Alex Wells 2019

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, jtschrei said:

Wells has been unreal -- only 2 HRs allowed and that WHIP. Last year in A-ball, he gave up 1 HR per every 7 innings. This year in AA, 1 HR per every 43 innings. I wonder what's changed? Just sample size and chance? Seems unlikely. 

Partly, it’s getting out of Harry Grove Stadium, which is very homer-friendly.   But there must be more to the story than that.   (Note: only 10 of the 19 homers hit off Wells last year came at Harry Grove.)

Wells’ ground ball rate is up (.91 GO/AO compared to .67 last year), but still, that HR rate is extremely low.   

[LookinUp]

On 7/16/2019 at 9:06 AM, Tony-OH said:

I haven't done a full evaluation, but if I had a gun to my head right now, I'd go Lowther, Wells, Akin, Zimmerman.

Slightly different for me. I'd go Lowther, Akin, Wells, Zimmerman. I just really fear Wells' ML profile even with his awesome production this year. He will have to be pinpoint. 

I have no idea how you rank them against guys like Harvey though. It's production against stuff. At this point, I think I'd rather have Harvey than any of them even with his wild swings in effectiveness. I don't know. Maybe not Lowther. 

[MurphDogg]

Pat

1:28

Thoughts on Alex Wells? I know I'm scouting the stat line, but he just keeps on keeping on. 1.95 ERA, 2.63 FIP at AA. Can a guy with that limited velocity be a GUY?

 

Keith Law

1:28

I think there's a chance he's a back-end starter - a very small chance, but I wouldn't say zero.

From Keith Law's chat today. 

 

[HelenaEngineer]

6 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

Pat

1:28

Thoughts on Alex Wells? I know I'm scouting the stat line, but he just keeps on keeping on. 1.95 ERA, 2.63 FIP at AA. Can a guy with that limited velocity be a GUY?

 

Keith Law

1:28

I think there's a chance he's a back-end starter - a very small chance, but I wouldn't say zero.

From Keith Law's chat today. 

 

What would Keith Law have thought of a AA Greg Maddux and his 92 mph heater?

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, HelenaEngineer said:

What would Keith Law have thought of a AA Greg Maddux and his 92 mph heater?

 

Probably that a 92 (actually 93) MPH FB was pretty good back in 1986.

 

What is it with people and their desire to revisionist history Maddux into someone that never had decent velocity?

[HelenaEngineer]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Probably that a 92 (actually 93) MPH FB was pretty good back in 1986.

 

What is it with people and their desire to revisionist history Maddux into someone that never had decent velocity?

Most of his career in Atlanta he was in the low 90s dipping to high 80s late in his Atlanta tenure. His K/9 innings in the minors were in the 6-7 range and mostly stayed right there in the majors. I get there are a ton of people without overpowering fastballs who aren't able to put people away and only a very few Greg Maddux types. I am not saying Wells is and have never even seen him pitch, but his stats look pretty Maddux like. Maddux was effective with the fastball because he changed speeds, located brilliantly and knew when and where to use it, not because he blew it by batters who were looking for it. I live in Atlanta and watched him pitch a ton of times. It seems that Wells has been able to do that for the most part at Aberdeen, Delmarva and Bowie. I'm not sure what changed between Frederick and Bowie. It would be nice to see it continue, but I am certainly not going to assume it won't because Keith Law said so. 2 HRs allowed in 87 innings doesn't happen by random luck.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, HelenaEngineer said:

Most of his career in Atlanta he was in the low 90s dipping to high 80s late in his Atlanta tenure. His K/9 innings in the minors were in the 6-7 range and mostly stayed right there in the majors. I get there are a ton of people without overpowering fastballs who aren't able to put people away and only a very few Greg Maddux types. I am not saying Wells is and have never even seen him pitch, but his stats look pretty Maddux like. Maddux was effective with the fastball because he changed speeds, located brilliantly and knew when and where to use it, not because he blew it by batters who were looking for it. I live in Atlanta and watched him pitch a ton of times. It seems that Wells has been able to do that for the most part at Aberdeen, Delmarva and Bowie. I'm not sure what changed between Frederick and Bowie. It would be nice to see it continue, but I am certainly not going to assume it won't because Keith Law said so. 2 HRs allowed in 87 innings doesn't happen by random luck.

You said AA.  Why are you mentioning his velocity at 37?  By the time he was 37 he had his own personal strike zone six inches wider than everyone else.

[Luke-OH]

Regarding Maddux, averaging 91-92 with double plus movement is a completely different animal than 88 with below average life regardless of the league-wide environment. Add in the about 3+ mph greater league average velocity now vs in Maddux’s day and the already huge gulf of fastball quality is even wider.

[LookinUp]

Yeah. People forget the double plus movement, location and complimentary double plus change up. Velocity wasn’t Maddux’s Game.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Yeah. People forget the double plus movement, location and complimentary double plus change up. Velocity wasn’t Maddux’s Game.

But he wasn't Jamie Moyer out there either.  Particularly in his early years, he wasn't what you would call a soft tosser.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But he wasn't Jamie Moyer out there either.  Particularly in his early years, he wasn't what you would call a soft tosser.

Definitely not, but velocity was not his calling card even when it was good.

[Punchandjudy]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Regarding Maddux, averaging 91-92 with double plus movement is a completely different animal than 88 with below average life regardless of the league-wide environment. Add in the about 3+ mph greater league average velocity now vs in Maddux’s day and the already huge gulf of fastball quality is even wider.

Based in no small part to the different ways the radar now measures mph versus how it did 10-15 years ago.  The gun is 3 mph faster today even though today’s gun is supposedly a more accurate measurement.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, HelenaEngineer said:

What would Keith Law have thought of a AA Greg Maddux and his 92 mph heater?

 

Frankly, for Law to say Wells has a chance to be a back end starter is about the most complimentary thing he’s said about any Orioles prospect all year.   

[MDtransplant757]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Frankly, for Law to say Wells has a chance to be a back end starter is about the most complimentary thing he’s said about any Orioles prospect all year.   

Means he'll be a TOR starter and Cy Young candidate, right?

[TINSTAAPP]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

Frankly, for Law to say Wells has a chance to be a back end starter is about the most complimentary thing he’s said about any Orioles prospect all year.   

The only O's prospect he's been fairly complimentary about is DL Hall. Even with Rutschman, Law's said things like "he's not a generational prospect" and "definitely not on the level of Posey as a catching prospect."