There have been a lot of good developments this year

[LookinUp]

12 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think we've seen this from Castro before.  I hope he's figuring it out, too.  But need to see it for an extended period of time.  

Very true, but I actually think these guys might be getting through to him. He needed to control his stuff. The arm talent is there.

As for Nunez, it’s a nice development for a rebuilding team and he’s cheap, but I’m not sure he’s the bat only guy who makes a big difference on a winning team. He might have a spot, but he’s replaceable too.

[tntoriole]

25 minutes ago, weams said:

No no. I am not calling him a cheat. He told you he was a cheat. And he has never spoken about his current state.

 

 

He said he took steroids after having lost 40 lbs secondary to an H pylori infection prior to going to spring training in offseason 2012.  But  I think he likely was taking them to performance enhance way prior to that aka Raffy. And he was suspended 50 games, publically shamed and  lost millions in subsequent contracts and will never see the Hall of Fame related to his behavior.  Punishment sufficient in my book...but the real question is whether he has used ever since as you suggest. 

 I just am willing to perhaps give him the benefit of the doubt since 2013 in the recent MLB testing  environment which is likely even more rigorous contractually for him, but he could somehow still  be evading I suppose.  

And he answered some of these questions in Seattle...https://blog.seattlepi.com/baseball/2014/12/04/new-mariners-slugger-nelson-cruz-explains-his-mistake-with-performance-enhancing-drugs/

 

[atomic]

5 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You know exactly what I'm doing - I'm comparing him to the type of player you begged the team to sign, but instead they acquired a average MLB DH for nothing, are paying him nothing, and all you do is complain that he's not Nelson Cruz at peak suspicion.

Núñez is having about as good a year as 2016 Pedro Alvarez. Except at 1/10th the salary and he doesn't need to be platooned so he'll get around 600 PAs instead of 376.

I never begged team to sign a DH.  I dont want a full time DH on the team.  I said the team should sign a shortstop and pitchers.  I dont want guys who cant field and hit to low average.   You are making very poor arguments as they have nothing to do what I have ever said.  I didnt want Pedro Alvarez on the team either.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, tntoriole said:

He said he took steroids after having lost 40 lbs secondary to an H pylori infection prior to going to spring training in offseason 2012.  But  I think he likely was taking them to performance enhance way prior to that aka Raffy. And he was suspended 50 games, publically shamed and  lost millions in subsequent contracts and will never see the Hall of Fame related to his behavior.  Punishment sufficient in my book...but the real question is whether he has used ever since as you suggest. 

 I just am willing to perhaps give him the benefit of the doubt since 2013 in the recent MLB testing  environment which is likely even more rigorous contractually for him, but he could somehow still  be evading I suppose.  

And he answered some of these questions in Seattle...https://blog.seattlepi.com/baseball/2014/12/04/new-mariners-slugger-nelson-cruz-explains-his-mistake-with-performance-enhancing-drugs/

 

Sure, he could naturally have a better aging profile than Hank Aaron or Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays or really just about anyone.  It's possible.  If you take tens of thousands of players a couple of them might have their peak at 36 or 38, and have a far, far better 33-40 than 23-30.  That could be Nelson Cruz, just from hard work and genetics, despite being previously popped for using drugs whose primary impact is delaying or reversing aging in athletes.  I guess.

[DrungoHazewood]

5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

But one thing for sure is that his performance at his age ranks with the best in baseball history.

Nelson Cruz was a 12-win player through age 32.  If you look at all the players since WWII who were 10-14 win players through 32 Cruz has the most value since 32 (25.4 rWAR) and he's still at or near peak at 39.  The only other player remotely close to him is Enos Slaughter, and Slaughter missed his age 27-29 seasons due to WWII, so he's not really a comp.  The next player on the comp list is Elston Howard, who was famously stuck behind Yogi in New York for years.  After that it's Mark Grudzielanek, who was worth just slightly more after age 32 then before and who also happened to play in the we're looking the other way on PEDs era. 

There are only seven players comparable to Cruz since 1945 who were worth more after 32 than before, and several of them have obvious asterisks explaining why.  Cruz' production has been more than double, and he's showing absolutely no signs of slowing down.

Basically, nobody is remotely close to as productive as Cruz after having been so moderately productive in their 20s.  If this is natural he's an outlier of an outlier of an outlier.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Nelson Cruz was a 12-win player through age 32.  If you look at all the players since WWII who were 10-14 win players through 32 Cruz has the most value since 32 (25.4 rWAR) and he's still at or near peak at 39.  The only other player remotely close to him is Enos Slaughter, and Slaughter missed his age 27-29 seasons due to WWII, so he's not really a comp.  The next player on the comp list is Elston Howard, who was famously stuck behind Yogi in New York for years.  After that it's Mark Grudzielanek, who was worth just slightly more after age 32 then before and who also happened to play in the we're looking the other way on PEDs era. 

There are only seven players comparable to Cruz since 1945 who were worth more after 32 than before, and several of them have obvious asterisks explaining why.  Cruz' production has been more than double, and he's showing absolutely no signs of slowing down.

Basically, nobody is remotely close to as productive as Cruz after having been so moderately productive in their 20s.  If this is natural he's an outlier of an outlier of an outlier.

David Ortiz had a similar career arc in many ways.  He had 27.4 WAR in 9 seasons prior to 32 and then 26 WAR from 33-40. 

