Is the 2019 Season a Blatant Tank Job?

[jerios55]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Outside of Atomic, who beats to some strange drum that no one can understand, can we all just agree that none of us want Straily on the team? 

Honestly, I'd rather them sink or swim with Ortiz as the mop up guy.

Straily sat for 10 days (as the one post pointed out) they probably were working with him.  He had 2 good innings and then promptly blew up again.  As much as he's been bad, there is a decent reason to have signed him and to have tried to work him into something closer to what they expected.  He's reached a low and they need to do something.  I would be shocked if he goes back out in the next 10 days (if he remains on the team).

Their only fear would be more sink in guys like Ortiz.  There really is a limit to how many are in position to help this team at this point in the season.  Not that throwing Straily out more helps any one.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll admit I haven't seen him pitch, but what the heck is wrong with the guy?  Even last year he was a serviceable MLB pitcher.  Now he's worse than a position player pitching mopup.

My theory is that at some point in the off-season his internal poles got reset and he's now left handed and trying to pitch with his non-dominant arm.

[jerios55]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we all agree no one wants Straily around.  It's like seeing an old, blind dog who's got no bladder control limp around the house and bumping into things.  It's sad.  But someone's gotta take him to the vet.

I think a fair point that was brought up earlier is that we're not going to get someone who's significantly better than him at this point in the season.  We'll get an "innings eater" who can maybe cut Straily's ERA in half...which still sucks.

Embarrassment to bad is an improvement and still getting the #1 pick seems to be the recipe.  Be the worst team, just don't make it too obvious.  I think that's what people seem to want.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I'll admit I haven't seen him pitch, but what the heck is wrong with the guy?  Even last year he was a serviceable MLB pitcher.  Now he's worse than a position player pitching mopup.

Danged if I know.   I saw him pitch on April 20, and though he did give up three solo dingers to the mighty Twins over 5+ innings, I thought he looked reasonably serviceable and could give us 150 innings of meh.   But I was sure wrong about that.  

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Sessh said:

Well said. I admit I am a little surprised as to how many people around here don't seem to understand what's going on. Fortunately, the majority of folks do seem to understand. Personally, I am enjoying this season far more than last season and far more than any of the games in the 14 year streak. At least now, this is all part of a viable plan.

To me, what's happening now should have happened about 15 years ago. I know we've been through a lot since 1998, but what's happening now is exactly what has needed to happen for a long time. We don't even have to worry about PA anymore and the sons at least seem to be different. Elias was just part of the FO for a team that did exactly what we're doing now and has been one of the best teams in baseball for years now which includes a championship. That's exactly where we want to be and that's where we're going.

Perhaps the draft order could be switched so that the team with the best record that missed the playoffs would get the 1:1 pick and go from there. That could create a system where teams try harder to finish higher in the standings which is rewarded with higher draft picks. That way, trying to compete would not be wallowing in mediocrity, but in fact you're spending money to sign players in order to get the higher pick. I am sure there are flaws in that as this is just off the top of my head.

I've often advocated a system that rewards trying and falling short over tanking.  I think most sports fans from outside North America look at our system of giving rewards to the worst as strange and backwards.  I'm good with either a draft lottery, or giving the highest pick to the team with the best record that missed the playoffs, or even doing away with the draft and instead allotting amateur signing pools based on an inverse of market size.

But until something like that happens it's incredibly naive to think teams will set fire to $10s of millions trying to win 70 instead of 50.  Few teams are as short-sighted as the 1998-2011 Orioles, especially today.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, jerios55 said:

Embarrassment to bad is an improvement and still getting the #1 pick seems to be the recipe.  Be the worst team, just don't make it too obvious.  I think that's what people seem to want.

 

Well, I'd rather have that than a 70 win team.  Or a .500 team.  I think a .500 team is the most mind numbingly frustrating type of team you can watch.  Looks great one night, terrible the next.  One day you think they're turning a corner only to let you down the next day.  

At least this team has a plan.  I don't think any team in the '98-'11 teams had a plan.  They just tried to make people aware of their existence.  

[wildbillhiccup]

17 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What would it have taken to get Keuchel to sign with a 47-win team playing half its games in Oriole Park?  A one-year deal for $20M?  2/60?  Coming here would almost guarantee a record of something like 7-16, 4.25 if things go well. Downside of giving up 27 homers and a .330 BABIP in 170 innings.  Hard to build value like that, it would be more like a placeholder, a hope that he's traded at the deadline.

