What do 2B/SS get paid?

[Frobby]

In an effort to shed some light on what Jonathan Villar might get in arbitration or as a free agent, I had a look at what every player who qualified or came close at 2B/SS got paid in 2019, plus a few extras who got paid a lot but played little due to injuries.   I counted up 64 such players other than Villar, about two for every team, as you would expect.    There are a couple of strays on the list who played a good bit of 2B/SS but had their primary positions elsewhere.

Of the 62 players, their salaries break down like this:

$10 mm+: 13 players

$5-9.99 mm: 12 players

$1-4.99 mm: 17 players

Under $1 mm: 22 players

Here are the details on the 25 players who earned more than $5 mm, plus aother 11 players who earned less but either (1) are under long term deals that eventually will pay them more than $5 mm in a single season, or (2) earned a healthy salary in arb-3 in a previous season.

1.   Robinson Cano, $24 mm.   Cano started 98 games at 2B last year and earned 0.3 rWAR; he's earned 7.0 rWAR over the last 3 years.    Cano was a super-2 when he was with the Yankees, and earned $9 mm in his super-4 season and $10 mm in his super-5 season.

2.  Elvis Andrus, $15.3 mm.   Andrus started 146 games at SS last year and earned 1.9 rWAR; he's earned 8.1 rWAR over the last 3 years.   Andrus signed an 8-year deal in 2015 that paid him $6.5 mm in his arb-3 season.

3.  Brandon Crawford, $15.2 mm.   Crawford startred 137 games at SS last year and earned 0.6 rWAR; he's earned 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Crawford signed a 6-year deal in 2016 that paid him $8.2 mm in arb-3.

4.  Jean Segura, $14.9 mm.   Segura started 141 games at SS last year and earned 1.3 rWAR; he's earned 9.0 rWAR over the last 3 seasons.   Segura signed a 5-year deal in 2018 that paid him $9.6 mm in arb-3.   

5.  Jason Kipnis, $14.7 mm.  Kipnis started 117 games at 2B last year and earned 0.5 rWAR; he's earned 2.5 rWAR the last 3 years.   Kipnis signed a 6-year deal after his first full year in the majors that paid him $9.2 mm in arb-3.

6.  Dee Gordon, $13.3 mm.   Gordon started 115 games at 2B and 2 at SS last year and earned 0.4 rWAR; he's earned 4.4 rWAR over the last 3 years.   Gordon was a super-2 who signed a 6-year deal before his first year of arbitration eligibility that paid him $7.8 mm as a super-4 and $10.8 mm as a super-5.  

7.  Andrelton Simmons, $13.0 mm.    Simmons started 98 games at SS last year and earned 2.1 rWAR; he's earned 15.3 rWAR over the last 3 seasons.    Simmons signed a 7-year deal before the 2014 season (after his first full season) that paid him $8 mm in his super-4 season and $11 mm in his super-5 season.    At the time he signed his deal, it would not have been clear whether his service time would earn him super-2 status or not (he had 1 year, 125 days when he signed; 2 years, 133 days ended up being the cutoff for super-2).

8.  D.J. LeMahieu, $12.0 mm.   LeMahieu started 66 games at 2B last year (he also played a lot at 1B and 3B) and earned 6.0 rWAR; he's earned 11.8 rWAR in his last 3 seasons.   LeMahieu was playing the first year of a 2-year, $24 mm free agent deal.   He earned $8.5 mm in his arb-3 season with the Rockies.

9.  Xander Bogaerts, $12.0 mm.    Bogaerts started 153 games at SS last year and earned 5.2 rWAR; he's earned 11.2 rWAR the last 3 years.    Bogaerts signed a 6-year, $120 mm deal that starts next year; he was in arb-3 last year when he earned $12 mm last season.

10. Ben Zobrist, $12.0 mm.    Zobrist started 23 games at 2B in 2019 and scattered games elsewhere accruing -0.1 rWAR; in the past 3 years he totaled 3.6 rWAR.    Back in his Tampa days he signed a 4-year deal that bought out his arb years and gave the Rays options on 2 FA years; his arb 3 season cost $5.5 mm.

11.  Starlin Castro, $11.9 mm.   Castro started 115 games at 2B and 2 at SS last year and earned 0.8 rWAR, 6.0 rWAR the last 3 years.    Castro signed a 7-year deal before the 2013 season, in which he would have been a super-2.    He was paid $6.9 mm for his super-4 season and $7.9 mm for super-5.

