Mancini Trade Package

[Greg Pappas]

An ESPN trade idea:

Quote

Baltimore Orioles trade OF Trey Mancini to the Oakland Athletics for LHP A.J. Puk and IF Franklin Barreto

Do I want to see the Orioles trade Mancini? No, but the only blockbuster deal involving the Orioles must include Mancini -- especially since they just waived Jonathan Villar. Oakland's outfield production was so-so in 2019, ranking 16th in the majors in OPS and wOBA, and that was with a surprising year from Ramon Laureano. Mancini can play either corner and give the A's a DH option if Khris Davis flatlines again. Mancini's projected salary is $5 million, so he fits in the A's tiny budget. They give up a promising starter in Puk, but the emergence of Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt means the A's suddenly have rotation depth to deal from.

 

[interloper]

I think we're a year early on Mancini trade stuff.

[Camden_yardbird]

29 minutes ago, interloper said:

I think we're a year early on Mancini trade stuff.

Not to a budget conscious contender like the A's.  Another year and he starts getting more expensive and he is no longer an option for more budget minded teams.  At which point the large market teams thumb their nose at you and say we know you cant affird him and we can find those RCs somewhere else.  So I disagree.  We are right on target for talking Mancini trade.

The best value outside a trade deadline desparation rade is within the mid and small market teams who are sloshing back and forth between competing and tanking.

[interloper]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Not to a budget conscious contender like the A's.  Another year and he starts getting more expensive and he is no longer an option for more budget minded teams.  At which point the large market teams thumb their nose at you and say we know you cant affird him and we can find those RCs somewhere else.  So I disagree.  We are right on target for talking Mancini trade.

The best value outside a trade deadline desparation rade is within the mid and small market teams who are sloshing back and forth between competing and tanking.

Yeah I do agree now is the best time to trade him. I just think the Os are committed to him being on the team this year in order to field a team with SOMEbody fans know. That kind of thing could even be an owner mandate. There's no way to really know. But I'm just saying if I had to guess on a trade it would be when he's in a Villar situation.

[Camden_yardbird]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

Yeah I do agree now is the best time to trade him. I just think the Os are committed to him being on the team this year in order to field a team with SOMEbody fans know. That kind of thing could even be an owner mandate. There's no way to really know. But I'm just saying if I had to guess on a trade it would be when he's in a Villar situation.

He, if they trade him someone else just becomes the face of the team.  It's not like Mancini is Mussina.  If he got traded I dont see it being one of those things that people look back on and go "Can you believe they did that?"

In the current MLB baseball decisions are largely devoid of fan sentiment unless they are a top 10 league player.  Hell, here in CT I even hear Sox fans saying they should trade Mookie.

[Pheasants]

On 5/28/2019 at 5:30 PM, Philip said:

Trumbo hit 47 Homeruns, but his value only skyrocketed with us. The fact is most teams don’t want guys who only hit home runs anymore.

Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs."  You ignore half of the comment.

[Pheasants]

1 minute ago, Pheasants said:

Batting .300 is not a guy who "only hit(s) home runs."  You ignore half of the comment.

Sorry, I did not realize how old your comment was.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Greg Pappas said:

An ESPN trade idea:

 

I was just saw this too.  Dave Schoenfield's a good generalist, but this float hits me as way too good to be true, and kind of makes me wonder if the early pitch analysis results are that a lot of Puk's stuff was left on the operating table.  I can't imagine Chris Bassitt doing enough ever to make a guy like Puk expendable. 

I think I would probably even have to consider saying yes to Puk even if the Oakland ask was Mancini/Bundy/Givens, assuming Puk seems to be in the range of normal TJ recovery and not suddenly Scott McGregor.

[Philip]

2 hours ago, Pheasants said:

Sorry, I did not realize how old your comment was.

