MLBTR: Orioles Outlook

[weams]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/offseason-outlook-baltimore-orioles-10.html

 

Quote

The Orioles aren’t obligated contractually for very much spending, but the promises they do have out — to Chris Davis and Alex Cobb — are near-complete write-offs. That’s not to say that a turnaround is impossible to imagine in either case, though it’s tougher to envision for Davis. (Whether and when he’s cut loose may be an ownership call.) The O’s will hope that Cobb can function as an important part of their 2020 pitching mix and perhaps ultimately be dealt. But it’s nearly impossible to imagine either contract being movable this winter.

Things begin getting interesting from a transactional perspective when you look down the list of arbitration-eligible players. I’ve recently suggested Jonathan Villar as a trade candidate. But my eyes bulged when I saw his arbitration projection. It’s tough to see Villar as a highly appealing trade candidate at that price. The O’s may well be better served letting him go test the market while reinvesting the cash on other opportunities. Hanser Alberto is an easier piece to move, though the Baltimore organization may also prefer to maintain the middle-infield stability if nothing interesting is offered up (especially if Villar is sent packing).

With little in the way of player-contract trade capital, Elias and co. have surely dedicated a good amount of thought and analysis to a trio of fairly intriguing, homegrown players. First baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini is the organization’s best hitter and current flag bearer. Righty Dylan Bundy is still youthful and possesses relatively rare swing-and-miss stuff for a starter. And reliever Mychal Givens has an electric arm, though as with Bundy that hasn’t always translated to results. It’s not hard to imagine each of these players drawing trade interest from various other organizations. None is dirt cheap or without his warts, but each now has ample MLB experience and an appealing skillset.

 

 

[Il BuonO]

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

[tntoriole]

38 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

Yeah...go find another Altuve.   lol.   So much of this game is just luck, pure and simple.  All the projections and data in the world don’t explain heart and drive. 

[Il BuonO]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Yeah...go find another Altuve.   lol.   So much of this game is just luck, pure and simple.  All the projections and data in the world don’t explain heart and drive. 

They already did in some form. Ok, Alberto is a poor man’s Altuve, but it’s a start. At a minimum I never would have expected what he gave them.

Altuve is a rare case, signed for very little, has great bat speed and a tremendous desire to succeed. One of my favorites.

[weams]

3 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

They already did in some form. Ok, Alberto is a poor man’s Altuve, but it’s a start. At a minimum I never would have expected what he gave them.

Altuve is a rare case, signed for very little, has great bat speed and a tremendous desire to succeed. One of my favorites.

And a physical aberration in the sport.  Real tough to scout such physical outliers.

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Yeah...go find another Altuve.   lol.   So much of this game is just luck, pure and simple.  All the projections and data in the world don’t explain heart and drive. 

But they improved Altuve.

The next early victory came the following year. Altuve had been an All-Star in 2012, his first full season, but even then he’d barely been a league-average hitter. At 22, he’d been named to the team mostly because someone had to represent the woeful Astros. The next season, his bat went backward. The tiny Altuve, who’d signed out of Venezuela for only $15,000 and had never appeared on top-prospect lists, had defied the odds and flummoxed scouts just by getting to the big leagues, but his five-foot-five-ish head seemed to be bumping up against a low power ceiling: Through more than 1,500 MLB plate appearances, he’d slugged just .377.

Over the 2013–2014 offseason, he worked with the team to implement a more forceful approach. “That was [hitting coach] John Mallee,” Fast says. “And it was based on data that I shared with him (from his questions) about the value of getting the ball in the air. He told Altuve to meet the ball out front and helped him retool his swing to do that.” Altuve slumped as he perfected the timing of a new leg kick, and at the end of April his slugging percentage still stood in the .370s. After that, though, the new swing clicked: he batted .355 and slugged .471 the rest of the way, winning a batting title, leading the majors in hits, and finishing third in doubles. He was on his way to double-digit home-run totals and a 2017 MVP award.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting

[mdbdotcom]

14 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

They already did in some form. Ok, Alberto is a poor man’s Altuve, but it’s a start. At a minimum I never would have expected what he gave them.

Altuve is a rare case, signed for very little, has great bat speed and a tremendous desire to succeed. One of my favorites.

Al-berto, Al-tuve ... coincidence? I like Hanser and I hope they hold on to him to see if they can develop a few more surprises. $1.8 million is a small price to pay to see if they've got a 25-year old diamond in the rough in Alberto. Among all the guys on their arb. list, I think he's the one worth keeping.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, John Welch said:

But they improved Altuve.

The next early victory came the following year. Altuve had been an All-Star in 2012, his first full season, but even then he’d barely been a league-average hitter. At 22, he’d been named to the team mostly because someone had to represent the woeful Astros. The next season, his bat went backward. The tiny Altuve, who’d signed out of Venezuela for only $15,000 and had never appeared on top-prospect lists, had defied the odds and flummoxed scouts just by getting to the big leagues, but his five-foot-five-ish head seemed to be bumping up against a low power ceiling: Through more than 1,500 MLB plate appearances, he’d slugged just .377.

