-6 years and $120 or more million would be a huge mistake, I think it would end up making Davis contract look like a good deal.

Will any team besides the Cubs give him 6 years? I have doubts; Jake will turn 32 in a month or two. I think most teams probably wont go past 4 years. 

[Bradysburns]

6 hours ago, cimota said:

He was offered six years and turned it down.  He will get six years.  

True. He might get it. But you also hear about guys turning down a "lowball" offer... only to be forced to accept less as the season approaches. You see guys get the market wrong on a semi-regular basis. 

I suspect that'll happen to Jake if he turned down 6 years. And he'll be kicking himself.

I'd be concerned with everything other posters have mentioned, along with a rapidly rising WHIP. Certainly GMs are noting the same issues. To my knowledge, he hasn't received any other offers, so a six-year deal would be extremely surprising to me. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

True. He might get it. But you also hear about guys turning down a "lowball" offer... only to be forced to accept less as the season approaches. You see guys get the market wrong on a semi-regular basis. 

I suspect that'll happen to Jake if he turned down 6 years. And he'll be kicking himself.

I'd be concerned with everything other posters have mentioned, along with a rapidly rising WHIP. Certainly GMs are noting the same issues. To my knowledge, he hasn't received any other offers, so a six-year deal would be extremely surprising to me. 

Jake was never offeedr 6 years.   Epstein ask him if he would accept 6/126m  if offered and Jake said no.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Jake was never offeedr 6 years.   Epstein ask him if he would accept 6/126m  if offered and Jake said no.

That is some serious self confidence in this free agent market.

Some would say hubris. 

[Bradysburns]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Jake was never offeedr 6 years.   Epstein ask him if he would accept 6/126m  if offered and Jake said no.

So he hasn't received any offers yet, from anyone. You might be right. He's just the kind of guy the Orioles would target! A guy just a hair past the very peak of his value, with several big question marks.

Maybe they can get into a heated bidding war with themselves and outdo their Chris Davis deal.

[clapdiddy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is some serious self confidence in this free agent market.

Some would say hubris. 

I think there is more nuance to this story.   The reports are that the deal was "similar" to the deal Darvish signed, not exact.

 

[jabba72]

21 minutes ago, Bradysburns said:

So he hasn't received any offers yet, from anyone. You might be right. He's just the kind of guy the Orioles would target! A guy just a hair past the very peak of his value, with several big question marks.

Maybe they can get into a heated bidding war with themselves and outdo their Chris Davis deal.

Not at the prices he's asking they wont. It seems like Arrieta is set on going to the highest bidder. Doubtful thats the O's unless the price seriously drops. 

[esmd]

If he turned down a 6yr deal at 32 years old he's an idiot.  Personally I'd only go with 4 and maybe a club or mutual option, or one that kicks in if certain incentives are met, etc.  And maybe he can do better, but any club that does will regret it I think.  My bet is that he sits out the beginning of the season like the one guy did a few years ago (was it Kendry Morales?), and only signs a deal with team once he hits the deadline to where he wouldn't get credit for a year of service time if he signed afterward.

[orange23]

9 hours ago, bobmc said:

But they could obtain Jake anyway....    

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jake-odorizzi

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/02/sifting-through-spring-training-storylines.html

I don't think trading for Odorizzi would be beneficial for us. We'd probably have to give up a prospect for him. I'd rather settle on a free agent pitcher who doesn't require losing a young guy.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, orange23 said:

I don't think trading for Odorizzi would be beneficial for us. We'd probably have to give up a prospect for him. I'd rather settle on a free agent pitcher who doesn't require losing a young guy.

So not Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn who all require giving up picks.