Life choices and other whatnot

[AceKing]

9 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I'm shocked that these very smart people are repeatedly engaging him. I have him on ignore, but unfortunately he gets quoted a lot. 

Apologies.  I guess I’m still new.  I keep waiting for something positive and not cringeworthy in some of his posts, but apparently not from Negative Nancy.

 

His Fact is that Elias sucks.

[atomic]

9 minutes ago, Hallas said:

He committed to Auburn - not exactly Stanford.  The 20 year ROI from Stanford is around $800K, according to this article.  Given the very high probability of injury that completely ruins your draft status in 2-3 years, you'd have to do some serious financial gymnastics to make a plausible case that $2.3 million now (this is low-first round money, by the way) is worth less than whatever he's going to make 3 years from now + 3 years of school from a non-elite university.  If you take the ROI of Auburn it becomes even harder to justify, as the 20-year ROI there is in the 300K range.

That can't be right.  You are saying the Stanford graduate average 40k a year for their first 20 years out of college?  No way.  They must be including the cost of attending.  I graduated in the 90's and my first job out of college I got over 40k a year.  And I certainly didn't go to Standford. Made $77k 1 year out of college.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

I am not sure what a 401k amount has to do with anything. People pay for other things while working. Houses, Cars, Kid's education, vacations.  He also will pay high taxes on his bonus and I believe an agent gets a cut.  

What?  Why are you focusing on that?  The salient point is that you're arguing that he should turn down $2M today, so that he can get a scholarship worth $10s of thousands a year and a shot at being redrafted in a few years, but maybe not.  The math makes no sense.  Just the interest on his signing bonus is probably the equivalent of slot for pick #125 in four years.

[atomic]

That study subtracts the cost of attending the college plus subtracts 24 years of high school educated person's salary.  

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

He committed to Auburn - not exactly Stanford.  The 20 year ROI from Stanford is around $800K, according to this article.  Given the very high probability of injury that completely ruins your draft status in 2-3 years, you'd have to do some serious financial gymnastics to make a plausible case that $2.3 million now (this is low-first round money, by the way) is worth less than whatever he's going to make 3 years from now + 3 years of school from a non-elite university.  If you take the ROI of Auburn it becomes even harder to justify, as the 20-year ROI there is in the 300K range.

Great post. Well researched. 

[weams]

19 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Maybe we're getting sidetracked because we don't understand why anyone would turn town $2M today so they can accept $40k a year in scholarships, along with a pretty good chance the $2M is never on the table again.

Because we are all uneducated. 

[weams]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What?  Why are you focusing on that?  The salient point is that you're arguing that he should turn down $2M today, so that he can get a scholarship worth $10s of thousands a year and a shot at being redrafted in a few years, but maybe not.  The math makes no sense.  Just the interest on his signing bonus is probably the equivalent of slot for pick #125 in four years.

A kid with a real shot at being one of the very few professional athletes that make millions of dollars is never making the smart choice to go to school. Unless they are really scared that they aren't really they guy. I respect kids that go to school. With the idea that school is what they want. Not a professional career that it is really ludicrous unless you are already near that to rung anyway.  Glad Gunnar made the smart choice as well as the one that benefits the Baltimore Orioles, who I am a fan of. And I root for. Not just trash talk. 

[atomic]

14 minutes ago, weams said:

Great post. Well researched. 

It is not well researched as it subtracts the cost of attending which on a scholarship would be nothing.  The cost of attending Stanford for 4 years is $298k.  And that is tax free.  So you would say that is worth well over $400k in income.  You would also need to add the money back in of the median salary of a high school graduate that is above minor league player.  I think Stanford is a no brainer over going to play baseball  out of high school.  Plus add the cost of attending college in fun value for 4 years in your young age. I would call that priceless.  

[DrungoHazewood]

7 minutes ago, atomic said:

Scholarship is tax free.  Bonus will be taxed heavily and agent gets their cut. I guess I am an education first.  Most 18 year old''s will blow whatever money they get.  Sure some save the money but those are probably the same people that are going to college. If you spend you bonus and you are out of baseball at 23 it is going to be hard to beat the guy who went to college. These days the salaries between going to College and not are tremendous. 

I think we can all agree that if you assume that everyone is really stupid and will blow their entire signing bonus on frivolities, it's smarter to go to college. 

But if he's not dumb as a bag of rocks, and just puts $1M of his bonus in a fairly safe, conservative investment he'll have $20M or more by the time he's ready to retire.  No matter what happens with the rest of his life or his degree or his baseball career.

[TheOtherRipken]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

It is not well researched as it subtracts the cost of attending which on a scholarship would be nothing.  The cost of attending Stanford for 4 years is $298k.  And that is tax free.  So you would say that is worth well over $400k in income.  You would also need to add the money back in of the median salary of a high school graduate that is above minor league player.  I think Stanford is a no brainer over going to play baseball  out of high school.  Plus add the cost of attending college in fun value for 4 years in your young age. I would call that priceless.  

Being on a minor league team full of similar aged folks isn’t fun?

[52520Andrew]

32 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 99% of all fields nobody cares where you went to college.  The practical difference between a random degree from Auburn and a degree from UMBC is negligible.

And once you get work experience people only care that you have a degree.

I cerntainly wouldn't turn down 1+ mil after taxes to go try to play baseball as a pro. If he flames out before Frederick then he wouldn't have survived the SEC anyways. And then he can go back to school a little older and will probably have a better idea of what he wants to do for a degree. The odds of him finishing a degree in 3 years while playing baseball are pretty slim too so he would have to go back to school anyways at some point.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

II think Stanford is a no brainer over going to play baseball  out of high school. 

If you take the $800k 20-year ROI for Stanford and add in the $300k cost of going to Stanford that's a grand total of $1.2M.  Henderson is going to get a check for something like $2M tomorrow.  He'll pay $650k or so in taxes, bank $1.35M.  If he puts $1M of that in a safe investment he's going to have five times that $1.2M in 20 years.

You're suggesting he set many $millions on fire so he can hang out in a dorm instead of with the BaySox, and possibly get a degree.  Oh, and not from Stanford.  From Auburn.

[Yardball85]

4 minutes ago, 52520Andrew said:

And once you get work experience people only care that you have a degree.

I cerntainly wouldn't turn down 1+ mil after taxes to go try to play baseball as a pro. If he flames out before Frederick then he wouldn't have survived the SEC anyways. And then he can go back to school a little older and will probably have a better idea of what he wants to do for a degree. The odds of him finishing a degree in 3 years while playing baseball are pretty slim too so he would have to go back to school anyways at some point.

Of course, you are 100% correct (as are Drungo, Weams, OtherRipken, etc.) but atomic will never admit it.  The argument is terrible.  Every point he tries to make renders it worse.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

Yeah, but you know the kids these days with their fancy phones and selfie sticks. He has a lot of experience with spending habits of most 18 year old millionaires. Probably go spend it all on a flat screen TV. 

Anyway... welcome to Birdland, Gunnar. I look forward to seeing what absurd nickname Cy Bundy comes up with. 

It is true that most people who suddenly come into a lot of money burn through it very quickly and have little to show a few years down the road.  I've read articles that most NFL players are essentially bankrupt within two years of leaving the league.  

But then again many (most?) people don't get their degree within four years of going to college, and many graduate with a degree with few practical skills. It's not like Henderson is choosing between an engineering degree from MIT and going to play for the Keys.  He would probably have enrolled in something like a business degree at Auburn, and left school 53 hours short of his degree.

[AceKing]

45 minutes ago, atomic said:

Blah blah blah