Give me a reason to be excited about the performance of any of our short-season guys

[skins]

General observation: there is a definitive lack of pitching prospects at the lower levels, but some pos. players that are at least interesting, if not true prospects yet.

Rick Zagone is the one lower-level pitching prospect that has caught my attention to this point. His inflated ERA is deceiving when you consider his awesome peripherals: 14.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 2.33:1 GO/FO ratio

Polanco is the obvious choice among hitters, as he's just crushing the ball AND has improved his BB rate after a poor start. He needs a mid-season promotion if he continues this tear or anything close to it.

Kolodny has an impressive 12% BB rate and a .372 OBP...also, he has heated up with the bat and has a 5-game hit streak, during which he is 6-for-18 with 3 XB hits. And he has made I think just 2 or 3 errors at 3B. An interesting note, he has an extreme FB rate (55%) and plays in a pretty cavernous park, so unless he starts to change his approach he probably won't have very impressive BA and SLG numbers in the NYPL.

Hoes really intrigues me...his ability to adjust so quickly to 2B, where he has been turning DPs and making a lot of plays with minimal errors, is really impressive. So is his BB:K ratio. Despite the poor power numbers, I'm excited about his potential.

There are a number of other interesting pos. players that bear watching at the lower levels...Chmiel, Hudson, Joseph, and Durakis at Aberdeen, Cardona, Rook, West,and Welty at Bluefield, Rosa, Cintron, Gonzalez, and Meyer in the GCL. And obviously Avery, though his early numbers are hard to swallow given his draft position.

I caught the Ironbirds game last nite. Your right, Zagone looks impressive.

[hoosiers]

That's not exactly a comforting list. I realize that making it to the majors is a big accomplishment, but what we're after is players who will have long-term success in the majors, not guys who can fill in for 2 weeks when someone is on the DL.

Good thing Hoes and Avery vaulted above the performances on that list yesterday. We knew Avery was a project when drafted.

I am very, very encouraged by the B/K ratio of Hoes. It would be nice to see him get some XBH and perhaps be Delmarva-worthy next spring.

[Frobby]

Good thing Hoes and Avery vaulted above the performances on that list yesterday. We knew Avery was a project when drafted.

I am very, very encouraged by the B/K ratio of Hoes. It would be nice to see him get some XBH and perhaps be Delmarva-worthy next spring.

Yes, I thought that was a very good point, one that I hadn't focused on.

[Dreadnought]

Avery looks like he was a waste of a draft pick, and so was Hoes.

Mike would know. He knocked Brian Roberts as too small in the years after he was drafted.

Coming next, Mike's stock picks: Buy Enron.

[Flosman]

Mike would know. He knocked Brian Roberts as too small in the years after he was drafted.

Coming next, Mike's stock picks: Buy Enron.

Well really how low can it go.:eektf:

[TakebackOPACY]

Scanning Aberdeen, Bluefield and GCL, I don't see much that has happened to get me turning cartwheels.

Aberdeen has one hitter with an OPS over .763 - Jedidiah Stephen, who is 24 years old. The pitchers who are having some success are all 22-24 years old and are repeating the league after not doing well at Delmarva, except Brandon Clooney, who was a mediocre starter for Bluefield last year at age 21 but has done well in Aberdeen's bullpen so far.

At Bluefield, you have 20-year old Lance West (.255/.375/.660) showing some power and 21-year old Elvin Polanco looking good (.351/.400/.584). OK, I can sink my teeth into that, even though they aren't particularly young for that level. Polanco was pretty good in the GCL last year so he's got a track record. On the pitching side, 21-year old Colin Allen has a 1.56 ERA and a 22-2 K/BB ratio. I don't see much else.

In the GCL, Xavier Avery (.485 OPS) and Jerome Hoes (.651 OPS) aren't getting me too excited, and the only guy with an .750+ OPS, 20-year old Luis Ramirez (.865), hasn't played in a week. The only pitcher who looks remotely interesting is 18-year old Justin Moore, who has posted a 1.29 ERA despite only so-so peripheral numbers.

All this is just based on reading the stats, so if there is somebody I'm missing who's interesting, or if there is someone I mentioned who has good numbers but really isn't a prospect for some obvious reason, please fill me in.

Justin Moore just moved into the early 'wow' category. In the process, he cleaned up those previously "so-so" peripherals.

6 ip, 2 h, 0 bb, 6 K's tonight.

He now has a 0.90 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP after 20 innings pitched.

His K:bb ratio is now 13:3.

[LONGSHOT08]

Actually Zagone isnt the only Pitcher that has had good outings.All of the starting pitchers have had great outings they just arent getting any run support at all. The starting pitchers are almost going into the fourth or fifth innings with 1 or no earned runs. Mccurry is 3 & 0 and Salberg is 3 & 0 Egan has pitched great giving up 1 run last game but still loosing and his record is 0 & 3. Odom has pitched 10 innings in his last 2 starts with 3 earned runs and 17k's and his record is 1 & 3. I see alot of positve from our pitching prospects but very very little from our hitters. We dont have anyone even hitting 300 on this team.

[notfast]

Salberg is a tad old for the league but has been VERY impressive so far this year.

