What do the starters really need to do for us to contend for a wild card spot?

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

One key difference now though is the strength at the top of the division. The 2nd wild card is huge, because the Yankees and Sox look like juggernauts, but the Jays and Rays are at the very least comparable to us. It definitely allows for more preseason hope. You just get into the game.. Anything can happen.

Although, of course,  the second wild card competition will not be limited to the Jays and Rays...we will be competing with Twins, Angels,Rangers, etc. and whomever else finishes behind the Astros and Indians (for example.).  

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Although, of course,  the second wild card competition will not be limited to the Jays and Rays...we will be competing with Twins, Angels,Rangers, etc. and whomever else finishes behind the Astros and Indians (for example.).  

It should be very competitive.   I doubt the 2nd wild card falls below 90 wins this year.   If Otani is half what he’s cracked up to be, I’d probably favor the Angels.    

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

I think the AL has potential to be very top heavy this year with a large gap between the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Astros, Angels and then the rest of the league.  Barring injuries or players having down seasons.  

[25 Nuggets]

3 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

No, it doesn't. But acquiring or drafting young talented players and then supplementing them with guys like Price, Sale, Kimbrel, etc...

That tends to workout pretty well.

Yeah... on paper they have a very good mix right now.  Would be no surprise if they win the division again over a severely hyped Yankee team.  It would be a surprise if they finish lower than 2nd.  But that's why we play.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Although, of course,  the second wild card competition will not be limited to the Jays and Rays...we will be competing with Twins, Angels,Rangers, etc. and whomever else finishes behind the Astros and Indians (for example.).  

Agreed. It just always felt pretty hopeless in the division knowing that it was likely to be one of the Red Sox or Yankees getting the division and likely the wild card. 

[theobird]

Gausman has to pitch like 2016 or better. Bundy has to make a small, incremental step forward. Cashner has to have a year like last year. Tillman has to be like Tillman pre-2017. Cortes has to pitch 150 innings of decent (4.50-5.00 ERA) baseball. If all of that happens, we could contend for a wild card. Maybe.

[nadecir]

In the new era of baseball teams actively tanking, there'll be an even wider disparity between the really good teams and the really bad teams.

With unbalanced schedules, it's much better to be a division with more than one really bad team.  The Indians and the Twins, like they did last year, will benefit from other level of competition in the AL Central.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, theobird said:

Gausman has to pitch like 2016 or better. Bundy has to make a small, incremental step forward. Cashner has to have a year like last year. Tillman has to be like Tillman pre-2017. Cortes has to pitch 150 innings of decent (4.50-5.00 ERA) baseball. If all of that happens, we could contend for a wild card. Maybe.

I don’t think all those things need to happen.   Three out of five and non-disasters for the other two.    I’m not so worried about everyone having a really good year (for them) as I am about avoiding the really terrible year for anyone.   As the OP points out, we made the playoffs in 2016 despite 88 starts at an ERA of 5.54.     I don’t think we’d be likely to make the playoffs this year if we did that again, but if we had two guys at 4.00 and everyone else averaging 5.00 we’d probably be in the mix.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think all those things need to happen.   Three out of five and non-disasters for the other two.    I’m not so worried about everyone having a really good year (for them) as I am about avoiding the really terrible year for anyone.   As the OP points out, we made the playoffs in 2016 despite 88 starts at an ERA of 5.54.     I don’t think we’d be likely to make the playoffs this year if we did that again, but if we had two guys at 4.00 and everyone else averaging 5.00 we’d probably be in the mix.

Not knowing what the O's will get out of Tillman or the 5th starter limits their chances this season.  They need another good starter.

[mdbdotcom]

Maybe we should take a look at what the starting rotations look like for other teams hoping to land the 2nd wild card.

Blue Jays

• Stroman
• Happ
• Estrada
• Sanchez
• Garcia

Twins

• Santana (DL)
• Berrios
• Odorizzi
• Mejia
• Gibson
• Hughes

Angels

• Richards
• Heaney
• Ohtani
• Shoemaker

How do the O's stack up?

• Gausman
• Bundy
• Cashner
• Tillman
• Cortes (or someone else)

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think the AL has potential to be very top heavy this year with a large gap between the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Astros, Angels and then the rest of the league.  Barring injuries or players having down seasons.  

I think Twins are in that group too. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 2/19/2018 at 5:14 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Did you see the rotographs article about how he was the luckiest pitcher in the majors last year?

 

When Bundy was on, he was one of the nastiest pitchers in the majors.  When he wasn't, he was lucky to make it through 5.  I think a lot of that luck is knowing how "to pitch" better than the average young starter.

I hope for the O's and Bundy he's on more often than not this year and healthy.  No way the O's can be competitive w/o a healthy, good Bundy. 

 

[sportsfan8703]

The Twins and Indians will benefit from playing the rebuilding Royals, White Sox and Tigers 55ish times combined next year. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The Twins and Indians will benefit from playing the rebuilding Royals, White Sox and Tigers 55ish times combined next year. 

At least we’ve got the rebuilding Rays.

[Redskins Rick]

14 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not knowing what the O's will get out of Tillman or the 5th starter limits their chances this season.  They need another good starter.

Haven't got much out of the 4th and 5th starter over the years. 

If Cashner is solid at the #3 slot, and Bundy and Gausman are throwing well at the top of the rotation, then that takes the pressure of the back end guys.

This club can compete, there is enough different arms around now, that they should be able to put the better 2 at SP and the others in the pen.