Ten for 10 years

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

It's a possibility sure, but the hit tool is king.

I didn't say I would take Tatis over Vlad.

As for hit tool being king, Jesus Montero was graded as having a 70 hit and power tool.

[Frobby]

On 2/9/2019 at 7:37 AM, Frobby said:

If you could have any ten players in baseball over the next 10 years, who would they be?    Don’t worry about whether you have duplicates at certain positions, just pick the guys you think will be the best ten.   Don’t consider salary or contract status, time to free agency, or anything other than who would be the best ten players for the next 10 years.

While this is not intended to be exclusive or exhaustive, here are some players to consider.  (Don’t assume I’m putting them in the order I think they belong in.   I’m just listing them in the order they popped into my head.)

1.   Mike Trout.   He’ll be 27-36 the next 10 years.   64.3 rWAR in 7+ years so far. 9.8

2.   Bryce Harper, 26-35, 27.4 rWAR in 6+ years. 6.0

3.   Manny Machado, 26-35, 33.8 rWAR in 6+ years. 5.4

4.   Mookie Betts, 26-35, 35.2 rWAR in 4+ years. 10.3

5.   Aaron Judge, 27-36, 13.2 rWAR in 2+ years.  6.5

6.   Giancarlo Stanton, 29-38, 39.2 rWAR in 8+ years. 0.8

7.   Carlos Correa, 24-33, 18.2 rWAR in 3+ years. 5.0

8.   Francisco Lindor, 25-34, 23.9 rWAR in 3+ years. 5.8

9.   Jose Altuve, 29-38, 35.2 rWAR in 7+ years. 3.4

10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 20-29, never played in the majors.1.9

11.  Nolan Arenado, 28-37, 33.1 rWAR in 5+ years.   8.1

12.  Alex Bregman, 25-34, 12.7 rWAR in 2+ years. 9.9

13.   Jose Ramirez, 26-35, 22.0 rWAR in 5+ years. 5.5

14.   Christian Yelich, 27-36, 26.2 rWAR in 5+ years.7.1

15.   Matt Chapman, 26-35, 11.7 rWAR in 1+ years. 9.3

16.   Juan Soto, 20-29, 3.0 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.6.7

17.   Ronald Acuna, 21-30, 4.1 rWAR in 3/4 of a year.7.8

18.   Trea Turner, 26-35, 10.4 rWAR in 2+ years.5.4

19.  Andrew Benintendi, 24-33, 7.0 rWAR in 2+ years.1.6

20.   Ozzie Albies, Braves, 22-31, 5.2 rWAR in 1+ years.5.8

Two points:

1.   I have no doubt there are some other guys who haven’t played in the majors yet, or who are just getting started, who deserve consideration for the ten.    These are just the guys who came to mind for me.

2.   You’ll notice there are no pitchers on this list.    Partially, that’s because 10 years is a very long time for a pitcher, and guessing who gets hurt is such a crapshoot.    But some probably do belong in a top 10.    I’ll probably post a second list of possible pitcher candidates when I have time to think of it, but please include pitchers on your list if you think they belong.

 

Thought this would be a fun thread to bump, two years into the ten year period that was discussed in the OP.    The two-year WAR totals for the 20 position players I had suggested are shown in bold above.    Obviously, still a very long way to go to see how this turns out, and nobody was expecting a 60-game season when I started this thread.  
 

Two years in, I’d say Altuve and Stanton are in real trouble, while everyone else is still in play.    

[Just Regular]

On 2/10/2019 at 8:35 AM, OrioleDog said:

At 10 guys, I've got Vlad, but for discussion's sake, I'll say you're crazy if you're putting Eloy or Tatis on.  My last two on were Yelich and Bregman, and as I guess Roy related to us how Frank put it to Bobby Grich, it's all projection until you do it at the major league level.  Vlad's consensus 80-bat is a genuine rarity, and he's 2.5 years younger than Eloy.   Tatis is Vlad's age, but may not hit.

D'oh

[Frobby]

Lots of other guys in play too.   Tons of young players made a mark in 2019-20.  Some guys who were worth at least 5.0 rWAR the last two years:

Tatis 6.7 (will be 20-29 in the 20 year period in question

 Alonso 5.2 (24-33)

Gallen 5.2 (23-32)

Need to run out now and will add to this later.

