I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, weams said:

So a surplus value of about 3 million this year. Right?

I’m going to say yes, based on my observations of what 2B receive in free agency, rather than doing a WAR calculation.    Could be $5 mm maybe depending how good you think he’ll be.   

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to say yes, based on my observations of what 2B receive in free agency, rather than doing a WAR calculation.    Could be $5 mm maybe depending how good you think he’ll be.   

But three is safe? Poor bet to hold on and try to spin later. Unless the money means nothing. I mean it's not like he has an 8 WAR upside. 

[weams]

Bleier lobbies for his money.

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/bleier-i-still-think-i-provide-value-to-the-team.html

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, weams said:

But three is safe? Poor bet to hold on and try to spin later. Unless the money means nothing. I mean it's not like he has an 8 WAR upside. 

We’ve seen his upside.   Best case scenario is approximately what we got last year, and what the Brewers got in 2016.    I certainly wouldn’t rule out that he has another year or two that good left in him.   But it would be imprudent to pay him based on the assumption that will happen.    

[Just Regular]

They're already linked by trade but 2020 Villar gives me somewhat the same vibe as 2019 Schoop, an in-demand commodity after being non-tendered who gets terms at about 75% of the projected arbitration price.

And speaking of Schoop, the Orioles if passing on Villar will have a 2B vacancy again, and Schoop lost his job on a playoff team again.  As for a little while longer, the Orioles will have jobs for guys who want to bet on themselves for team-friendly 1-year contracts.

To finish the Dutch middle infielder segment, I half wonder if we would flirt with Gregorious then.  He is at least a real SS, and it's curious that only Reds among aspirants seem like an obvious market for him (we really are in a great time for shortstops).  If he wants to bat 2nd or 3rd and work off all the injury rust, I do think by July a Top 15 shortstop or two will have their 2020 injury, and would be needed somewhere.  Plus we already have the Orange for the Netherlands crossover market.

[sportsfan8703]

Just as a side note, Villar is the exact type of offensive player that we needed during our run but could never quite get.  Brob wasn't healthy, McClouth had a good half season, and Dexter Fowler played us.  

Moving on...

With the juiced ball, I see no reason why Villar's power surge can't continue.  People rag on Villar for his defense and baserunning mistakes, but I think those are a little nitpicky.  I think Villar would be a heck of a table setter for any team, but we're talking about contenders here.  You put him in Cincinnati's small ballpark, and 90 games versus the NL Central, and he might hit 30 HR.  He can play a respectable SS for at least the 2020 season.  

Again, I don't think we're going to get some huge return, but the idea that we would non tender him seems ridiculous.  My guess is Elias tenders him, Didi makes up his mind, then the Villar market heats up.  The best thing for us would be that the Yankees want to keep Didi and after a bidding war give Didi alot of money.  Thus, making Villar at 1/10 look like a really attractive option.  

[7Mo]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Again, I don't think we're going to get some huge return, but the idea that we would non tender him seems ridiculous.  My guess is Elias tenders him, Didi makes up his mind, then the Villar market heats up.  The best thing for us would be that the Yankees want to keep Didi and after a bidding war give Didi alot of money.  Thus, making Villar at 1/10 look like a really attractive option.  

I don't think we'll non-tender but look at what is suggested for the Marlins....and would we take this type approach, not with spring training results but with whether he's dealt or not? And is that approach bad business?

Also from Jackson’s piece, “the Marlins are leaning toward tendering” a contract to Jose Urena, who is projected for a $4MM salary in arbitration this offseason.  After solid results in 2017-18, Urena struggled to a 5.21 ERA over 84 2/3 innings in a season hampered by injury, and it’s possible Miami could now opt to use him as a reliever rather than the rotation.  Even for a low-payroll team like the Marlins, $4MM doesn’t seem like too expensive a sum for a pitcher with Urena’s resume, though Jackson notes that Miami could tender Urena a contract now and then release him before Opening Day (thus paying only a fraction of his agreed-upon salary) if they don’t like what they see in Spring Training.

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I don't think we'll non-tender but look at what is suggested for the Marlins....and would we take this type approach, not with spring training results but with whether he's dealt or not? And is that approach bad business?

Also from Jackson’s piece, “the Marlins are leaning toward tendering” a contract to Jose Urena, who is projected for a $4MM salary in arbitration this offseason.  After solid results in 2017-18, Urena struggled to a 5.21 ERA over 84 2/3 innings in a season hampered by injury, and it’s possible Miami could now opt to use him as a reliever rather than the rotation.  Even for a low-payroll team like the Marlins, $4MM doesn’t seem like too expensive a sum for a pitcher with Urena’s resume, though Jackson notes that Miami could tender Urena a contract now and then release him before Opening Day (thus paying only a fraction of his agreed-upon salary) if they don’t like what they see in Spring Training.

 

 

Good point.  Similar to what we did with SP Miguel Gonzalez a few years ago.  Fortunately, we're not going to be in this situation with Villar.  And this is not similar to the JJ situation.  I get it people are down on villar, but we're not getting Jemile Weeks or something like the Cashner deal.  

[weams]

On 11/22/2019 at 10:58 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

Good point.  Similar to what we did with SP Miguel Gonzalez a few years ago.  Fortunately, we're not going to be in this situation with Villar.  And this is not similar to the JJ situation.  I get it people are down on villar, but we're not getting Jemile Weeks or something like the Cashner deal.  

The Cashner return would be worthwhile. I still think fear of capture will get him Non-Tender

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The Cashner return would be worthwhile. I still think fear of capture will get him Non-Tender

I’d really lose confidence in Elias if we just threw the towel in like that.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d really lose confidence in Elias if we just threw the towel in like that.

Why would you lose confidence in Elias?  It wouldn't be him, it would be ownership.

[7Mo]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’d really lose confidence in Elias if we just threw the towel in like that.

I'm confident Elias will do the legwork to know what each interested team is willing to offer. 

If he's non-tendered, to me, it means no one would offer anything of any value at all. I'm confident that won't happen. But if it does, I don't think the fault lies with Elias. 

Think about what Elias said with Cashner....there's a difference in how he's valuing trade proposals on an asset he's going to lose, like he was going to lose Cashner. If the alternative is a non-tender, it would be similar. 

[sportsfan8703]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would you lose confidence in Elias?  It wouldn't be him, it would be ownership.

True and good point, but right now I have confidence that Elias can convince ownership to  make moves based on value and not just about money. Other than not spending all of our international money, we haven’t really seen Elias hamstrung yet. 

[weams]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

True and good point, but right now I have confidence that Elias can convince ownership to  make moves based on value and not just about money. Other than not spending all of our international money, we haven’t really seen Elias hamstrung yet. 

There is no consultation on moves. And there is a budget. It just includes Chris Davis probably for the length of  Elias tenure. The return on Villar is likely to be so negligible that the reasoning would be not to spend money on a pass year. 

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Why would you lose confidence in Elias?  It wouldn't be him, it would be ownership.

He’s said to have full control. Nontendering a 3 WAR player would be a stupid baseball decision. One that would only be done by a moron owner. 
 

as I mentioned before, if you can’t get good value extend him for 2-3 years at 6.5 per. Give us something worthwhile to watch.

Also a Cashner like return for Villar would be an insult. Hopefully Elias feels the same way