12.   Didi Gregorius, $11.9 mm.    Gregorius started 78 games at SS last year while missing the first half with an injury, and earned 0.6 rWAR; he's earned 8.5 rWAR the last 3 years.    His salary was as a super-5 and he previously earned $8.25 mm as a super-4.

13.  Francisco Lindor, $10.9 mm.   Lindor started 137 games at SS and earned 4.7 rWAR; he's earned 18.1 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    His 2019 salary was earned in arb-1, after a 7.9 rWAR season that placed him 6th in the MVP voting (after being 5th the year before that).

14.  Scooter Gennett, $9.775 mm.   Gennett started 23 games at 2B in 2019 and amassed -0.8 rWAR; he earned 5.8 rWAR the past 3 seasons.   His salary last year was in arb-3, after seasons of 2.4 and 4.2 rWAR.

15.  Jose Altuve, $9.5 mm.   Altuve started 119 games at 2B and earned 3.7 rWAR; he's earned 16.9 rWAR the last 3 seasons.   Altuve previously had signed a very team-friendly deal after his first full season, that paid him $4.5 mm in arb-3 and gave the Astros options through 2019 at very low prices.    The Astros signed Altuve to a further extension after his 2017 MVP season that increased his 2018-19 salaries modestly but starts paying him $29 mm per year next season.

16.  Brian Dozier, $9.0 mm.   Dozier started 114 games at 2B and earned 0.7 rWAR; he's earned 6.1 rWAR the last 3 years.    Dozier earned his deal as a free agent following a 1.0 rWAR season in 2018 but had been very good the two previous seasons.    Under a prior 4 year deal signed in his last pre-arb year that bought out his arbitration-eligible seasons, he earned $9 mm in arb-3.

17.  Rougned Odor, $7.8 mm.    Odor started 137 games at 2B and earned -0.3 rWAR last year; he's earned 2.0 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    Odor signed a 6-year deal before the 2017 season (his last pre-arb season) that pays him $9.3 mm in arb-3.

18.  Cesar Hernandez, $7.75 mm.   Hernandez started 157 games at 2B in 2019 and earned 2.5 rWAR; he's earned 6.8 rWAR the last three seasons.    He was a super-4 when earning his 2019 salary and will have a 4th year of arbitration eligibility in 2020.   

19.  Jonathan Schoop, $7.5 mm.    Schoop started 110 games at 2B in 2019 and earned 1.6 rWAR; he's earned 8.3 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    He was DFA last year before what would have been his arb-3 season, and earned his 2019 salary as a free agent.

20.  Mike Moustakas, $7.0 mm.   Moustakas started 40 games at 2B though he was primarily a 3B, and he earned 3.2 rWAR; over the last 3 years he's earned 7.6 rWAR.  His $7 mm was as a free agent and he also got bough out of two option years at the send of the season for an extra $2 mm.   As an arb-3 with the Royals he earned $8.7 mm, strictly as a 3B.

21.  Kolten Wong, $6.5 mm.   Wong started 134 games at 2B and earned 4.7 rWAR in 2019; he earned 10.0 rWAR over the last 3 years.      Wong signed a 5-year contract after his second full season that bought out his arbitration years and one free agent year; the $6.5 mm he earned last season was for his arb-3 year.

22.  Marcus Semien, $5.9 mm.   Semien started 161 games at SS last year and earned 8.1 rWAR; he's earned 13.5 rWAR the last 3 years.    He's entering his arb-3 season.

23.  Javy Baez, $5.2 mm.   Baez started 128 games at SS last year and earned 4.8 rWAR; over the last 3 years he's earned 9.1 rWAR.   He was paid $5.2 mm in arb-1 following a 6.3 rWAR season in which he finished 2nd in the MVP voting.

24.  Trevor Story, $5.0 mm.    Story started 144 games at SS and earned 6.4 rWAR last year.; he's earned 14.6 rWAR over the last 3 years.  He was in arb-1 last year after earning 5.6 rWAR and finishing 8th in the MVP voting.

25.  Carlos Correa, $5.0 mm.   Correa started 75 games at SS last year and earned 2.9 rWAR; he's earned 10.6 rWAR the last 3 years.    He was in arb-1 last year after earning 1.7 rWAR in an injury-shortened 2018 season, playing 110 games.

26. Freddy Galvis, $4.0 mm.   Galvis started 27 games at 2B and 127 at SS in 2019 and earned 16 rWAR; he was worth 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Previously he earned $6.8 mm in arb-3.

