What will Villar's trade value be this off-season?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

How can you be so sure that they won't see him as a guy who takes just enough risks to be a positive contributor?  You don't necessarily get to the playoffs on the backs of guys who staunchly refuse to take any chances on the bases.

I'll admit, I'm biased towards Villar, but I do see him as a sold contributor. I don't think the Orioles want to sign him long term, and I don't know the Orioles budget but does Elias want to open $7M on Villar or invest those funds into player development. If money wasn't an issue, I would have no problem tendering Villar. 

[NCRaven]

On 9/13/2019 at 1:22 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

Right. You'll sometimes hear of a player being a huge gate draw by himself.  Once in a long while there's a Fidrych, Fernando, Strasburg.  But 99% of the time the impact is so small you could round it to zero.

On a side note, each of your examples are pitchers.  And, I think that comes into play when it's a visitor.  If Detroit was coming to town, you wanted to go to the game that Fidrych pitched.  But, Kirk Gibson played every day so there wasn't the same draw or urgency to see a game for him.  I think that this is the down side to the modern pitcher usage.  You won't have the star starters that have been the big draws historically.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

 I said this before, but Villar is an accumulator. He accumulates stats on bad teams that are willing to overlook his defense and poor base running and give him regular ABs. There's a reason why he hasn't been an everyday player for most of his career.

You keep calling Villar a poor baserunner, when in fact he’s one of the best baserunners in MLB.

BB-ref has him at +6 baserunning runs, 5th in MLB.

Fangraphs has him at +9.5, tops in the majors.    

BP has him at +5.9, 7th in MLB.

But go ahead, keep calling him a poor baserunner because you once saw him do something overly aggressive on the basepaths.    I’m not going to deny that he makes mistakes occasionally, but on balance his baserunning is a big plus.

He’s 4th in the majors in steals, while maintaining an 81% success rate.   

He’s 8th in the majors in bases taken, which includes advances on fly balls, balks, wild pitches, passed balls and defensive indifference.   

He advances an extra base on a single or double 62% of the time; major league average is 41%.    

Bottom line, Villar has created several more runs with his baserunning than he’s lost by any mistakes he’s made.    

[BamaOsFan]

Keep him. Whom do we have to replace him? With Trumbo coming off the books the money should be available.

[Sessh]

3 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Bad is bad. You can't just ignore that fact because you don't think he had enough ABs. I said this before, but Villar is an accumulator. He accumulates stats on bad teams that are willing to overlook his defense and poor base running and give him regular ABs. There's a reason why he hasn't been an everyday player for most of his career. 

Also, unless you have a crystal ball the only thing we have to help us to predicate the future is past performance. So yes, I do think if he flopped in 2017 there's a a chance he does the same in 2020. 

 

Wrong again. He was not an everyday player for the first three years and was for the last four years. It really is getting silly how far you're willing to go to get another backhand in against Villar and it's usually a whiff. As for flopping and crystal balls, you seem to think you have a crystal ball for sure. Of course there's a chance. There's a chance with literally every player in baseball, so what's your point? He's been solid three of the last four years and you're going to place your bets on the one bad year that happened three years ago despite there being two solid years in a row now? I really just don't get why you're so against Villar to this extent.

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You keep calling Villar a poor baserunner, when in fact he’s one of the best baserunners in MLB.

BB-ref has him at +6 baserunning runs, 5th in MLB.

Fangraphs has him at +9.5, tops in the majors.    

BP has him at +5.9, 7th in MLB.

But go ahead, keep calling him a poor baserunner because you once saw him do something overly aggressive on the basepaths.    I’m not going to deny that he makes mistakes occasionally, but on balance his baserunning is a big plus.

He’s 4th in the majors in steals, while maintaining an 81% success rate.   

He’s 8th in the majors in bases taken, which includes advances on fly balls, balks, wild pitches, passed balls and defensive indifference.   

He advances an extra base on a single or double 62% of the time; major league average is 41%.    

Bottom line, Villar has created several more runs with his baserunning than he’s lost by any mistakes he’s made.    

Thank you. People keep repeating the whole "he's bad on the bases" thing over and over again when it's simply not true. Again, I really don't get why Villar is such a target for these kinds of erroneous judgements. I suppose it's pointless to continue refuting the same things over and over again because no one seems to care what the facts are.

[Finisher]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

But go ahead, keep calling him a poor baserunner because you once saw him do something overly aggressive on the basepaths.    I’m not going to deny that he makes mistakes occasionally, but on balance his baserunning is a big plus.

Truly incredible that a few early season baserunning blunders having created an unshakeable perception amongst some people.

Also 21 homers/35 steals with a .343 OBP being brushed off by these folks is hilarious.

[wildbillhiccup]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You keep calling Villar a poor baserunner, when in fact he’s one of the best baserunners in MLB.

BB-ref has him at +6 baserunning runs, 5th in MLB.

Fangraphs has him at +9.5, tops in the majors.    

BP has him at +5.9, 7th in MLB.

