40 man additions for rule 5 protection?

[weams]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Akin is no sure thing.  Elias likes his prospects developed before they get the promotion.  Akin right now  looks like he will not be in the O's rotation at the beginning of 2020. 

Or "Elias sees no reason to promote prospects to a team that is not going to win 55 games. "

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Or "Elias sees no reason to promote prospects to a team that is not going to win 55 games. "

Well, not quite.   I don't see Mountcastle staying at AAA past mid April.  Hays could be promoted if he ever hits.

[AnythingO's]

31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

23m a year for 3 years in 69m after this season.   About 8m still to earn this season.

PLus the $6 M deferred for the years 1-4, so another $24 M I think.

[jerios55]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

23m a year for 3 years in 69m after this season.   About 8m still to earn this season.

The 23mill average is based on deferred money too, money that he would have earned after he was released, cut, retired, whatever anyway.  We were never going to get HRs when that money was paid out.  His yearly salary the next 3 years is 17 million/per.  After the season the 3 remaining seasons is 51mill.  

That 51mill is what's will be left during the time they expected a return.  To me, that's the number they need to be comfortable eating. 

If you count actually pay out they owe him 8ish this year, 51 next 3 years and like 42 million deferred over 15years.  So they still need pay him over 100 million over the next 19 years.  

The playing window of 7 years (ie 23 mill average) is used to calculate luxury tax numbers.  So the 42mill ÷ 7 years adds 6 million to calculate the average per year number we see.

Any way they look at it, they agreed to a bad deal.  They will likely pay every dime either way (I cant picture a buy out of any kind).  I would just consider the 51 mill as the loss for the time I expected some value.

[LookinUp]

I don't think they cut him until spring training next year. After game 162 this year, they're not really paying him until game #1 next year. Might as well give ownership the carrot that we're giving him every chance to succeed. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

From who?  

Means isn't going to better than he did this season.

Bundy may do better but there is no guarantee of that.

Wojo is a question mark.

Will Cobb be healthy?

Akin probably begins the season at AAA.

The Bowie crowd will get at least a half season at AAA if Elias holds to what he has been doing.  Maybe a whole season.

Oh we HAVE to bring up A couple of the minor leaguers, don’t we? We can’t let them suffer forever… Or us either.

[thezeroes]

The issue I have with the worry over the forty man roster and who to protect in the Rule 5 at this point in the season is that INJURIES and PEDS have come into play every year for all teams.  If a player has season ending TJ Surgery or Hip Replacement or first/second time caught with PEDS all the reason to protect or draft these players becomes mute.  Ask again after September 30, 2019 and answers would have way more meaning IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

The issue I have with the worry over the forty man roster and who to protect in the Rule 5 at this point in the season is that INJURIES and PEDS have come into play every year for all teams.  If a player has season ending TJ Surgery or Hip Replacement or first/second time caught with PEDS all the reason to protect or draft these players becomes mute.  Ask again after September 30, 2019 and answers would have way more meaning IMO.

How many guys that are on/are candidates for the 40 test positive for PEDs in a given year?  I'm going to guess maybe two?  If anything the kids in the minors are more likely to get popped for drugs of abuse (weed).

[thezeroes]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many guys that are on/are candidates for the 40 test positive for PEDs in a given year?  I'm going to guess maybe two?  If anything the kids in the minors are more likely to get popped for drugs of abuse (weed).

And not worthy of protection if banned for Fifty Days next season. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

And not worthy of protection if banned for Fifty Days next season. 

I'm just wondering why you are bothering mentioning failed PED tests as if that is much of an actual thing.  The odds of a failed PED impacting a 40 man decision are very small.

[jerios55]

I don't think injury changes much either, since 60 days IL guys count on the 40 man in the offseason.

Performance may change things, but that's about it to me.

[Lucky_13]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

From who?  

Means isn't going to better than he did this season.

Bundy may do better but there is no guarantee of that.

Wojo is a question mark.

Will Cobb be healthy?

Akin probably begins the season at AAA.

The Bowie crowd will get at least a half season at AAA if Elias holds to what he has been doing.  Maybe a whole season.

Yeah I doubt we see any of Bowie's current rotation in Baltimore until September of next year at the earliest. They probably all finish this year at AA and start at Norfolk next year. 

Zimmermann might compete for a rotation spot next spring depending on his finish at AAA but thats about it in terms of internal candidates imo. Akin has really struggled. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

 He also amounted to nothing for us, while taking up a roster spot on a team that should have been a contender coming off of 2014. Admittedly, looking at his stats, he was not as much of a disaster as I remember him being. Anyway, if Peralta is our Jason Garcia, I am fine with letting him slip away if we have another good use for the spot, including someone else's Santander.

And most early-stage company investments amount to nothing.  That doesn't mean VC/early stage firms stop investing in them.

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

And most early-stage company investments amount to nothing.  That doesn't mean VC/early stage firms stop investing in them.

Rule 5 guys aren't early stage venture capital, it's shopping for bargain companies that nobody wants any more, like penny stocks.

[thezeroes]

On 8/2/2019 at 7:06 PM, jerios55 said:

I don't think injury changes much either, since 60 days IL guys count on the 40 man in the offseason.

Performance may change things, but that's about it to me.

I was referring to those in the Minors that would have a career altering injury.  Why would a team pick them in the Rule 5 Draft???  Why would a team protect them from the Rule 5 Draft???