Would you offer Austin Hays the Scott Kingery deal?

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Didn't see his post, but even if I had arbitration numbers can be deduced pretty accurately.  It is a lot harder to guess how much money is enough for someone you've never met.

We don't know the young man or what he might be looking for in a deal.

I am honored.  You read my posts but not SGs.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

By the time Adley is age 30 or so odds are he will need to move to 1B.   Though his bat may play there his value drops because there will be other players that can play 1B.   I would not offer Adley a long term contract.  I would make that decision in 2026.

If he needs to move to first base at 30 the odds of him being worth a long-term contract into his 30s goes down dramatically.  For a first baseman to be worth $20M+ a year he needs to OPS .900+, realistically closer to 1.000.  The bar is probably higher for a converted catcher who probably won't be winning any gold gloves.  

If you're projecting he won't be a catcher in his 30s, then the O's should let him go after his initial six years of control unless he hits like Piazza.  Even if he stays behind the plate, there are only four catchers worth 20+ wins after age 32.  Bench was the greatest catcher ever and was worth 15 wins in his 30s, and his last three years he was a mediocre 1B/3B.

[Aglets]

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

I have seen enough of Adley to know he is different than Wieters.

[tntoriole]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I have seen enough of Adley to know he is different than Wieters.

There was no more frenzied and hyped anticipation than when Matt Wieters was a prospect. 
Doesn’t matter what Adley looks like, it only matters what he does and thus far he has produced less in the minors than Matt did. 
Is he going to be a perennial AllStar with a HOF career?  Pretty unlikely given the odds against. I will be very, very happy with a Joe Mauer or Buster Posey career production but it is not a given.   Nothing in life is. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

There was no more frenzied and hyped anticipation than when Matt Wieters was a prospect. 
Doesn’t matter what Adley looks like, it only matters what he does and thus far he has produced less in the minors than Matt did. 
Is he going to be a perennial AllStar with a HOF career?  Pretty unlikely given the odds against. I will be very, very happy with a Joe Mauer or Buster Posey career production but it is not a given.   Nothing in life is. 

And people were wrong about Wieters from day 1.  They overlooked too many things that held him back, things that were obvious the first time I saw him play.

Rutschman is a far better athlete and has a better swing.  
 

[Aristotelian]

51 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

That other guy put up like 16 WAR for us. That would not be a bad outcome although it is true, that extra year did not work out for us. 

[Aglets]

8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

That other guy put up like 16 WAR for us. That would not be a bad outcome although it is true, that extra year did not work out for us. 

Not terrible to be sure.  Perhaps not worth $30M / year though?

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

That other guy put up like 16 WAR for us. That would not be a bad outcome although it is true, that extra year did not work out for us. 

We made the playoffs in that extra year and probably wouldn’t have without him.  So I’d say that worked out fine.   Was disappointed not to get the comp pick though.  

[tntoriole]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

And people were wrong about Wieters from day 1.  They overlooked too many things that held him back, things that were obvious the first time I saw him play.

Rutschman is a far better athlete and has a better swing.  
 

Did you say that back then?  That he wasn’t the be all and end all?  I didn’t .. I was in for the HOF career hook, line and sinker. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, tntoriole said:

Did you say that back then?  That he wasn’t the be all and end all?  I didn’t .. I was in for the HOF career hook, line and sinker. 

Yes I did…as soon as I saw him in the majors (I didn’t see him in the minors).

[Aglets]

27 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I did…as soon as I saw him in the majors (I didn’t see him in the minors).

How many of Adley's games have you seen?

[Ruzious]

6 hours ago, Aglets said:

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

The biggest problem I see there is we're intentionally trying to lower the number of quality MLB years he'll have as a catcher.    

[interloper]

7 hours ago, Aglets said:

Some food for thought while we are pondering giving Adley a blank check before he even sees AAA.

Rutschman (age 23 at AA):   .288/.440/.567/1.008     8 hr, 26 bb, and 26 K's through 134 PA

Some other first round catcher we drafted in 2007 (age 22 at AA):   .365/.460/.625/1.085          12 hr, 38 bb, 29 K's through 250 PA

134 PA vs 250 PA is quite a lot, no? Do I think Adley will reach 12 homers in the next 116 PA? Yes I do. He may hit 15 by then. The average, probably not. 

I'm as skeptical of Adley's eventual ML bat as anyone, but that's too big of a discrepancy in PA to make the point you're making right now.

[DrungoHazewood]

45 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Did you say that back then?  That he wasn’t the be all and end all?  I didn’t .. I was in for the HOF career hook, line and sinker. 

Even today it's hard to see a .365/.460/.625 line in AA at 22 and not think it's awesome.  It is.  Especially in 2021 when hitting .365 seems like something Ty Cobb used to do eons ago.

But it's a good lesson in not projecting an epic career based on a single minor league season.  Especially in a catcher who might spend half his career recovering from a never-ending series of large and small injuries.

Rutschman should be better, but we'll see...