27. Howie Kendrick, $4.0 mm.   Kendrick started 18 games at 2B in 2019 while mostly playing 1B and a little 3B and pinch hitting frequently, and earned 2.6 rWAR; he earned 3.8 rWAR the past 3 seasons.   In his younger days, purely as a 2B, he earned $4.5 mm in arb-3.

28. Ian Kinsler, $3.75 mm.   Kinsler started 63 games at 2B in 2019 and earned -0.3 rWAR.   In his younger days, he earned $6.2 mm in arb-3.

29. Jorge Polanco, $3.6 mm.   Polanco started 139 games at SS and earned 5.7 rWAR this year; he's earned 9.3 rWAR the last 3 years.   Polanco signed a 5-year deal after his second full season that buys out one pre-arb year, his arb years and one FA year, and has options for 2 more seasons, that pays him $5.5 mm in his arb-3 year.

30. Jose Iglesias, $2.5 mm.   Iglesias started 136 games at SS and earned 1.5 rWAR; he's been worth 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Iglesias earned $6.3 mm as an arb-3.   

31. Ketel Marte, $2.4 mm.   Marte started 45 games at 2B and 5 games at SS while starting primarily in CF, and earned 6.9 rWAR in 2019; he's earned 11.3 rWAR the last 3 years.   He signed a 5 year deal before his 1st full season, a year before he would have been a super-2, which provided for him to make $6.4 mm in his super-4 season and $8.4 mm in super-5.

32. Paul DeJong, $1.7 mm.   DeJong started 156 games at SS and earned 4.1 rWAR; he's been worth 10.6 rWAR the last 3 years.   After his rookie year, DeJong signed a 6-year deal that pays him $6.2 mm as a projected super-4 and $9.2 mm as a projected super-5.   I should add that it was unclear when he signed that deal whether he'd make the super-2 cutoff or not, so the $9.2 mm could have been for his arb-3 season, depending how the cutoff fell.   The cutoff still has not been announced, but it is reportedly expected to be very low this year (below DeJpng's 2.127). 

33. Tim Anderson, $1.4 mm.   Anderson started 122 games at SS last year and earned 4.0 rWAR; he's been worth 7.6 rWAR the last 3 season.   Anderson signed a 6-year deal after his rookie year that pays him $9.5 mm in arb-3.  

34. Whit Merrifield, $1.0 mm.    Merrifield started 76 games at 2B while also starting games at all 3 OF spots and 1B, and earned 4.0 rWAR; he's been worth 13.4 rWAR the last 3 years.   Merrifield signed a 4-year deal before his last pre-arb season that buys out his 3 arb years and gives a team option for his first FA season.   His deal is structured oddly and he's only guaranteed $2.75 mm for his arb-3 season, though he will have earned $6.75 mm in arb-2 and can earn $2 mm in incentives in arb-3.

35.  Ozzie Albies, $575 k.   Albies started 158 games at 2B last year and earned 4.8 rWAR; he's earned 9.9 rWAR in his 2 years in the majors.   He signed an extremely team-friendly 7-year deal after his rookie year, that has him making $7 mm in arb-3.

36.  David Bote, $561 k.   Bote started 28 games at 2B while playing mostly 3B in 2019, and earned2.0 rWAR; he's been worth 3.0 rWAR in his two major league seasons.   He's been signed to a 5-year deal that will pay him $5.5 mm in arb-3.

I need to run out now and don't have time to comment on conclusions from this list in great detail.    I'll just say briefly that I don't think this list supports the $10.4 mm arb-3 estimate for Villar given by MLB Trade Rumors.    I'll be interested in the conclusions others draw from this list.

[7Mo]

Thanks for all the work you put into that. Appreciate it. 

[7Mo]

Somewhat related, here's a blurb speculating about what the Red Sox might do for second.

Joe Panik just turned 29, he surely needs a fresh opportunity to prove himself, and the Red Sox just happen to have a ton of unpredictability at second base.

This isn’t a bad winter to go bargain shopping at second base. The free-agent market offers Jason Kipnis, Brian Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker, Eric Sogard, Starlin Castro, Ben Zobrist, Jonathan Schoop and – of course – Brock Holt. That level of redundancy will surely bring down prices, and some of those guys are going to sign for low, low money.

Panik is singled out here because he’s still relatively young, and he might be on the lower end of the pay scale after a couple of disappointing seasons. On the plus side, his hard-hit percentage was the best of his career last season, his line-drive percentage was basically in line with his best years in San Francisco, and his numbers did improve after he joined the Mets in August.