He obviously had steroid questions as well though he never admitted to it or was sanctioned.  He had a substantial dropoff in his production in 2008 and 2009 in ages 32-33 season at 1.7 and 0.7 WAR.  But then he took off again as he aged from 34-40 and accumulated nearly as much WAR as before through age 40 and closed his career with a 5.2 WAR season at 40. 

Are these two simply outstanding Dominican American ultra hitters who became more and more productive  in this modern era...or are they simply undetected, long term PEDs users...could be either or, I suppose. 

[GuidoSarducci]

WRT to Nunez, lets take a look at the DHs on the AL division leaders or competing for a wildcard spot

Yanks:  Encarnacion  OPS 824 in 36 GP, though he just went to the 10-day IL.   Previously they had used Morales (OPS 562), Andujar (OPS 271), and I think Stanton (OPS 840 in 9 GP before he went to the IL)

Rays: Meadows, OPS 878

Twins: Cruz, OPS 1030

Indians: Reyes OPS 768 in 30 GP.   They also used Ramirez (OPS 625)  for 16 games and Bradley ( OPS 600) for 15 games  I'm not sure if the Indians even really have a full time DH, as they only ones listed haven't played many games.  They could be rotating their positional guys in, but since I don't follow them I don't know. 

Astros:  Alvarez  OPS 1084 in 66 GP.  I think they also use Springer (OPS 962) but would have to check on that. 

Athletics:   Davis OPS 685. 

So Nunez with his 785 OPS would almost certainty start for the Athletics, and maybe for the Indians.  

Of course I would like to see more production out of the DH, particularly for the Os, our teams only do well when we have great offense, at least since Camden Yards opened up. 

But Nunez is only 25 and this is only his first full year (he got a half year last year).  For all we know he could start putting up 850+ OPS next year.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[weams]

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-minors-playoff-pitching-20190907-x7mbaxn3e5gehe6ifaefe6slgq-story.html

[atomic]

On 9/3/2019 at 4:18 PM, GuidoSarducci said:

WRT to Nunez, lets take a look at the DHs on the AL division leaders or competing for a wildcard spot

Yanks:  Encarnacion  OPS 824 in 36 GP, though he just went to the 10-day IL.   Previously they had used Morales (OPS 562), Andujar (OPS 271), and I think Stanton (OPS 840 in 9 GP before he went to the IL)

Rays: Meadows, OPS 878

Twins: Cruz, OPS 1030

Indians: Reyes OPS 768 in 30 GP.   They also used Ramirez (OPS 625)  for 16 games and Bradley ( OPS 600) for 15 games  I'm not sure if the Indians even really have a full time DH, as they only ones listed haven't played many games.  They could be rotating their positional guys in, but since I don't follow them I don't know. 

Astros:  Alvarez  OPS 1084 in 66 GP.  I think they also use Springer (OPS 962) but would have to check on that. 

Athletics:   Davis OPS 685. 

So Nunez with his 785 OPS would almost certainty start for the Athletics, and maybe for the Indians.  

Of course I would like to see more production out of the DH, particularly for the Os, our teams only do well when we have great offense, at least since Camden Yards opened up. 

But Nunez is only 25 and this is only his first full year (he got a half year last year).  For all we know he could start putting up 850+ OPS next year.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Never mind that Athletics are in a super friendly pitchers park and Camden Yards is home run haven. 

[Il BuonO]

28 minutes ago, atomic said:

Never mind that Athletics are in a super friendly pitchers park and Camden Yards is home run haven. 

OPS+ (park adjusted) for Davis (76) and Nunez (105).

[atomic]

10 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

OPS+ (park adjusted) for Davis (76) and Nunez (105).

Davis had 137 last year and 131 the year before. They didnt go into the season with a plan to have a bad  DH. There is no reason to think Nunez would start for As.  

[VaBird1]

On 9/2/2019 at 3:49 PM, tntoriole said:

David Ortiz had a similar career arc in many ways.  He had 27.4 WAR in 9 seasons prior to 32 and then 26 WAR from 33-40. 

He obviously had steroid questions as well though he never admitted to it or was sanctioned.  He had a substantial dropoff in his production in 2008 and 2009 in ages 32-33 season at 1.7 and 0.7 WAR.  But then he took off again as he aged from 34-40 and accumulated nearly as much WAR as before through age 40 and closed his career with a 5.2 WAR season at 40. 

Are these two simply outstanding Dominican American ultra hitters who became more and more productive  in this modern era...or are they simply undetected, long term PEDs users...could be either or, I suppose. 

They did both test positive though, right?

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

Davis had 137 last year and 131 the year before. They didnt go into the season with a plan to have a bad  DH. There is no reason to think Nunez would start for As.  

Your comment was based on the fact that Oakland is a pitchers park. OPS+ adjusts for that. 

[weams]

On 9/2/2019 at 2:09 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

Sure, he could naturally have a better aging profile than Hank Aaron or Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays or really just about anyone.  It's possible.  If you take tens of thousands of players a couple of them might have their peak at 36 or 38, and have a far, far better 33-40 than 23-30.  That could be Nelson Cruz, just from hard work and genetics, despite being previously popped for using drugs whose primary impact is delaying or reversing aging in athletes.  I guess.

Of course he uses. He learned the correct way to dose. I still like him but to suspect he has done any of this clean is not realistic. I have no issue with his defensive metrics either. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, VaBird1 said:

They did both test positive though, right?

Cruz never TESTED positive. He was caught in the biogenesis paper trail. Ortiz did, but was exempt from punishment.