O's players on the bubble get fewer and fewer

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Haha, not owned at all. These are good questions. I just happen to find a lot of your questions to be good chances to put out some data and my opinions.It's all good. I appreciate you teeing them up for me!

I just wonder what the probabilities of Wright, or really anyone, to really use the data to transform who they are as a pitcher. In theory, all of the stuff about spin rate and consistency can at least be informed by advanced data. Someone will take that information and really refine their approach. 

Not saying it will be Wright, and I have no reason to believe it will be.

I'm just waiting to see who it will be. I think it's almost guaranteed that some Orioles pitcher (ML or prospect) really takes a step forward on our radar this year. I don't mean a guy like DL Hall. I'm thinking a middle of the road type of arm who really has it click. In a perfect world, someone will be our Dallas Keuchel. We'll see.

[oriole]

28 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

I like Nunez but he is a 1B if anything. Cut Davis, keep Nunez. Unlikely to happen but...you gotta go defense first for a rebuilding club.

 

 

In a perfect world that’s exactly what happens. 

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I just wonder what the probabilities of Wright, or really anyone, to really use the data to transform who they are as a pitcher. In theory, all of the stuff about spin rate and consistency can at least be informed by advanced data. Someone will take that information and really refine their approach. I'm just waiting to see who it will be. I think it's almost guaranteed that some Orioles pitcher (ML or prospect) really takes a step forward on our radar this year... I'm thinking a middle of the road type of arm who really has it click. 

I nominate Ynoa to step forward.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I just wonder what the probabilities of Wright, or really anyone, to really use the data to transform who they are as a pitcher. In theory, all of the stuff about spin rate and consistency can at least be informed by advanced data. Someone will take that information and really refine their approach. 

Not saying it will be Wright, and I have no reason to believe it will be.

I'm just waiting to see who it will be. I think it's almost guaranteed that some Orioles pitcher (ML or prospect) really takes a step forward on our radar this year. I don't mean a guy like DL Hall. I'm thinking a middle of the road type of arm who really has it click. In a perfect world, someone will be our Dallas Keuchel. We'll see.

If the new Orioles front office and coaches can turn Wright into a good pitcher, I’m going to ask them to walk on water next.  

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 hours ago, oriole said:

In a perfect world that’s exactly what happens. 

In a perfect world, all the pitchers have a 0.00 ERA, the fielders all have a 1.000 fielding percentage, and each player hits over .400 with 35 home runs, 190 rbis, 250 hits, and 0 strike outs.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

In a perfect world, all the pitchers have a 0.00 ERA, the fielders all have a 1.000 fielding percentage, and each player hits over .400 with 35 home runs, 190 rbis, 250 hits, and 0 strike outs.

I want a HR rate greater than 14%.

[oriole]

4 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

In a perfect world, all the pitchers have a 0.00 ERA, the fielders all have a 1.000 fielding percentage, and each player hits over .400 with 35 home runs, 190 rbis, 250 hits, and 0 strike outs.

Mathmathically impossible. Does not compute. 

[Luke-OH]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

 Tony are you saying that the success we have seen from Wright  is a mirage?

If so, that will be a big disappointment. I have been clamoring for his release for almost as long as he’s been pitching, but I thought there was a reason to be encouraged this spring.

Is he doing anything differently or just getting good results in a few outings?

Not trying to be a jerk, I’m seriously curious as to the answer.

 I only saw the first outing and I didn’t see anything different in pitch type, command, or pitch quality. But I didn’t see his other outings so I’m open to the possibility of improvement.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Is he doing anything differently or just getting good results in a few outings?

Not trying to be a jerk, I’m seriously curious as to the answer.

 I only saw the first outing and I didn’t see anything different in pitch type, command, or pitch quality. But I didn’t see his other outings so I’m open to the possibility of improvement.

