What if Arrieta falls to the O's?

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, weams said:

He has not had his Tommy John yet and last time they were in there they remove that globular mass. 

Globular mass? He had bone spurs removed. According to projections he’s no more of a risk for TJS (+2%) than league average. 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/04/07/analyzing-chicago-cubs-pitchers-tommy-john-surgery-risk/

He’s been more durable than Darvish the last three years and has averaged more than 30+ starts in that time.

Yes, he had a bit of a down year (123 ERA+, Darvish 122 ERA+) last season, but they could do lot worse than Jake Arrieta and likely will.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Dark Helmet said:

The Brewers have shown they are all in. They will overpay for Arrieta.  Lynn goes to the Twins. Cobb ends up in St. Louis. Cashner will go back to Texas and Vargas ends up with the Yankees.

Orioles left wondering where the starting pitching will come from. 

That sounds completely plausible. Only question is St. Louis. Wouldn't they have signed Lynn at a discount rather than paying full price for Cobb? Maybe they go cheaper with Cashner or Vargas and Texas steps up for Cobb. Overall, I agree, there aren't enough dominoes for any of the top guys to fall to the O's. We certainly aren't getting Arrieta.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Thanks.  This is what I thought originally and 3 or 4 weeks ago it was reported nationally that the competitive balance picks don't count.  This was from a reputable source.  Seems to me it was directly from MLB.  Wish I could remember exactly.  It was discussed at length here.

Oh ok, that’s interesting, I must have missed that thread.

[Number5]

9 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Oh ok, that’s interesting, I must have missed that thread.

Seems unfair for a struggling team from a small market to have to give up a high second round pick to sign a top free agent, but a strong, big-market team to only have to give up a low third rounder if they signed the same guy.  Seems to defeat the whole purpose of having competitive balance picks.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Seems unfair for a struggling team from a small market to have to give up a high second round pick to sign a top free agent, but a strong, big-market team to only have to give up a low third rounder if they signed the same guy.  Seems to defeat the whole purpose of having competitive balance picks.

Big market teams (ones who don’t receive revenue sharing) lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k international money. If those teams exceed luxury tax line then it’s their 2nd and 5th and 1M international money. 

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Big market teams (ones who don’t receive revenue sharing) lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k international money. If those teams exceed luxury tax line then it’s their 2nd and 5th and 1M international money. 

Ah, OK.  That makes sense.  Thanks.

[tntoriole]

28 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That sounds completely plausible. Only question is St. Louis. Wouldn't they have signed Lynn at a discount rather than paying full price for Cobb? Maybe they go cheaper with Cashner or Vargas and Texas steps up for Cobb. Overall, I agree, there aren't enough dominoes for any of the top guys to fall to the O's. We certainly aren't getting Arrieta.

I think the Angels will pick off one of these.  

[Rene88]

Bahahahahahahhahahaha

Wildcard must be on vakay in Colorado. 

[weams]

7 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Globular mass? He had bone spurs removed. According to projections he’s no more of a risk for TJS (+2%) than league average. 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/04/07/analyzing-chicago-cubs-pitchers-tommy-john-surgery-risk/

He’s been more durable than Darvish the last three years and has averaged more than 30+ starts in that time.

Yes, he had a bit of a down year (123 ERA+, Darvish 122 ERA+) last season, but they could do lot worse than Jake Arrieta and likely will.

It was supposed to be bone spurs. When they did it they found something different. Sorry. I don'' have a link but it was well talked about. Jake has been very durable. And good. His velocity has decreased and he has not been one of the Tommy Johns guys. So he could be due. They all seem to break. 

[weams]

7 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

 

Yes, he had a bit of a down year (123 ERA+, Darvish 122 ERA+) last season, but they could do lot worse than Jake Arrieta and likely will.

1

Definitely will. Jake is never coming back. Of his own choices. 

[weams]

7 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Globular mass? He had bone spurs removed. According to projections he’s no more of a risk for TJS (+2%) than league average. 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2016/04/07/analyzing-chicago-cubs-pitchers-tommy-john-surgery-risk/

He’s been more durable than Darvish the last three years and has averaged more than 30+ starts in that time.

Yes, he had a bit of a down year (123 ERA+, Darvish 122 ERA+) last season, but they could do lot worse than Jake Arrieta and likely will.

He was one pre-surgical where they called if a fibrous mass. 

 http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2011/08/03/jake-arrieta-likely-to-undergo-season-ending-elbow-surgery/

[theocean]

7 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Big market teams (ones who don’t receive revenue sharing) lose their 2nd highest pick and 500k international money. If those teams exceed luxury tax line then it’s their 2nd and 5th and 1M international money. 

Another reason why a lot of the big teams want to get under the luxury tax line. 

