Calling Elias incompetent is unfair

[Roll Tide]

26 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Let me just twist your idea a bit.

I'd love to keep Villar but not at $10.4M. I think the market has spoken about that. If he couldn't be traded last July, and can't now.....so far...I don't think it's a good gamble to believe he could be next July at $10.4M.

He's not a long term asset, and at $10.4, he doesn't have trade value. 

Elias had chances to get Villar at less than $10.4 million.  He could've extended him last off season. He could've offered a compromise and maybe he wants to stay. He could've offered 7 million and agreed to split the difference.

Perhaps this season when a team loses a guy to injury his value would jump.

I think its fine to look this and assume. But there are variables that could change things. I think 10.4 is the worst case scenario.

[Roll Tide]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Word is they have trade partners for Bundy.

I firmly believe that at the last two deadlines and this offseason teams have tried to trade Villar and have seen very little interest.  I wouldn't be shocked to find out he was quietly shopped last offseason.

But ... Maybe they had trade partners for Villar. Just not at the asking price??? According to many here Bundy has little or no value.

[drjohnnyfeva]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He played in156 games in 2016.

I must have erased that out of my post.  That was the only other year he had full time duty.  His output was similar to this year's, not quite as good, and he was never able to solidify an everyday roll until this year.  And that is perhaps as much due to us having no one else to give a go in that position.  I guess the point is, I'm underwhelmed given some of his past chances and am not on the bandwagon with simply shelling out 10+Million to see what happens.  I've got no problem walking away.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Elias had chances to get Villar at less than $10.4 million.  He could've extended him last off season. He could've offered a compromise and maybe he wants to stay. He could've offered 7 million and agreed to split the difference.

Perhaps this season when a team loses a guy to injury his value would jump.

I think its fine to look this and assume. But there are variables that could change things. I think 10.4 is the worst case scenario.

Maybe every bit of your post is accurate. But I can't be sure of it. You know how some agents are...just intent on getting the most for their client.

And I think your idea of "when some team loses their guy" is a good one because chances are high it'll happen to someone. 

Just my opinion but I think the projected arb figure killed everything. Look at it this way. If Villar wasn't with the O's last year, would we pay him $10.4 for this year? 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But ... Maybe they had trade partners for Villar. Just not at the asking price??? According to many here Bundy has little or no value.

You won't convince me that Elias was trying to sell high on Villar and turned down a reasonable return, not without evidence we are not likely to see.  Look what he accepted back for dumping Cashner's contract.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Maybe every bit of your post is accurate. But I can't be sure of it. You know how some agents are...just intent on getting the most for their client.

And I think your idea of "when some team loses their guy" is a good one because chances are high it'll happen to someone. 

Just my opinion but I think the projected arb figure killed everything. Look at it this way. If Villar wasn't with the O's last year, would we pay him $10.4 for this year? 

This team wouldn’t pay 1 million for Villar if he weren’t on the team last season .  Which is the saddest thing.

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Maybe every bit of your post is accurate. But I can't be sure of it. You know how some agents are...just intent on getting the most for their client.

And I think your idea of "when some team loses their guy" is a good one because chances are high it'll happen to someone. 

Just my opinion but I think the projected arb figure killed everything. Look at it this way. If Villar wasn't with the O's last year, would we pay him $10.4 for this year? 

Absolutely not and apparently no other team is willing to either. 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, atomic said:

This team wouldn’t pay 1 million for Villar if he weren’t on the team last season .  Which is the saddest thing.

Exactly. Which means 2 things: you get what you can for him, and so far, that hasn't worked but still might by 1:00 Monday............and............if you can't trade him, you don't bring him back.

[7Mo]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Absolutely not and apparently no other team is willing to either. 

Exactly, yet people are furious that we haven't traded him.

I just can't believe Elias has turned down any reasonable offer. 

[wildbillhiccup]

11 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Elias had chances to get Villar at less than $10.4 million.  He could've extended him last off season. He could've offered a compromise and maybe he wants to stay. He could've offered 7 million and agreed to split the difference.

Perhaps this season when a team loses a guy to injury his value would jump.

I think its fine to look this and assume. But there are variables that could change things. I think 10.4 is the worst case scenario.

So now we're going to play the hindsight game huh? He should have extended Villar last year just after he started and was still getting acclimated? Should he have cured cancer and ended world hunger too? Why stop there, maybe Elias should have reversed global warming too. 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You won't convince me that Elias was trying to sell high on Villar and turned down a reasonable return, not without evidence we are not likely to see.  Look what he accepted back for dumping Cashner's contract.

Agreed ... but some have speculated that this is a play to up the ante and time frame. A stupid risk imo ....But if it works then we can be pleasantly surprised.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Maybe every bit of your post is accurate. But I can't be sure of it. You know how some agents are...just intent on getting the most for their client.

And I think your idea of "when some team loses their guy" is a good one because chances are high it'll happen to someone. 

Just my opinion but I think the projected arb figure killed everything. Look at it this way. If Villar wasn't with the O's last year, would we pay him $10.4 for this year? 

He produced 4 WAR 

Quote

While opinions differ, FanGraphs, in particular, generally values free agents at $9 million per WAR. However, is one win at the major league level actually worth $9 million to the organization?

According to WAR he's worth considerably more

https://onsideview.com/us-sports/mlb/win-really-worth-baseball/

 

He's not if you are inclined to believe he's more likely to produce another stinker (.1 WAR) as opposed to being somewhere between 2.7 and 4.0. At his age I suspect the later is more likely.

[7Mo]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Agreed ... but some have speculated that this is a play to up the ante and time frame. A stupid risk imo ....But if it works then we can be pleasantly surprised.

You say it's a stupid risk but what if Elias knew he had 2 or more teams pretty interested?

If he waits, or lets the other teams continue to slow play him, he's gotta tender and then deal with whatever the arb figure winds up being.

If he outrights, he forces their hand.

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Agreed ... but some have speculated that this is a play to up the ante and time frame. A stupid risk imo ....But if it works then we can be pleasantly surprised.

I'll admit that is is possible he turned down more at the deadline that he can get now.  I just don't think he turned down anything that would actually aid the rebuild in a meaningful way.

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

He produced 4 WAR 

 

Absolutely he did. And he's projected at 1.8 WAR.

But no matter. I can say all day what my house is worth. But what's the true value?

What someone will pay for it.