No worries. my point is that Mancini has minimal value because his offense is easy to get these days. Well, it’s not easy to get, but it is not so difficult to get that Mancini has significant trade value.  Yes his offensive result was good, and I haven’t looked to see how much of it was driven by luck, but teams are being much more careful about how they spend their money. A bad team would be happy to have Mancini, because he’s probably better than what they have. On the other hand a bad team might very well be happy going with their current first baseman rather than paying a premium for A slightly better overall player. Think Seattle. dan Vogelbach Is it fun to watch hard hitting first baseman, he doesn’t hit for very much average, and his defense is not outstanding. But he’s league minimum at the moment. Mancini would be a better first baseman for them, but they are happy to ride with what they have. At the other end of the scale, the outstanding teams already have a player who is better than Mancini. Whether that player costs more or not is irrelevant because they already have him. Therefore for one reason or another, it is unlikely that anybody is interested in paying anything significant to get Mancini because he is limited.

[Just Regular]

The suddenness of the Bundy deal does make it feel more likely this domino could fall too.  It does cross a line of costing the 2022 team a potentially decent player though.

Remembering Frobby's point from the other day about a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR hitter and who gets paid, I guess in thinking about Mancini one thing I'm unsure of is....does he have more or less trade value than Dylan Bundy?

Reports are there's considerable overlap in the Castellanos/Ozuna free agent pursuits, I'd imagine whoever wants but doesn't get those two would be a starting point.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Remembering Frobby's point from the other day about a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR hitter and who gets paid, I guess in thinking about Mancini one thing I'm unsure of is....does he have more or less trade value than Dylan Bundy?

More, in my opinion.     The extra year of control is huge and the injury risk is less.

[atomic]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

More, in my opinion.     The extra year of control is huge and the injury risk is less.

Plus Mancini was playing out of position if he played DH every game his WAR would be higher. 

[wildbillhiccup]

On 12/4/2019 at 12:27 PM, OrioleDog said:

I was just saw this too.  Dave Schoenfield's a good generalist, but this float hits me as way too good to be true, and kind of makes me wonder if the early pitch analysis results are that a lot of Puk's stuff was left on the operating table.  I can't imagine Chris Bassitt doing enough ever to make a guy like Puk expendable. 

I think I would probably even have to consider saying yes to Puk even if the Oakland ask was Mancini/Bundy/Givens, assuming Puk seems to be in the range of normal TJ recovery and not suddenly Scott McGregor.

I think Bassit as a 5th starter is fine. I also think Luzardo (and how much they like him) might be what makes Puk expendable more so than Bassit. Also, they might be interested in your suggestion of pairing Mancini with Givens since they just gave up on Treinen.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

The suddenness of the Bundy deal does make it feel more likely this domino could fall too.  It does cross a line of costing the 2022 team a potentially decent player though.

Remembering Frobby's point from the other day about a 2.5 WAR pitcher and a 2.5 WAR hitter and who gets paid, I guess in thinking about Mancini one thing I'm unsure of is....does he have more or less trade value than Dylan Bundy?

Reports are there's considerable overlap in the Castellanos/Ozuna free agent pursuits, I'd imagine whoever wants but doesn't get those two would be a starting point.

I think Mancini has more trade value than Bundy. His solid on base percentage and batting average is what sets him apart from the CJ Crons of the world. And I think your Castellanos comparison is spot on. Bundy might be a slightly better hitter, but Castellanos is a better defender. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Plus Mancini was playing out of position if he played DH every game his WAR would be higher. 

For what it’s worth, a full time DH starts off with about a -14 Rpos component.   1B is about -9, RF -6, LF -6.    What this effectively means is that a corner OF with a -8 Rdrs will get as much “credit” towards his rWAR total as a DH, as will a -5 Rdrs 1B.   In Mancini’s case, since he played DH, 1B and both corner OF spots, his combined Rpos is -8, and his combined Rdrs (same thing as Rfield) was -9 (-8 in the OF and -1 at 1B) for a total of -17, compared to -14 if he’d been full time DH.    That equates to .3 rWAR.   So, if he’d been a full time DH, his rWAR would have been 3.6 rather than 3.3.