[bobmc]

22 hours ago, orange23 said:

I don't think trading for Odorizzi would be beneficial for us. We'd probably have to give up a prospect or three for him. I'd rather settle on a free agent pitcher who doesn't require losing a young guy.

FTFY  That's what DD does, like it or not.

[wildcard]

Steve Adams of MLBTR talks about where Arrieta probably  will not go. 

3:21

Arrieta and JD both holdout till the start of the season?

 

Steve Adams

3:21

Doubt it -- especially in Arrieta's case.

 

Rizzo

3:21

Do you see Nats signing artieta

 

Steve Adams

3:24

No, not with the luxury tax implications. They're already going to be over the tax in 2018 as it is, and MLBTR has confirmed that they paid the tax this past season as well. They'd pay a 30% tax on every dollar they spent on Arrieta at this point, which assuredly isn't something they're going to be excited about when Boras is already aiming so high for Jake.

 

3:26

Can you see the Rangers getting in on Jake Arrieta?

 

Steve Adams

3:27

Not unless they completely abandon their stated goal of lowering payroll (or sign him to an insanely backloaded deal -- but even then, Daniels has spoken about wanting to give some love to the farm system this offseason, and signing Arrieta hurts them in that regard

 

3:28

Jake Arrieta to the Dodgers? Good choice for LA is they want rotation depth.

 

Steve Adams

3:29

Again: Luxury tax. If they dump Kemp, maybe they'd be in at a value rate -- but not top-of-the-market dollars. And I can't see them finding a taker for Kemp

 

3:29

Best guess on final years and $$$ for remaining free agent pitchers?

 

Steve Adams

3:31

Arrieta -- somewhere in Zimmermann territory at this point (5/110), possibly with an opt-out. I can't see him topping Darvish.

4:11

Is is safe to assume I'm getting less than Yu?

 

Steve Adams

4:12

I don't see how he tops 126 at this point, but Boras has pulled plenty of rabbits out of his hat in the past. I still say no.

 

3:20

Do you see the orioles signing any pitchers and if you do who ?

 

Steve Adams

3:21

I think they'll add two starters -- at least one via free agency. Could trade for a McHugh or Montgomery type that doesn't have a clear rotation spot in his org anymore. Free agency -- probably no one with a QO attached, and probably no one that requires 3+ years. I'd bet on Jason Vargas or Jaime Garcia type

 

(Notice that Adams does not say who Arrieta will sign with.)

 

 

[Beef Supreme]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Steve Adams of MLBTR talks about where Arrieta probably  will not go.

3:21

Arrieta and JD both holdout till the start of the season?

 

Steve Adams

3:21

Doubt it -- especially in Arrieta's case.

 

Rizzo

3:21

Do you see Nats signing artieta

 

Steve Adams

3:24

No, not with the luxury tax implications. They're already going to be over the tax in 2018 as it is, and MLBTR has confirmed that they paid the tax this past season as well. They'd pay a 30% tax on every dollar they spent on Arrieta at this point, which assuredly isn't something they're going to be excited about when Boras is already aiming so high for Jake.

 

3:26

Can you see the Rangers getting in on Jake Arrieta?

 

Steve Adams

3:27

Not unless they completely abandon their stated goal of lowering payroll (or sign him to an insanely backloaded deal -- but even then, Daniels has spoken about wanting to give some love to the farm system this offseason, and signing Arrieta hurts them in that regard

 

3:28

Jake Arrieta to the Dodgers? Good choice for LA is they want rotation depth.

 

Steve Adams

3:29

Again: Luxury tax. If they dump Kemp, maybe they'd be in at a value rate -- but not top-of-the-market dollars. And I can't see them finding a taker for Kemp

 

3:29

Best guess on final years and $$$ for remaining free agent pitchers?

 

Steve Adams

3:31

Arrieta -- somewhere in Zimmermann territory at this point (5/110), possibly with an opt-out. I can't see him topping Darvish.

4:11

Is is safe to assume I'm getting less than Yu?

 

Steve Adams

4:12

I don't see how he tops 126 at this point, but Boras has pulled plenty of rabbits out of his hat in the past. I still say no.

 

3:20

Do you see the orioles signing any pitchers and if you do who ?

 

Steve Adams

3:21

I think they'll add two starters -- at least one via free agency. Could trade for a McHugh or Montgomery type that doesn't have a clear rotation spot in his org anymore. Free agency -- probably no one with a QO attached, and probably no one that requires 3+ years. I'd bet on Jason Vargas or Jaime Garcia type

 

(Notice that Adams does not say who Arrieta will sign with.)

 

 

I noticed he didn't suggest Arrieta might sign with the Orioles. You know, Arrieta who would "require 3+ years" and "who has a QO attached." The kind of pitcher they say the Orioles will not be signing.

~<1% chance of the Orioles signing Arrieta.