2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[Philip]

40 minutes ago, John Welch said:

You don't move Mancini, now, spring training, or at the deadline unless you can get something that you deem "makes us better". I believe that will be possible this offseason. You seem to have far less faith in that idea.

That is correct, I don’t think Trey has very much trade value. Everybody in town is hitting homeruns. His overall offense is good, and not limited to home runs, but I don’t think he would bring back enough to warrant moving him.

If Mc is brought up, that makes Mancini less valuable because they perform the same skill and it would require some defensive sacrifices to play them both at the same time. That’s why Davis is pertinent; his presence decreases roster flexibility(even with the 26th man)

I think the best time to trade him might be after the season starts when Mc is ready to come up and after Trey has had a good start. But I trust Elias to do it at the best time. I also trust Elias To not do it at all if he thinks that’s best.

[Philip]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm certainly in no hurry to trade Mancini absent a package that reflects a team seriously valuing him.

Well, of course, but my contention is that no team will seriously value him enough to offer anything meaningful for him. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I think the best time to trade him might be after the season starts when Mc is ready to come up and after Trey has had a good start. But I trust Elias to do it at the best time. I also trust Elias To not do it at all if he thinks that’s best.

Even though as NCRaven pointed out, no one makes trades during that time?

If Mancini is traded, it'll be around the winter meetings, at the end of spring training because someone a team was counting on got hurt or isn't working out, or at the trade deadline. 

[Philip]

Just now, John Welch said:

Even though as NCRaven pointed out, no one makes trades during that time?

If Mancini is traded, it'll be around the winter meetings, at the end of spring training because someone a team was counting on got hurt or isn't working out, or at the trade deadline. 

The comment was irrelevant. Elias will trade Trey or not when he feels it’s the best time. 

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, John Welch said:

Even though as NCRaven pointed out, no one makes trades during that time?

If Mancini is traded, it'll be around the winter meetings, at the end of spring training because someone a team was counting on got hurt or isn't working out, or at the trade deadline. 

Any team considering signing Encarnacion should trade for Mancini instead.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Any team considering signing Encarnacion should trade for Mancini instead.

And Tampa is believed to be interested.

They'll have a few pitchers I'd be happy to take for Mancini. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'm kind of surprised you'd rank Mountcastle with the top 3. IMO, that's the cutoff. Maybe (like our previous discussion) with Mountcastle sort of in a category of his own.

I do agree that if the plate discipline pans out enough (doesn't have to be perfect) and his athleticism makes him an average or slightly better LFer, the bat puts him up there. I guess that's really the bottom line of what you're saying...the bat is very legit. This guy will hit. The end. 

Gotta love that.

And by the way, I think this write-up was particularly thoughtful about the player's strengths and weaknesses/unknowns. 

My tiers thus far are

Rutschman

Hall and Rodriguez

Mountcastle, multiple others who will not yet be named.

[NCRaven]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

The comment was irrelevant. Elias will trade Trey or not when he feels it’s the best time. 

Only irrelevant if you choose to ignore history and assume that Elias is able to create trades out of thin air.  It takes another GM to make a trade, not just Elias.  Most teams have set their roster and are waiting to see what they have in house before making trades.  Very few major trades (and for the Orioles, trading Mancini would be major) are made that early in the season.  If Mancini isn't traded by the start of the season, I very much doubt he'll be traded before the weeks approaching the trade deadline.

[VaBird1]

Does the team have any kind of advanced defensive data (similar to statcast) that they use to evaluate defense?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Well I do think it’s stupid to move Trey while keeping Davis. No one disagrees with that.

It depends what we can get for Mancini.   If the return is good, it’s not stupid.    And on the other hand, keeping Davis is highly questionable no matter what we do with Mancini.   Note that I said “highly questionable” rather than stupid.    That’s because we all know there are issues at play other than who would add the most value to our 2020 roster.    And, because I’m polite.   

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It depends what we can get for Mancini.   If the return is good, it’s not stupid.    And on the other hand, keeping Davis is highly questionable no matter what we do with Mancini.   Note that I said “highly questionable” rather than stupid.    That’s because we all know there are issues at play other than who would add the most value to our 2020 roster.    And, because I’m polite.   

That is why it counts as stupid.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is why it counts as stupid.

Not necessarily.    The team is going nowhere this year with or without Davis.    Let’s say the team believes that there’s a 10-20% chance that if they wait him out this year, Davis eventually will quit or agree to a buyout.   You could argue that’s enough of a chance to warrant keeping him on the roster.
 

Now, do I know that’s what they’re thinking?   No.    Do I think that’s what they’re thinking?    Not really, but I don’t know.   Do I think the chances of Davis quitting or asking for a buyout are 10-20%?   I doubt it, though again, I don’t know or really have any good basis to judge it.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not necessarily.    The team is going nowhere this year with or without Davis.    Let’s say the team believes that there’s a 10-20% chance that if they wait him out this year, Davis eventually will quit or agree to a buyout.   You could argue that’s enough of a chance to warrant keeping him on the roster.
 

Now, do I know that’s what they’re thinking?   No.    Do I think that’s what they’re thinking?    Not really, but I don’t know.   Do I think the chances of Davis quitting or asking for a buyout are 10-20%?   I doubt it, though again, I don’t know or really have any good basis to judge it.    

I think that is foolish.  I think that if they were going for that they should have benched him for months at a time last season.  I don't see why he'd quit now if he made it though the last two years.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think that is foolish.  I think that if they were going for that they should have benched him for months at a time last season.  I don't see why he'd quit now if he made it though the last two years.

 

Personally I would have cut Davis before the all star break last year.   But I’m slow to brand people who think differently than me as stupid.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Personally I would have cut Davis before the all star break last year.   But I’m slow to brand people who think differently than me as stupid.   

For me it depends on the topic.

Also I'm not calling any person stupid, merely a decision.  Not the same thing at all.