If that is to me, I have no idea how to answer your question, all I know is that he seemed to be getting better results. I’m not married to the guy, and I am happy to let him go if he’s the same old guy, but I thought he was actually doing better.

Rogers might be more appealing at this time.

[Luke-OH]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I wasn't a fan of his stuff when I saw him last year in the majors. I then checked the analytics and sure enough, his stuff is below average across the board. Add in below average command, and he's a dime a dozen right-handed AAAA reliever for me. Hitters barreled him twice as much as the average major leaguers and he gave up a significant a 91.6 MPH exit velocity (87.4 MLB avg). His slider was his best pitch and I saw him break some good ones, but it's inconsistent and has below average spin rate. He had little command of his changeup.

BTW, he averaged 94.1 MPH on his fastball which is slightly over major league average on 93.5 for righthanders. His spin rate is unremarkable and he had below average command of the pitch. 

So is he a guy I'd be happy to stash at AAA and hope he can help at some point possibly? Sure I'd be ok with that., but if I needed a roster spot I'd give his up without a concern.

I like Givens, Castro, Kline, Ynoa, Yacabonis, Araujo and even Carroll more than him and that's just the guys still in camp. I haven't seen enough of the NR right-handed relievers to have an opinion on them. Heck, I like Lucas Long in a relief role better than Phillips and he didn't even make our top 30.

This is good data and all of this is completely true of his 11 innings of MLB time in 2018. The data shows, he didn't get unlucky, he got lit up.

He's not a top relief prospect by any means, but I think he's more useful than his brief debut showed.  I watched almost half of his AAA appearances and have seen reliable gun readings on him . He averaged more like 95-96 earlier in the season when he was successful and had average FB command. The pitch elicited tons of weak contact, with the majority of batted balls going to opposite field (an indicator I use for hitters being uncomfortable). He does lack a secondary that will allow him to be much more than a middle reliever, but it's a useful pen arm IMO. 

I like him better than Yacabonis and Araujo, although I admit Yacabonis has a live arm and may be able to unlock more of his talent now that he's not going to be coached to pitch to contact anymore.  Ynoa is an interesting case, I want to see where his velocity ends up coming back from injury before I give a take on what he might be going forward. 

I loved 2017 Lucas Long, but 2018 Lucas Long's stuff and command both regressed significantly (actually started late 2017) and the 2018 version looked like an org guy. Maybe there was some health issue. 

I'm actually a little more concerned with Carroll's 2018 MLB debut because he's dealt with command and stuff inconsistencies throughout the 2018 season, despite the stellar minor league stats. Phillips was steady and the only struggles were in his MLB debut. Carroll has more upside though because he does have a plus slider with some frequency. 

I'm not entirely discounting what happened at the major league level, but the 2018 Orioles, especially late in the season, was a terrible situation and I'm willing to put more weight on larger samples of minor league looks on guys like Ortiz, Carroll, and Phillips. 

These are good discussions. 

[sportsfan8703]

Wright’s value this year is if he can be a Swiss Army knife and give us 100 IP with an ERA that is somewhat reasonable. 

[interloper]

15 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

I nominate Ynoa to step forward.

I like him more than most.

[foxfield]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Wright’s value this year is if he can be a Swiss Army knife and give us 100 IP with an ERA that is somewhat reasonable. 

Well, if he was capable of that, I think we would have seen it before by now.  I think your swiss army knife hope is more like swiss cheese.  But I hope you wright.  

[TommyPickles]

I definitely think a Rickard/Mullins platoon in CF makes a ton of sense.

In 2018:

Mullins OPS against RHP: .751

Mullins OPS against LHP: .452

Rickard OPS against RHP: .668

Rickard OPS against LHP: .789

 

This board is always tough on Joey, but he has value to this (rebuilding) team and still seems to be improving. He did have a higher WAR than Jones, Mancini, or Mullins last year. 

 

[bobmc]

18 hours ago, interloper said:

Fair enough! 

#owned

Chris Archer likes Evan!