The Baserunning Thread, 2019

[eddie83]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Dwight Smith just killed a rally by misreading a Mancini line drive that got over the glove of the 2B.   He didn’t head for 2B quickly enough and was thrown out by the RF by a couple of feet.   

The OF positioning and great throw played a role as well. Smith is looking at it from a different angle then we are. 

[OFFNY]

On 4/23/2019 at 2:41 PM, OFFNY said:

o

Has Jonathan Villar's baserunning improved at all in this still very young season ???

If I recall correctly, he had gotten some grief over a couple of questionable baserunning decisions/blunders, but he is also 6-for-7 in stolen base attempts (I'm assuming that the one time that he was officially caught stealing was one of the blunders/questionable decisions that he was criticized for.)

Last year he stole 35 bases while being caught only 5 times, good for an 87.5% success rate.

o

 

 

On 5/1/2019 at 8:59 PM, OFFNY said:

o

(MAY 1st)

 

Villar is now 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts in this still very young 2019 season.

o

o

 

(JUNE 6th)

 

Villar is now 12-for-15  in stolen base attempts so far this season.

 

o

[Il BuonO]

On 4/23/2019 at 1:00 PM, webbrick2010 said:

What do the analytics guys say about a safety squeeze with the bases loaded, one out, and a guy who is not known as an accomplished bunter?

Not getting a feel that Hyde is really tied into the situational probability guys.

The squeeze was always thought of as a good one out play when I played. With no outs you want to give a guy a chance at extending the inning or at least lifting the ball for a sac fly. 

But if the guy at the plate in the right situation for a squeeze can’t bunt, there’s no reason to try it.

[OFFNY]

o

 

(vs. RED SOX, 6/16)

 

With the Orioles trailing by one run late in a low-scoring game, Jonathan Villar led off the inning with a Walk, stole both 2nd AND 3rd base, and scored the tying run on a wild pitch.

 

o

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(vs. RED SOX, 6/16)

 

With the Orioles trailing by one run late in a low-scoring game, Jonathan Villar led off the inning with a Walk, stole both 2nd AND 3rd base, and scored the tying run on a wild patch.

 

o

I can be very critical of Villar’s baserunning at times, but that sequence was brilliant.  

[Frobby]

Last night in Oakland, Sisco was thrown out on a crazy double steal attempt with 2 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd in the first inning.     Apparently it wasn’t called from the dugout; how two players coordinate on a double steal attempt without it getting called from the dugout is beyond me.

In any event, the run expectancy with runners on first and second and two outs is .429; with runners on 2nd and 3rd and two outs it’s .580.    In order for that play to make sense you have to expect a success rate of 74% or better.    Not a good decision.    

[Il BuonO]

On 6/16/2019 at 6:41 PM, Frobby said:

I can be very critical of Villar’s baserunning at times, but that sequence was brilliant.  

It wasn’t just brilliant, it was unheard of. And I agree with you about Villar. It seems too often he’s making boneheaded plays on the bases.

The steal of 3B was exactly the play my dad taught us as 10 year olds. Specifically, take your lead from 2B and if the catcher makes a lazy, bloop of a throw back to the pitcher be ready to go.

To see it done at the ML level was surprising. You just don’t see catchers make throws like Vasquez did, which Villar must have noted. Or, maybe the coaching staff put the players on alert because they noticed a tendency with Vasquez.

Either way, Villar still had to anticipate and then go. Really a great baseball play, the delayed steal. Well done.

[Moose Milligan]

Was there for the Sox game, sitting on the 3rd base side in section 49.  Had a bird's eye view of that play where he stole third.  Amazing.  

A true "Rickey Run".  Rare to see these days.

[OFFNY]

34 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I was there for the Sox game, sitting on the 3rd base side, in section 49. I had a bird's-eye view of the play in which he stole 3rd. Amazing.  

It was a true "Rickey Run" ........ that's rare to see these days.

 

o

 

You bastard.

 

o

[OFFNY]

o

 

(vs. TIGERS, 9/14)

 

With the Orioles leading by one run in the top of the 9th inning, they were trying to ad an insurance run.

Austin Hays hit a Triple with only one out ........ but was tagged out by the Tigers' 3rd baseman when he overslid the bag.

 

That potential insurance run could have proved to be helpful, as the Tigers tied the game with a solo home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning.

 

o

[eddie83]

2 hours ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

(vs. TIGERS, 9/14)

 

With the Orioles leading by one run in the top of the 9th inning, they were trying to ad an insurance run.

Austin Hays hit a Triple with only one out ........ but was tagged out by the Tigers' 3rd baseman when he overslid the bag.

 

That potential insurance run could have proved to be helpful, as the Tigers tied the game with a solo home run with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning.

 

o

To me it isn’t fair to the runner when the fielder without the ball is directly in the baseline. Hays is running full speed rounding 2nd and he then has to go around the 3rd basemen running full speed. 

This was not a situation where with a direct path to the base he overslid the bag. I think obstruction could have been called.

I would actually like to see a breakdown of this play by MLB Network. If the throw is directly online it is late and he is safe easily unless of course he overslids. Problem is Hays never had that chance. A tag play was not possible, the throw was way late. Not like it was a bang-bang play.  

[SteveA]

How are there only 25 posts in this thread?

I'd be shocked if the Orioles haven't made at least 100 bad baserunning plays this year.

[Il BuonO]

12 hours ago, eddie83 said:

To me it isn’t fair to the runner when the fielder without the ball is directly in the baseline. Hays is running full speed rounding 2nd and he then has to go around the 3rd basemen running full speed. 

This was not a situation where with a direct path to the base he overslid the bag. I think obstruction could have been called.

There’s not a specific rule that applied uniformly to all bases per sliding or a fielder blocking the runner’ path.

From the rule at home plate....

The catcher is not permitted to block the runner's path to the plate unless he is in possession of the ball, though blocking the path of the runner in a legitimate attempt to receive a throw is not considered a violation. The runner can be ruled safe if the umpire determines the catcher violated this rule.

From the slide rule at 2B....

When sliding into a base in an attempt to break up a double

play....

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/slide-rule

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/collisions-at-home-plate

 

[SilverRocket]

Villar is #1 in baseball in Fangraph's baserunning metric.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=18,d

The outs can look bad but how many extra bases has he taken? 99 runs scored in an unexciting offense.

[eddie83]

7 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

There’s not a specific rule that applied uniformly to all bases per sliding or a fielder blocking the runner’ path.

From the rule at home plate....

The catcher is not permitted to block the runner's path to the plate unless he is in possession of the ball, though blocking the path of the runner in a legitimate attempt to receive a throw is not considered a violation. The runner can be ruled safe if the umpire determines the catcher violated this rule.

From the slide rule at 2B....

When sliding into a base in an attempt to break up a double

play....

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/slide-rule

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/collisions-at-home-plate

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/obstruction

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/rules/fielder-right-of-way

To me he obstructed Hays because he to me wasn’t making a play on the ball. He was in line with the throw but he was waiting on it.