Grade the Gausman Deal

[TommyPickles]

He's looking good so far.  2-1 with a 2.84 ERA as a Brave with 12 Ks/4 BBs. 

It's funny checking the Braves boxscores these days.  "Hmm I see Gausman and Brach both had good nights.  Nick got a hit.  Looks like Flash didn't get in this time..."

Hope they win it all.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, nadecir said:

The Braves have Gausman pitching out of the stretch for the entire game now.  In the last two games, he's thrown 192 pitches - 133 for strikes with two good performances.

 

1 hour ago, nadecir said:

The Braves have Gausman pitching out of the stretch for the entire game now.  In the last two games, he's thrown 192 pitches - 133 for strikes with two good performances.

As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, (1) Gausman has done his best pitching in August and September, and (2) yesterday’s opponent, the Marlins, are the worst hitting team in the NL.    Really, I don’t think we’ll know if Gausman turns any kind of a corner until all results from 2019 are in.

2016 - 2.83 ERA in August/September

2017 - 3.41 ERA in August/September

[99ct]

1 hour ago, maybenxtyr said:

just saying that they didn't get their best return because of O'Day.

I sort of agree, but I've seen very little analysis on this board comparing the value of the saved salary to the value of prospects. That is to say, is a fringe-100 prospect worth more than, say, $10m? 

If we had unlimited $, then of course the answer is to prefer a top prospect over the $. In reality, where money isn't unlimited, I don't know the answer to that.  

 

[nadecir]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, (1) Gausman has done his best pitching in August and September, and (2) yesterday’s opponent, the Marlins, are the worst hitting team in the NL.    Really, I don’t think we’ll know if Gausman turns any kind of a corner until all results from 2019 are in.

2016 - 2.83 ERA in August/September

2017 - 3.41 ERA in August/September

Who knows maybe the Braves discovered something with Gausman by having him pitch out of the stretch.  Here's his splits in 2018:

in 2018 with bases empty: 

 K/9: 6.36   FIP: 5.30  HR/9: 1.9

In 2018 with baserunners:

K/9: 8.62   FIP: 3.27  HR/9: 0.72

[Bradysburns]

3 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

He still had value to a team that had 50 more loses than wins. I don't blame DD. I just think it was short sighted to make a salary dumping to a valuable trade chip.

O'Day serves as an example that Chris Davis isn't going to be DFA'ed anytime soon...if ever. 

This team has maybe 5 players on the 25 man roster that should be here next year. They are no where near competitive, and will not be anytime soon. They absolutely should have maximized their return or waited until winter. I'm not trying to over estimate KG here, just saying that they didn't get their best return because of O'Day.

You won't have to overestimate him when he wins the Cy Young next year. Lol. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Bradysburns said:

You won't have to overestimate him when he wins the Cy Young next year. Lol. 

Its 50-50.

He will either win the Cy Young or blow his elbow and need TJ and be out 18 months,.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

as much as you complain about DD and Orioles, anything they do, you find fault with. Heck, when the Orioles were good, you was wanting a firesale.

I suspect that if Dan had waited until the off-season.

Then you would be crying that he would have got more, if he had traded him, mid-season.

Face it, Gausman was very talented, but at times, very inept and unable to locate the strike zone, which put a lot of balls in play, those that didnt clear the home run fence.. I doubt the 69 Orioles would have done that much more for him, given his issues.

Boy, do you have the wrong poster.

I have been on of the most optimistic posters on the OH for years.   So much so that Tony has called me a homer. But I know a bad trade when I see one.  The O's have/had limited chances to trade players for  top prospects.   They blew that chance in Gausman's  case.    No top 100 prospect returned in the deal.

And as far as Gausman doing better with better support.  Just watch what he does for the Braves.   He will prove my point.

 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, 99ct said:

I sort of agree, but I've seen very little analysis on this board comparing the value of the saved salary to the value of prospects. That is to say, is a fringe-100 prospect worth more than, say, $10m? 

If we had unlimited $, then of course the answer is to prefer a top prospect over the $. In reality, where money isn't unlimited, I don't know the answer to that.  

 

It's not our money and with or without O'Day the team's payroll is still considerably less now than it was 2 months ago (and will be even less after the season ends). And unless the Orioles' invest all of the money saved into international signings, I don't think how you can compare the two. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Boy, do you have the wrong poster.

I have been on of the most optimistic posters on the OH for years.   So much so that Tony has called me a homer. But I know a bad trade when I see one.  The O's have/had limited chances to trade players for  top prospects.   They blow that chance in Gausman's  case.    No top 100 prospect returned in the deal.

 

This, but in larger bolder font/type. 

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Boy, do you have the wrong poster.

I have been on of the most optimistic posters on the OH for years.   So much so that Tony has called me a homer. But I know a bad trade when I see one.  The O's have/had limited chances to trade players for  top prospects.   They blow that chance in Gausman's  case.    No top 100 prospect returned in the deal.

And as far as Gausman doing better with better support.  Just watch what he does for the Braves.   He will prove my point.

 

My apologies.

Ive been slapped by Tony in the past, for being a homer, back in the early days.

But, that doesn't change the AL being tougher to pitch in, then NL

[sevastras]

I don’t think the trade was that bad, but I do wonder why Oday was added. Wouldn’t there be a chance that he pitches well to start next year and could then be traded for a B prospect? Maybe it was a chance they weren’t willing to take with the injury history of Oday. 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

My apologies.

Ive been slapped by Tony in the past, for being a homer, back in the early days.

But, that doesn't change the AL being tougher to pitch in, then NL

As bad as many poster say Gausman is changing leagues will not account for the big chance in his success.  Its having a good team around him that will make the difference.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I don’t think the trade was that bad, but I do wonder why Oday was added. Wouldn’t there be a chance that he pitches well to start next year and could then be traded for a B prospect? Maybe it was a chance they weren’t willing to take with the injury history of Oday. 

The trade was all about money.   But it will cost the O's in the long run because accumulating high quality players in not a easy task and they lost a change to get some with the trade of Gausman.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

As bad as many poster say Gausman is changing leagues will not account for the big chance in his success.  Its having a good team around him that will make the difference.

Its more than that,  maybe pitching out of the stretch is the difference in how he can better locate his pitches.

Zach had his lightblub moment and figured things out, without switching teams, others aren't that lucky.

Ed-Rod had his after his left, and he had good days and still has bad outtings.

I am sure, KG has not turned into a Stud HOF with this trade, but heck, Ive been wrong before.

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Its more than that,  maybe pitching out of the stretch is the difference in how he can better locate his pitches.

Zach had his lightblub moment and figured things out, without switching teams, others aren't that lucky.

Ed-Rod had his after his left, and he had good days and still has bad outtings.

I am sure, KG has not turned into a Stud HOF with this trade, but heck, Ive been wrong before.

Posters have described Gausman as a #4 starter.  Heck Tony was one of them.  He doesn't have to be a HOFer  to be a whole lot better than that.   Wallace was a pretty good pitching coach.  Gausman had a 3.57 ERA and  3.61 ERA with him as his coach.   And I don't think he had to pitch out of the stretch to achieve that.  He did have a better team supporting him in 2014 and 2016 though.  Wallace may be one to the reasons the Braves traded for Gausman. Wallace is, of course, with the Braves now.