But go ahead, keep calling him a poor baserunner because you once saw him do something overly aggressive on the basepaths.    I’m not going to deny that he makes mistakes occasionally, but on balance his baserunning is a big plus.

He’s 4th in the majors in steals, while maintaining an 81% success rate.   

He’s 8th in the majors in bases taken, which includes advances on fly balls, balks, wild pitches, passed balls and defensive indifference.   

He advances an extra base on a single or double 62% of the time; major league average is 41%.    

Bottom line, Villar has created several more runs with his baserunning than he’s lost by any mistakes he’s made.    

This is the first time I've ever mentioned it. You're probably thinking of the half dozen other posters who have pointed it out. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I assume you meant 2ish per season.   

Yes, per season. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think the trade market for Villar is going to be limited. A playoff team looks at Villar's defense and base running, and they see him as a player who will run into the last out of a playoff series. Or make the errant throw or miss a ground ball that gets through for the go ahead run.

Villar has value, but the question is would the return in a trade be enough to justify paying him $7M or $8M in 2020. And one more thing, Villar's OPS+ is 109. With offense up in MLB his stats don't look as good when they are normalized against league average and ballpark effects.  

 

There isn't a single point I don't agree with in this post. Well said. 

[wildbillhiccup]

8 minutes ago, Finisher said:

Truly incredible that a few early season baserunning blunders having created an unshakeable perception amongst some people.

Also 21 homers/35 steals with a .343 OBP being brushed off by these folks is hilarious.

The steals yes and OBP yes, but the power is mediocre in this era, even for a middle infielder. I think there are very few middle infielders who can't approach 20 HRs if they get 500+ ABs in the juiced ball era. Also, the point I've tried to make several times is that Villar has yet to string together to great seasons like this. There's inherent risk in signing a player to a 2 - 3 year deal (as some have suggested) who hasn't demonstrated consistency at any point in his career. He's also too old for you to chalk it up to him just maturing as a player. I appreciate the season that Villar had, but we should shake his hand, thank him for his service, and let someone take on the risk of giving him a multi-year deal. 

[wildbillhiccup]

19 minutes ago, Sessh said:

Wrong again. He was not an everyday player for the first three years and was for the last four years. It really is getting silly how far you're willing to go to get another backhand in against Villar and it's usually a whiff. As for flopping and crystal balls, you seem to think you have a crystal ball for sure. Of course there's a chance. There's a chance with literally every player in baseball, so what's your point? He's been solid three of the last four years and you're going to place your bets on the one bad year that happened three years ago despite there being two solid years in a row now? I really just don't get why you're so against Villar to this extent.

Thank you. People keep repeating the whole "he's bad on the bases" thing over and over again when it's simply not true. Again, I really don't get why Villar is such a target for these kinds of erroneous judgements. I suppose it's pointless to continue refuting the same things over and over again because no one seems to care what the facts are.

 

So Villar is a player who can only produce when he gets 500+ ABs? That's interesting because PLENTY of players have been able to post good numbers in small sample sizes over time. Again, this whole back and forth isn't so much as a knock against Villar as it is a knock against you suggesting we sign him to a 2-3 year deal. We can argue all day about whether or not Villar is a good player (or will continue to be one), but there is no scenario in which it makes sense to give him a 2-3 year deal. 

[Yardball85]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The steals yes and OBP yes, but the power is mediocre in this era, even for a middle infielder. I think there are very few middle infielders who can't approach 20 HRs if they get 500+ ABs in the juiced ball era. Also, the point I've tried to make several times is that Villar has yet to string together to great seasons like this. There's inherent risk in signing a player to a 2 - 3 year deal (as some have suggested) who hasn't demonstrated consistency at any point in his career. He's also too old for you to chalk it up to him just maturing as a player. I appreciate the season that Villar had, but we should shake his hand, thank him for his service, and let someone take on the risk of giving him a multi-year deal. 

I probably wouldn't give him a mutli-year deal, but it's not ridiculous to expect a decent return for him (one player from a team's top ten prospects and one from their top 20).  If you don't get the return, you tender him and hope you can deal him at the deadline.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I probably wouldn't give him a mutli-year deal, but it's not ridiculous to expect a decent return for him (one player from a team's top ten prospects and one from their top 20).  If you don't get the return, you tender him and hope you can deal him at the deadline.

There is ZERO chance they get that type of return for Villar. Zero. And they're not getting it at the deadline either. You're asking for a Machado like return just to put things in context. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There is ZERO chance they get that type of return for Villar. Zero. And they're not getting it at the deadline either. You're asking for a Machado like return just to put things in context. 

I agree that sounds pretty optimistic for a player who’s only under control for one year, and who isn’t considered to be an upper echelon player.

 

[LookinUp]

I think Villar's profile has improved pretty dramatically since the trade deadline. That doesn't mean I think he'll garner a really good return in a trade, but there was a time where tendering him was assumed to be something we would not do. Now most are assuming we have to and even have a chance to trade him to another team for whom it might make sense to sign him to a 2-3 year deal. That's good.