Over the 2013–2014 offseason, he worked with the team to implement a more forceful approach. “That was [hitting coach] John Mallee,” Fast says. “And it was based on data that I shared with him (from his questions) about the value of getting the ball in the air. He told Altuve to meet the ball out front and helped him retool his swing to do that.” Altuve slumped as he perfected the timing of a new leg kick, and at the end of April his slugging percentage still stood in the .370s. After that, though, the new swing clicked: he batted .355 and slugged .471 the rest of the way, winning a batting title, leading the majors in hits, and finishing third in doubles. He was on his way to double-digit home-run totals and a 2017 MVP award.

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting

I agree...development is very important...but organizations winning pennants usually have a few players who have become superstars when everybody, including often the team that picks them,  did not even think they would make the majors.   Drive and ambition is a hard variable to measure quantitatively but in many fields of high  performance skills sets, it turns out to be the determining factor between average and superstar.   On our team right now, I have always, always been high on Trey since he was at Frederick because he has drive like no Oriole I have seen since Cal.  He demands so much of himself and is willing to adjust, modify, tweak, grow...I think he will continue to exceed expectations in a major way even from where he is now. 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, mdbdotcom said:

Al-berto, Al-tuve ... coincidence?

So we need guys named Al?

[Philip]

2 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree...development is very important...but organizations winning pennants usually have a few players who have become superstars when everybody, including often the team that picks them,  did not even think they would make the majors.   Drive and ambition is a hard variable to measure quantitatively but in many fields of high  performance skills sets, it turns out to be the determining factor between average and superstar.   On our team right now, I have always, always been high on Trey since he was at Frederick because he has drive like no Oriole I have seen since Cal.  He demands so much of himself and is willing to adjust, modify, tweak, grow...I think he will continue to exceed expectations in a major way even from where he is now. 

Mancini’s problem is that he can neither defend nor run. I am unclear whether Hard work and increased knowledge can make one a better defender( Positioning can certainly compensate for weakness, but positioning is determined by the coaches and not by the player) But I am inclined to think that when you look at Mancini you are seeing pretty much the final product. With that in mind he should be treated as soon as someone better, or even as good is available

[7Mo]

6 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree...development is very important...but organizations winning pennants usually have a few players who have become superstars when everybody, including often the team that picks them,  did not even think they would make the majors.   Drive and ambition is a hard variable to measure quantitatively but in many fields of high  performance skills sets, it turns out to be the determining factor between average and superstar.   On our team right now, I have always, always been high on Trey since he was at Frederick because he has drive like no Oriole I have seen since Cal.  He demands so much of himself and is willing to adjust, modify, tweak, grow...I think he will continue to exceed expectations in a major way even from where he is now. 

Completely agree. Most people would think that guys with an opportunity to play major league baseball would have a great work ethic and seek improvement anywhere they can. Not true. 

And not all players buy into instruction or take advantage of information that can help them. From The Athletic:

When I asked Cardinals hitters how much they took advantage of the new technology offered them — including Blast motion sensors, K-vests and high-speed video — the reactions seemed to range from outright lack of interest (Harrison Bader) to tepid curiosity (Paul Goldschmidt and Paul DeJong). DeJong toyed with the motion sensors (which fit onto the knob of the bat). Goldschmidt recalled using the K-vests a time or two.

[tntoriole]

3 minutes ago, Philip said:

Mancini’s problem is that he can neither defend nor run. I am unclear whether Hard work and increased knowledge can make one a better defender( Positioning can certainly compensate for weakness, but positioning is determined by the coaches and not by the player) But I am inclined to think that when you look at Mancini you are seeing pretty much the final product. With that in mind he should be treated as soon as someone better, or even as good is available

There were those on this board who believed he was not going to make the team and said so relentlessly, who said he would never hit even 20 home runs and said so over and over, who said he would certainly not have the year he had this year but instead was peaked out at 2018 performance levels. 

He is a more than adequate first baseman and he would have already played there exclusively if not for a certain albatross on the team.  He will have a better season next year in every category than he had this year, imho.  He learns offensively and he learns to change what is not working.   At the same time, if ME can get true value in return, it would be an excellent time to trade him. 

[Philip]

8 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

There were those on this board who believed he was not going to make the team and said so relentlessly, who said he would never hit even 20 home runs and said so over and over, who said he would certainly not have the year he had this year but instead was peaked out at 2018 performance levels. 

He is a more than adequate first baseman and he would have already played there exclusively if not for a certain albatross on the team.  He will have a better season next year in every category than he had this year, imho.  He learns offensively and he learns to change what is not working.   At the same time, if ME can get true value in return, it would be an excellent time to trade him. 

I don’t disagree with anything you wrote. For the record, I was urgently in favor of letting Trumbo go and letting Mancini replace him, on the grounds that a cheap limited player is better than an expensive limited player. Yes he is an adequate first baseman, but nothing more, and adequate first basemen are plentiful. Heck, even Trumbo was an adequate first baseman, so were Mark Reynolds or Danny Valencia. And we have several other potentially adequate first basemen who will become the “limited and cheap” player that Trey will no longer be after next season(maybe after this season, too. Not sure where he is in the Arb sequence)

so trade him if possible or let him go when he gets too expensive and shuffle in another limited but cheap guy.

and try to stop drafting limited players.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

 

so trade him if possible or let him go when he gets too expensive and shuffle in another limited but cheap guy.

and try to stop drafting limited players.

How many major leaguers get drafted with round?

And by limited do you mean limited to hitting the snot out of the baseball?

[weams]

I'd rather draft a guy with two 50 tools than one with four 40's.