Is the 2019 Season a Blatant Tank Job?

[Three Run Homer]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I think the Orioles do have a legitimate shot at the worst run differential for a team since 1900.  There are a number of teams like the 1915-16 A's who were outscored by 330 runs or so.  But the O's are on pace for about 375. Even the '62 Mets and '03 Tigers were only in that 330 range.  Pythag can break down at the margins, so that doesn't necessarily mean the O's will end up in the low-40s in wins, it can be thrown off by a large number of huge blowouts.

The all-time record appears to be the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenies, who went 28-108 and were outscored by 638 runs in a 136 game schedule.  That was the year of the Players League, and lots of things were thrown into chaos. In an era where rosters were often 15-18 players Pittsburgh had 20 different pitchers make starts.

I did some digging around BB-Ref this morning, looking at teams with the worst records since 1900.  The worst run differential I could find was the 1932 Red Sox, who were outscored by 349 runs.  Next were the 2003 Tigers, with -337, followed by the original Mets with -331.  So the O's definitely have a shot at winding up with the worst run differential since 1900, and seem almost certain to eclipse last year's mark of --270.   

At least it's something else to keep track of this summer, along with the HR allowed record.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

32 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

I did some digging around BB-Ref this morning, looking at teams with the worst records since 1900.  The worst run differential I could find was the 1932 Red Sox, who were outscored by 349 runs.  Next were the 2003 Tigers, with -337, followed by the original Mets with -331.  So the O's definitely have a shot at winding up with the worst run differential since 1900, and seem almost certain to eclipse last year's mark of --270.   

At least it's something else to keep track of this summer, along with the HR allowed record.  

So all time home runs allowed and worst full season run differential in modern baseball history. And people want to complain this team isn't interesting to watch.  

[Mondo Trasho]

It's only a tank job in the sense that they've chosen to do things the wrong way for many years (with a few good moves here and there) and as a result things have finally bottomed out. I don't think they're intentionally trying to lose, it's just this is the path they must go on to get to where they need to be. It could have been a lot less painful if done 10, 15 or 20 years ago, but we're here now.

[atomic]

4 hours ago, FanSince88 said:

Yeah this makes sense.  It should be similar to what the NFL does.  

MLB has teams playing roughly 46-47% of their regular season games against division opponents.  In the NFL it's only 37.5%.  MLB needs to reduce number of divisional games and then give bad teams an easier schedule in the non-division games and good teams a harder schedule.  

Ownership wants more games against the division as that is what pays the bills.  

[Going Underground]

34 minutes ago, atomic said:

Ownership wants more games against the division as that is what pays the bills.  

i know the Orioles want Yankees and Red Sox games. Not so  sure about Rays and Jays. Orioles attendance is 603,318 after 36 games. 13 games against the Yankees and Red Sox  drew 298,700 . 23 games against all other teams drew 304,618. I took out Opening Day against the Yankees because of usual sell out or near sell out. So in 12 games against the Yankees and Red Sox averaging 21,209. 23 games against everyone else averaging 13,244. 

[atomic]

Just now, Going Underground said:

i know the Orioles want Yankees and Red Sox games. Not so  sure about Rays and Jays. Orioles attendance is 603,318 after 36 games. 13 games against the Yankees and Red Sox  drew 298,700 . 23 games against all other teams drew 304,618. I took out Opening Day against the Yankees because of usual sell out or near sell out. So in 12 games against the Yankees and Red Sox averaging 21,209. 23 games against everyone else averaging 13,244. 

Don’t forget that games against Yankees and Red Sox ticket prices are jacked up.

[Going Underground]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

Don’t forget that games against Yankees and Red Sox ticket prices are jacked up.

And almost every giveaway is jacked up. 

[Going Underground]

At least the Women's Soccer team won't tank. 

So by easing up and finishing second in its Women’s World Cup group — which would require losing, an outcome foreign to Jill Ellis’s squad — the U.S. national soccer team would dodge a potentially perilous quarterfinal with France next week.

Consider: Passage to the round of 16 already has been secured, and regardless of whether they finish first or second, the Americans will play a second-place side Monday. No team wants to face the hosts and their flag-waving, “La Marseillaise”-singing supporters in a rocking stadium, either.

Oh, who are we kidding?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/06/19/us-soccer-trashes-any-talk-tanking-vs-sweden/?utm_term=.62ea470f4168

[Ruzious]

So, our magic number is probably a ways away. 

I remember talking to some very casual O's fans at the beginning of the season who thought the team was good, and... it's amazing, but some people really didn't see this coming.  

[eddie83]

56 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

i know the Orioles want Yankees and Red Sox games. Not so  sure about Rays and Jays. Orioles attendance is 603,318 after 36 games. 13 games against the Yankees and Red Sox  drew 298,700 . 23 games against all other teams drew 304,618. I took out Opening Day against the Yankees because of usual sell out or near sell out. So in 12 games against the Yankees and Red Sox averaging 21,209. 23 games against everyone else averaging 13,244. 

I think it’s fair to say the Orioles drive attendance when they are competitive. When they aren’t like now, playing NY and Boston is a big benefit.  

[hoosiers]

It's like some folks think our front office, or any other one for that matter, can conjure up major league quality players out of thin air.  And some folks forgot their "all in now, we will rebuild when it's time to rebuild" posts from just two and three years ago.  This is not a tank job.  It is stage one of a rebuild and it's ugly waiting for bad contracts to expire, trying multiple reclamation projects from other organizations and waiting for some portion of our minor leaguers to become major league quality players.  

The core of our next competitive team is going to come through the draft and international signings and not from guys on the roster now.  The best way forward is to invest in the scouting and development staff and related analytics  - as our front office is doing.  Spending incremental $ on improving the major league team does little to bring forward our future competitiveness.

[LookinUp]

On 6/19/2019 at 1:16 PM, Bubble Buddy said:

Seattle might catch us. They started 13-2. And they actually made some moves to try to "rebuild in a different way". 

I thought the same, but we're 10 games ahead of them. Do you know how bad they'd have to be for the Orioles to win 10 more games than them over 1/2 a season? 

On 6/19/2019 at 3:50 PM, Moose Milligan said:

Trea, O5F, atomic...we need one more for the Mount Rushmore.

This could be fun. Remember the kid from WVU who was faking as an insider and came back under an alias after Tony booted him? 

On 6/20/2019 at 7:37 AM, atomic said:

Is anyone worried about the Orioles not signing any of their top draft picks yet?  The Diamondbacks had 5 guys in the top 60 and all of them have already been signed.

No. Not at all. We're on the west coast. I'd expect signings during our next home stand.

[weams]

23 hours ago, atomic said:

Ownership wants more games against the division as that is what pays the bills.  

What?

[weams]

22 hours ago, hoosiers said:

It's like some folks think our front office, or any other one for that matter, can conjure up major league quality players out of thin air.  And some folks forgot their "all in now, we will rebuild when it's time to rebuild" posts from just two and three years ago.  This is not a tank job.  It is stage one of a rebuild and it's ugly waiting for bad contracts to expire, trying multiple reclamation projects from other organizations and waiting for some portion of our minor leaguers to become major league quality players.  

The core of our next competitive team is going to come through the draft and international signings and not from guys on the roster now.  The best way forward is to invest in the scouting and development staff and related analytics  - as our front office is doing.  Spending incremental $ on improving the major league team does little to bring forward our future competitiveness.

Excellent post.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, weams said:

What?

Someone said that bad teams should play more games against other bad teams and stop having so many games against division oppoments. Games against the Red Sox and Yankees are most profitable games for the Orioles no way onwership would want less in division games.