2019 #4 Prospect: Ryan Mountcastle - LF/1B

[weams]

20 hours ago, Philip said:

It is far better to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic, I will be very happy if He shows that my pessimism is unwarranted. That would suit me just fine.

It's important to know when you are simply desiring a positive outcome, or expecting it based on facts.

[weams]

As I have said before for many folks who are overly negative, it's no way to live your short life. Having hope can bring joy when none is present. Having fear is always a dark corner. 

[Number5]

20 hours ago, Philip said:

It is far better to be overly pessimistic than overly optimistic, 

[Frobby]

I don’t try to be optimistic or pessimistic.    I try to be as objective as it’s possible for me to be.    I do have a slight tendency towards optimism unless there are contrary indications.    

[weams]

9 minutes ago, Number5 said:

It's one thing to be pessimistic. It's another to harsh everyone's mellow for fun. 

[weams]

Just now, Frobby said:

I don’t try to be optimistic or pessimistic.    I try to be as objective as it’s possible for me to be.    I do have a slight tendency towards optimism unless there are contrary indications.    

As a barrister, that is good way for you to be. 

[Philip]

49 minutes ago, weams said:

No it isn't. Ask anyone who has succeeded. 

I personally tend to be optimistic, it’s in my nature. When it comes to baseball, I tend to be a little bit more cautious. 

[Philip]

45 minutes ago, weams said:

As I have said before for many folks who are overly negative, it's no way to live your short life. Having hope can bring joy when none is present. Having fear is always a dark corner. 

 Oh I agree completely, as I said in my other comment just now. I am a fundamentally optimistic person. I am not expecting Mountcastle to be bad with the bat, I am expecting him to be bad with the glove, and the only question is whether he will be better or worse than expected, and whether his position, whatever it is, is not such that it cancels out his offensive production.

Like Frobby, I am neither blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic, I look at the available facts and I do my best to interpret them in as encouraging a way as possible.

[weams]

10 minutes ago, Philip said:

 Oh I agree completely, as I said in my other comment just now. I am a fundamentally optimistic person. I am not expecting Mountcastle to be bad with the bat, I am expecting him to be bad with the glove, and the only question is whether he will be better or worse than expected, and whether his position, whatever it is, is not such that it cancels out his offensive production.

Like Frobby, I am neither blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic, I look at the available facts and I do my best to interpret them in as encouraging a way as possible.

I believe that.

[AnythingO's]

So the jury is out on Mountcastle, we expect him to hit but the glove is a work in progress. What other failed 3B converted to COF comps are out there? Would Alex Gordon be a good outcome with Monty having more bat and less glove? 

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

So the jury is out on Mountcastle, we expect him to hit but the glove is a work in progress. What other failed 3B converted to COF comps are out there? Would Alex Gordon be a good outcome with Monty having more bat and less glove? 

That would be awesome.    Of course, it’s easy to have “less glove” than Gordon in LF, who’s a 7-time Gold Glove winner and +114 Rdrs, +129 Rtot in LF in his career. I’d be satisfied if Mountcastle is exactly average defensively.    

[Luke-OH]

The most similar current player is probably Nick Castellanos. Not that Castellanos would be a good outcome for Mountcastle, if he was that bad defensively (which I don’t think he will be), that’d be like a 40th percentile outcome.

[24fps]

22 hours ago, weams said:

It's one thing to be pessimistic. It's another to harsh everyone's mellow for fun. 

Amen.  Sadly it's become the most popular internet sport by far.

 

[Ridgway22]

Just for fun, looked up the last 40 winners of the International League MVP, which Mountcastle won at age 22. There has only been one other 22 year old to win, Johnny Peralta in 2004. (I just subtracted their birth year from the year they won the award). Peralta went on to be worth 31.7 WAR.

The top careers (and obviously some are in progress, not yet complete, etc)

Jim Thome 1993, age 23 (72.9 WAR)
Brett Butler 1981, age 24 (49.7)
Johnny Peralta 2004, age 22 (31.7)
Shane Victorino 2005, age 25 (31.6)

• None of the other 36 winners exceeded 15.3 WAR
• 16 players (40%) had 0 WAR or less for their careers
• 9 players (23%) went on to have 10+ WAR

Average career WAR of winners, by age the year they won:

• Age 22: 15.9
• Age 23: 5.8
• Age 24: 11.0
• Age 25: 9.0
• Age 26:  4.6
• Age 27:  -0.6
• Age 28: -0.8
• Age 29: 0.1
• Age 30: -0.3

 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Ridgway22 said:

Just for fun, looked up the last 40 winners of the International League MVP, which Mountcastle won at age 22. There has only been one other 22 year old to win, Johnny Peralta in 2004. (I just subtracted their birth year from the year they won the award). Peralta went on to be worth 31.7 WAR.

The top careers (and obviously some are in progress, not yet complete, etc)

Jim Thome 1993, age 23 (72.9 WAR)
Brett Butler 1981, age 24 (49.7)
Johnny Peralta 2004, age 22 (31.7)
Shane Victorino 2005, age 25 (31.6)

• None of the other 36 winners exceeded 15.3 WAR
• 16 players (40%) had 0 WAR or less for their careers
• 9 players (23%) went on to have 10+ WAR

Average career WAR of winners, by age the year they won:

• Age 22: 15.9
• Age 23: 5.8
• Age 24: 11.0
• Age 25: 9.0
• Age 26:  4.6
• Age 27:  -0.6
• Age 28: -0.8
• Age 29: 0.1
• Age 30: -0.3

 

 

 

Very nice research.   Not too surprising that the younger MVP’s have the better major league careers.