If I'm Dallas Kuechel the Orioles would have been 30th on my list of preferred destinations.  Actually, maybe 35th.  Might be fun to sign for a year on a good Japanese team.

Just to be clear I'm not advocating a move like this. Signing Keuchel, even to a one year deal, would have been wasted money. I'm talking about continuing to play under performers. We have minor league system so we have alternatives and no one can be as bad as Dan Straily. 

[SteveA]

5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Please feel free to combine this thread with another if it's appropriate, but I wanted to discuss the blatant tank job the team seems to be doing this season. I realize the team is in rebuilding mode, but it really feels like they are passive aggressively not trying to win games and that's something I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around. How else would you explain someone like Dan Straily still being on the active roster? I'm not putting this on the players or the manager because I think they're both doing the best with the talent they have to work with, but I am putting it on ownership the the GM. And my fear is if they don't make some level of effort to compete they are going to completely lose what's left of the fan base. Will the fans come back when/if they start winning again? Maybe, but it's not a definite. And by competing I'm not talking about major free agent signings. I'm talking about not continuing to put the same terrible product/players on the field. Straily is the poster child and gets the majority of my angst, but it's not limited to him. If a player isn't performing cut him or demote it's really that simple. I'm fine with losing, but don't insult my intelligence by continuing to play terrible players who show no hopes of being better. Rant over and stepping down off my soap box. 

First of all, I doubt Straily will be on the roster by the time we get to Seattle.   No time to get someone cross country today.  People upset that he wasn't immediately DFA'd after last night's game and was allowed to ride on the team bus back to the hotel are just being emotional and childish and lashing out.

Secondly, fans ALWAYS want to give up on people before teams do.   GMs wait until the sample size is larger, fans draw conclusions quickly.   Sometimes the fans' quick conclusion is right (Straily, Wright).   Sometimes it isn't.   There have been numerous threads about "we should get rid of X" that look foolish months later when X turns it around.

We have gotten rid of plenty non-performers this year.   Araujo, Mullins, Wright, Hess, Scott.   It took a lot longer than fans wanted in some cases, but it did eventually happen.    It's not fantasy baseball, they are human beings, you give them every chance before you pull the plug.  Reacting to small sample sizes and making rash decisions is the mark of a BAD GM, not a good one.   And sometimes other circumstances like who is available to replace them comes into play. 

Taking a shot on Straily, getting a veteran who might eat some innings at ML minimum salary, was not a bad move.   It didn't work out.  

The fan base is already gone.   Only winning will bring it back.   The determination has been made that the best path to actual winning is to bite the bullet now.   It worked in Houston.    After going through 14 years of aimless seasons where we would have a losing season, make crappy moves to try to marginally improve the team for the next season, and lose again, I am still more than willing to try another way.  

[DrungoHazewood]

21 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

At least this team has a plan.  I don't think any team in the '98-'11 teams had a plan.  They just tried to make people aware of their existence.  

I think they had a plan.  It was to win using the tools and strategies of the 1978 Oriole Way.  Occasionally after a few swigs of Old Grandad, Syd would try some outlandish innovations from 1984.

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, theocean said:

I completely disagree with this. DD, Buck, and the previous regime brought some pretty great baseball to Baltimore. They won the most games in the AL during that stretch. Three playoff appearances. They prioritized using all of their resources to help the major league club at the expense of the future. They didn't win every trade - but they moved "prospects" for players that legitimately helped the team. Yeah, it stinks that the O's don't have Josh Hader - but they don't make the ALCS in 2014 without Bud Norris. Yeah, the Parra/Davies trade was dumb - but that isn't what broke this team.

Last year, they had a team with some legitimate talent on it. They had one of the top players in baseball in Manny Machado. I can't fault them for trying to go for it. I don't understand why anyone would think the "rebuild" should have started years earlier. They made the playoffs in 2016. In 2017, they were in it until September. 

We can fault them for not building an analytics infrastructure and bringing the franchise into the future - but it is insane to ignore the success of the previous regime because things aren't great now.

