Worse contract-Hosmer or Davis

[Luke-OH]

I think others have made good cases already, but I just wanted to add, the Davis deal (although I wasn't a fan of it) at the time made more sense than the Hosmer deal.  Of course the Davis deal looks worse now, since Davis has aged overnight, losing bat speed, running speed, etc. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, atomic said:

Last 3 years 17.3 WAR Vs 16.4 WAR.   Seems pretty similar.   

If players salaries treated offense and defense equally, you’d have a point, but offense still pays more, whether it should or not.   

But I’m not dogmatic about this.    Reporters and analysts not related to the Orioles have been pretty consistent in predicting $300 mm or even $400 mm for Manny, but they’re not necessarily correct, and I do think it matters how Manny performs in 2018.    

[backwardsk]

51 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Quick contest.  Ground rules: High dollar, long-term deal from the past where you couldn't make the tangibles add up to the dollar value.  But it seemed okay because he was a great guy, a clubhouse leader, the kind of person who everybody wants on their team.  Six or eight years later you look back and think, "wow, that really did work out well."

Name all of them you can think of.  Go.

I'd make an argument for Jayson Werth.  His total WAR times the associated value of one WAR was less than his contract amount.  But his signing was a turning point for a bottom feeder organization.  His contract never impeded them from spending during his years (at least three other nine figure contracts).  In his final years where he didn't bring much value in terms of WAR, he played a lot and they won 95 and 97 games.

[25 Nuggets]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Quick contest.  Ground rules: High dollar, long-term deal from the past where you couldn't make the tangibles add up to the dollar value.  But it seemed okay because he was a great guy, a clubhouse leader, the kind of person who everybody wants on their team.  Six or eight years later you look back and think, "wow, that really did work out well."

Name all of them you can think of.  Go.

Alex Rodr....

oh wait.  He had the tangibles and wasn't a clubhouse leader.

And he was still traded.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Hosmer has an established level of 2.7 WAR/season (last four weighted at 4, 3, 2, 1).  At $8M/win and assuming half a win of decline per season I see Hosmer's value at 4/66 or 5/73.  If for some reason you want him at eight years I don't see any real difference from five or six because he'll have declined to replacement level by then.  When Davis signed his deal that same analysis had him worth about 6/130, at $7M per win then.

It's pretty amazing that even today, with the data and metrics available, teams appear to sometimes pay for free agents as though last year will continue uninterrupted into the player's mid-to-late 30s.

I might be wrong but from watching guys play over the years, it seems guys like Davis with high home run counts, low average, and high strike outs age a lot quicker than guys like Hosmer who hit for a higher average and strike out a lot less.  

[Aristotelian]

12 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Jason Heyward got 188 mil.  Manny will get at least 250.  Probably closer to 300.  

If Manny has a good year with the bat and plays good SS, he will get more than 300. A monster walk year can translate into a lot of money. He is worth more than Stanton. He should get paid more.

[Ripken]

Davis, but it's close.

Both are horrid though.  WTF were the Padres thinking?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, backwardsk said:

I'd make an argument for Jayson Werth.  His total WAR times the associated value of one WAR was less than his contract amount.  But his signing was a turning point for a bottom feeder organization.  His contract never impeded them from spending during his years (at least three other nine figure contracts).  In his final years where he didn't bring much value in terms of WAR, he played a lot and they won 95 and 97 games.

I was very much against that deal when it was signed.  It was 7/126.  What was the value of a win back then?  $5M, $6M?

But if I plug in his 2007-2010 numbers to the same tool I used for Hosmer/Davis I get... 7/126, or exactly what he got. At a starting point of $6M/win with 5% inflation.

In retrospect, that was paying for 18 wins, and he was worth about nine.  And almost all of that nine was in 2013-14.  Two good years in seven.

[webbrick2010]

Has any organization given a 6+ year, 150+ million dollar deal to a player one year removed from hitting .196 for a full season?

Has any ML player who hit .196 for a full season ever been gifted a 6 year contract?

Has any player that uses amphetamines for a ADD condition in concert with a nicotine addition ever been given a 6 year contract? Where were the O's crack medical staff on this issue?

The Davis contract  is one of the worst and most obviously avoidable mistakes in ML history.

[scbalt52]

I actually don't think the Hosmer deal is that bad. I think he'll have a solid 5 years where he's worth it, then be a salary dump to the yankees to be an expensive platoon player for his last 3 years and one of those years he will be miraculously great and hit .400 avg+ against us that year. Sounds about right anyway.

[weams]

I read Hosmer can’t be traded. 

[Il BuonO]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

I read Hosmer can’t be traded. 

Do these teams ever think of not offering a NTC? Foolish especially since the back end of this deal looks less onerous.

[ChuckS]

It seems like another instance of a team bidding against itself.  

Who the hell else was even going to give Hosmer 100 mil?  Like the Davis deal it seems like the team overpaid by about 50 million and 2-3 years for no apparent reason.  

Can you imagine if we were only on the hook for another three years of Davis at 70 million instead of 5/115?  Still bad, but at least you see the light at the end of the tunnel.  

[atomic]

1 minute ago, ChuckS said:

It seems like another instance of a team bidding against itself.  

Who the hell else was even going to give Hosmer 100 mil?  Like the Davis deal it seems like the team overpaid by about 50 million and 2-3 years for no apparent reason.  

The Royals were involved.  I guess they didn't want to do the opt out part of the deal. 

[MDtransplant757]

Davis was worth 14.6 bWAR when he signed the deal

Hosmer was worth 14.1 bWAR when he signed this deal

Going to go with hosmer due to length