[Jenius]

Actually Zagone isnt the only Pitcher that has had good outings.All of the starting pitchers have had great outings they just arent getting any run support at all. The starting pitchers are almost going into the fourth or fifth innings with 1 or no earned runs. Mccurry is 3 & 0 and Salberg is 3 & 0 Egan has pitched great giving up 1 run last game but still loosing and his record is 0 & 3. Odom has pitched 10 innings in his last 2 starts with 3 earned runs and 17k's and his record is 1 & 3. I see alot of positve from our pitching prospects but very very little from our hitters. We dont have anyone even hitting 300 on this team.

We're not talking about who has put together good outings, we're talking about who is worth getting excited about. None of the guys you mentioned can really be considered a prospect at this point. All are 22-24 years old and have underwhelming overall track records. Odom and McCurry are slightly intriguing...however, they both struggled at Delmarva (not a good sign for a 22-23 yo) and both are up-in-the-zone, flyball (ie HR) pitchers who probably don't have the stuff to consistently get hitters out in AA and AAA, let alone the majors. As for the hitters, you're right in that they're not exactly tearing it up, but Kolodny has been decent and is a prospect, and Hudson (injured) and Chmiel (typically a slow starter) could be interesting as well.

When evaluating both hitters and pitchers in the NYPL, you need to keep in mind that this is a very pitcher-friendly league. The league averages last year were about 4.5 runs/game and a .253/.332/.365 (.697 OPS) line. So, for example, Kolodny's .269/.402/.372 (.774 OPS) line is much more impressive here than it would be in say Bluefield or Delmarva. Likewise, the pitchers' numbers are less impressive in this context.

[Frobby]

Tony posted on the Tracker that Hoes is up to .286/.430/.349 in the GCL. Those power numbers aren't going to scare anyone, but at 2B that OBP will certainly play.

[Stotle]

Tony posted on the Tracker that Hoes is up to .286/.430/.349 in the GCL. Those power numbers aren't going to scare anyone, but at 2B that OBP will certainly play.

I'm skeptical that he develops much power at the pro level -- he's essentially grown into his frame, though I could maybe add some muscle (not much). I don't think BAL was looking for a middle-of-the-order bat when they drafted him. Of course, what do I know?

[Stotle]

But he's certainly not built like a singles hitter. I'm not sure what kind of power he has but I don't think he's pegged to be a .349 slugger at the ML level.

Right. .349 would be quite low, I agree.

Plus-power potential in a small frame -- if pressed to give a prediction I'd say you're looking at a low-double digit HR ceiling at the ML-level, with gap-to-gap power. Maybe something like a Brian Roberts-lite? I'd assume the focus will be on pitch-ID, timing and maybe closing his stride a little to help him work on hitting for power the opposite way.

His quick bat should help in developing his pitch-ID and cleaning up his weight transfer.

[Three Run Homer]

When evaluating both hitters and pitchers in the NYPL, you need to keep in mind that this is a very pitcher-friendly league. The league averages last year were about 4.5 runs/game and a .253/.332/.365 (.697 OPS) line. So, for example, Kolodny's .269/.402/.372 (.774 OPS) line is much more impressive here than it would be in say Bluefield or Delmarva. Likewise, the pitchers' numbers are less impressive in this context.

Kolodny's numbers at Aberdeen so far look a lot like those of Nick Markakis, who hit .283/.372/.395/.767. Good average, good OBP, mediocre power. Aberdeen is death on power hitters.

Of course Markakis was 8 months younger when he played at Aberdeen in 2003 than Kolodny is now, so I'm not suggesting that Kolodny is the next Nick Markakis, but I do think it's fair to consider him as a prospect. He is not old for the New York Penn League and is putting up good numbers.

[Tony-OH]

But he's certainly not built like a singles hitter. I'm not sure what kind of power he has but I don't think he's pegged to be a .349 slugger at the ML level.

Even Jordan admits Hoes power ceiling is probably 15-20 homers a season but probable will settle into a 10-15 guy. If he can draw walks, and hit around .300, he's going to become a very valuable number two hitter or possibly even a lead off guy.

I love the K:BB ratio in the GCL League. Most new professional players are very anxious and with the hot sun and long days, plate discipline is usually not a common occurrence.

However Hoes is showing he has advanced plate discipline and for me, that's a great base to build upon as he matures as a player both physically and mentally.

As for the power, who cares in the GCL League? The fences are usually far, the hitting backgrounds are not great, and in many fields wind can blow in so the last thing I worry about with 18-year old hitters in the GCL League is power numbers.

Age, plate discipline, average then power is how I do statistical analysis in the GCL League.

[Frobby]

Kolodny's numbers at Aberdeen so far look a lot like those of Nick Markakis, who hit .283/.372/.395/.767. Good average, good OBP, mediocre power. Aberdeen is death on power hitters.

Of course Markakis was 8 months younger when he played at Aberdeen in 2003 than Kolodny is now, so I'm not suggesting that Kolodny is the next Nick Markakis, but I do think it's fair to consider him as a prospect. He is not old for the New York Penn League and is putting up good numbers.

I'd agree.