Basically, the 2019 Orioles are on pace to be worse than the 2018 Orioles - who lost 115 games. That's awful. Most rebuilding teams aren't that bad. This is a complete tank job. It certainly is a strategy - but it is unclear if it will be successful. The Astros had Springer, Altuve, and Keuchel in the system before they started their tank-rebuild. The O's don't have anything close to that. This rebuild is going to take a LONG time and I honestly wonder how the Orioles-fanbase will be after it. I know I'm not even paying attention to the box score anymore - and I've been filling that time in my life with new hobbies, new interests. Who knows if I'll even care in 2023, 2024.

Keuchel wasn't a highly rated prospect.   I think Rodriguez and DL Hall were just in the latest top 100 that someone put out, and I doubt Keuchel was.  

I don't know how Mountcastle's rating compares with where Springer and Altuve were rated.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Secondly, fans ALWAYS want to give up on people before teams do.   GMs wait until the sample size is larger, fans draw conclusions quickly.   Sometimes the fans' quick conclusion is right (Straily, Wright).   Sometimes it isn't.   There have been numerous threads about "we should get rid of X" that look foolish months later when X turns it around.

This rule is so universal there needs to be a name for it.  Fans "know" a player is good or bad weeks before that's even theoretically possible.

[Tony-OH]

44 minutes ago, jerios55 said:

Straily sat for 10 days (as the one post pointed out) they probably were working with him.  He had 2 good innings and then promptly blew up again.  As much as he's been bad, there is a decent reason to have signed him and to have tried to work him into something closer to what they expected.  He's reached a low and they need to do something.  I would be shocked if he goes back out in the next 10 days (if he remains on the team).

Their only fear would be more sink in guys like Ortiz.  There really is a limit to how many are in position to help this team at this point in the season.  Not that throwing Straily out more helps any one.

At some point they need to stick Ortiz in the bigs in the pen and see how it works. They'll need his 40-man spot by next year so they need to evaluate him now. Might as well as be in Straily's role.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

We found Straily, we can find another.

I say bring up David Lebron.   Great story, had TJ surgery and injuries and didn't finish college until he was 25 at his 3rd college, drafted last year at age 25 by Texas, traded to the Orioles, now putting up good #s at Frederick as a starter/reliever.

He's 26 in High A.   He doesn't likely have a ML future.   He's short, and skinny.

At the same time, I think there's a fighting chance he could put up numbers as good or better than Straily.

I say DFA Straily and bring him up.   For all that he has had to endure and persevere through.   He was working in his uncle's shop putting graphic artwork on boats when he got another chance at a 3rd college that let him play.   Give him half a year of major league minimum salary to set him up for life.   If he's bad, oh well, I find it hard to believe he would be as bad as Straily.  

It would be a great story, fans would root for him.   He'd get to realize a dream.   Then there's the 1 in 100 chance that he turns out to be a keeper!   And with pitchers doing well at Delmarva we'll probably need to open up a spot on the Frederick pitching staff soon for someone else deserving of a promotion.

[ScGO's]

Overall, I don't think its blatant, I just think this was the probable result with the goals Elias set forward which were to cut payroll and clear out the fodder, redistribute funds to the scouting and development departments, evaluate the AAAA/AAA leftovers, and begin acquiring and developing the prospects of the future.  Its not blatant, but winning at the MLB level wasn't advantageous to his goals of being competitive in the future.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Again, losing and not trying to win are two completely different things to me. I'm not ok with a complete tank job. Even if they have limited resources they should be trying to win and it doesn't seem like they are. And for me that really boils down to decisions to roster / play players who haven't performed. By not cycling out some of those players, like Straily, for someone new (anyone really) it crosses into "we're tanking" territory for me. And as much as Elias wants to base his rebuilding strategy on securing multiple #1 draft picks it needs to happen organically. Otherwise it goes against the spirit of the game. 

The phrase “Tank job” goes to motivation.  You seem to imply that Elias et al are intending to lose deliberately which I think is just nonsense.  I believe that they have a process that involves making no middling type upgrades that do not advance their plan of the fastest time to rebuild.  If that means 110 losses, then so be it. 

Losing more than 100 games a year looks just like this.  Saying you are for a complete rebuild and then complaining about the bad roster makeup is inconsistent.  Straily was a reasonable attempt that failed.  Elias didn’t make Cobb’s arm fall off or sign the Davis contract. 

You want them to “try” by just adding players piecemeal whose sole criteria is that they are different from current players but I see no specifics to your plan there that Elias and others have not long already considered and felt not consistent with their process.