 

[Sports Guy]

Trout, Franco, Acuna, Tatis, Soto, Robert, Bichette, Rutschman,  Gore, Rocker

[Aristotelian]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Trout, Franco, Acuna, Tatis, Soto, Robert, Bichette, Rutschman,  Gore, Rocker

I think Acuna and Tatis would be 1-2 for me (esp. if we're not doing pitchers). 

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Trout, Franco, Acuna, Tatis, Soto, Robert, Bichette, Rutschman,  Gore, Rocker

If the ten year period were starting next year, I might agree.    But this list was for the 10 years starting 2019, and who knows when Rutschman, Gore and Rocker will reach the majors?     Too much missed time to make this list I think.    But I have no problem with Robert spotting 2019, he’s got enough time to make that up.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

D'oh

In your defense if Vlad can up his launch angle he'll still be a beast on offense.  Of course he's trash on the basepaths and in the field so his value will be limited regardless.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

In your defense if Vlad can up his launch angle he'll still be a beast on offense.  Of course he's trash on the basepaths and in the field so his value will be limited regardless.

It would be very foolish to count young Vlad out.  He’s 21 and already a solid major league hitter. But I’ll say this — he’s far more useless defensively than I’d appreciated two years ago when I started this thread.   He’s already had to move off 3B, and from what I’ve seen he’s a very poor defensive 1B.    He’s going to have to be Miggy Cabrera with the bat to be one of the ten best players of the ten year period in question.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It would be very foolish to count young Vlad out.  He’s 21 and already a solid major league hitter. But I’ll say this — he’s far more useless defensively than I’d appreciated two years ago when I started this thread.   He’s already had to move off 3B, and from what I’ve seen he’s a very poor defensive 1B.    He’s going to have to be Miggy Cabrera with the bat to be one of the ten best players of the ten year period in question.  

If I'm the Blue Jays I'm calling up the most highly regarded swing doctors in the game to work with him.  If he can lift those ground balls into the air he'll put up some big seasons at the plate.

I also have to wonder about career longevity with his weight, but I'd worry about that after he starts lifting the ball.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Lots of other guys in play too.   Tons of young players made a mark in 2019-20.  Some guys who were worth at least 5.0 rWAR the last two years:

Tatis 6.7 (will be 20-29 in the 20 year period in question

 Alonso 5.2 (24-33)

Gallen 5.2 (23-32)

Need to run out now and will add to this later.

 

Some 2018 debut players who’ve done well in 2019-20:

Jeff McNeill 6.2 (27-36)

David Fletcher 6.1 (25-34)

Willie Adames 5.8 (23-32)

From 2017 debut class:

Cody Bellinger 10.5 (23-32)

Paul DeJong 5.5 (25-34)

I haven’t looked at any pitchers yet.  As I said in the OP, it’s really hard to know what pitchers will actually stay healthy for a decade.   But I’ll probably look at the ones I named in one of the posts in the thread, just for laughs.   

[Frobby]

On 2/9/2019 at 8:51 AM, Frobby said:

It occurs to me that Shohei Ohtani is an option.    Among pure pitchers here are some thoughts:

Jack Flaherty, 22,  5.4

Brad Keller, 22, 4.5

Shane Bieber, 23, 7.8

Walker Buehler, 23, 0.5

German Marquez, 23, 5.0

Jose Berrios, 24, 4.0

Luis Severino, 24, 0.6

Aaron Nola, 25, 6.1

I’ll stop there    Honestly I’d take ten hitters before guessing which pitcher would hold up over ten years.   

I added the 2019-20 WAR totals to this post. Bieber is certainly looking like he might be a top 10 guy.    Severino is an object lesson in why it’s risky to list any pitchers.    

[Sports Guy]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

If the ten year period were starting next year, I might agree.    But this list was for the 10 years starting 2019, and who knows when Rutschman, Gore and Rocker will reach the majors?     Too much missed time to make this list I think.    But I have no problem with Robert spotting 2019, he’s got enough time to make that up.   

The problem is, most of the players that you would choose will likely have very little value for the last 2-4 years anyway.

I would rather get these guys in their early and peak years than their down years.

[OriolesMagic83]

I will guess that Tatis, Acuna, and Soto are 3 of the top 10 most valuable players for the next 10 years.  There's probably some top prospect that will debut in the next year or two that will make the top 10 also. 

[survivedc]

If Correa would’ve hit some more homeruns he would’ve been in your Top 10, so what?