 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

In an effort to shed some light on what Jonathan Villar might get in arbitration or as a free agent, I had a look at what every player who qualified or came close at 2B/SS got paid in 2019, plus a few extras who got paid a lot but played little due to injuries.   I counted up 64 such players other than Villar, about two for every team, as you would expect.    There are a couple of strays on the list who played a good bit of 2B/SS but had their primary positions elsewhere.

Of the 62 players, their salaries break down like this:

$10 mm+: 13 players

$5-9.99 mm: 12 players

$1-4.99 mm: 17 players

Under $1 mm: 22 players

Here are the details on the 25 players who earned more than $5 mm, plus aother 11 players who earned less but either (1) are under long term deals that eventually will pay them more than $5 mm in a single season, or (2) earned a healthy salary in arb-3 in a previous season.

1.   Robinson Cano, $24 mm.   Cano started 98 games at 2B last year and earned 0.3 rWAR; he's earned 7.0 rWAR over the last 3 years.    Cano was a super-2 when he was with the Yankees, and earned $9 mm in his super-4 season and $10 mm in his super-5 season.

2.  Elvis Andrus, $15.3 mm.   Andrus started 146 games at SS last year and earned 1.9 rWAR; he's earned 8.1 rWAR over the last 3 years.   Andrus signed an 8-year deal in 2015 that paid him $6.5 mm in his arb-3 season.

3.  Brandon Crawford, $15.2 mm.   Crawford startred 137 games at SS last year and earned 0.6 rWAR; he's earned 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Crawford signed a 6-year deal in 2016 that paid him $8.2 mm in arb-3.

4.  Jean Segura, $14.9 mm.   Segura started 141 games at SS last year and earned 1.3 rWAR; he's earned 9.0 rWAR over the last 3 seasons.   Segura signed a 5-year deal in 2018 that paid him $9.6 mm in arb-3.   

5.  Jason Kipnis, $14.7 mm.  Kipnis started 117 games at 2B last year and earned 0.5 rWAR; he's earned 2.5 rWAR the last 3 years.   Kipnis signed a 6-year deal after his first full year in the majors that paid him $9.2 mm in arb-3.

6.  Dee Gordon, $13.3 mm.   Gordon started 115 games at 2B and 2 at SS last year and earned 0.4 rWAR; he's earned 4.4 rWAR over the last 3 years.   Gordon was a super-2 who signed a 6-year deal before his first year of arbitration eligibility that paid him $7.8 mm as a super-4 and $10.8 mm as a super-5.  

7.  Andrelton Simmons, $13.0 mm.    Simmons started 98 games at SS last year and earned 2.1 rWAR; he's earned 15.3 rWAR over the last 3 seasons.    Simmons signed a 7-year deal before the 2014 season (after his first full season) that paid him $8 mm in his super-4 season and $11 mm in his super-5 season.    At the time he signed his deal, it would not have been clear whether his service time would earn him super-2 status or not (he had 1 year, 125 days when he signed; 2 years, 133 days ended up being the cutoff for super-2).

8.  D.J. LeMahieu, $12.0 mm.   LeMahieu started 66 games at 2B last year (he also played a lot at 1B and 3B) and earned 6.0 rWAR; he's earned 11.8 rWAR in his last 3 seasons.   LeMahieu was playing the first year of a 2-year, $24 mm free agent deal.   He earned $8.5 mm in his arb-3 season with the Rockies.

9.  Xander Bogaerts, $12.0 mm.    Bogaerts started 153 games at SS last year and earned 5.2 rWAR; he's earned 11.2 rWAR the last 3 years.    Bogaerts signed a 6-year, $120 mm deal that starts next year; he was in arb-3 last year when he earned $12 mm last season.

10. Ben Zobrist, $12.0 mm.    Zobrist started 23 games at 2B in 2019 and scattered games elsewhere accruing -0.1 rWAR; in the past 3 years he totaled 3.6 rWAR.    Back in his Tampa days he signed a 4-year deal that bought out his arb years and gave the Rays options on 2 FA years; his arb 3 season cost $5.5 mm.

11.  Starlin Castro, $11.9 mm.   Castro started 115 games at 2B and 2 at SS last year and earned 0.8 rWAR, 6.0 rWAR the last 3 years.    Castro signed a 7-year deal before the 2013 season, in which he would have been a super-2.    He was paid $6.9 mm for his super-4 season and $7.9 mm for super-5.

12.   Didi Gregorius, $11.9 mm.    Gregorius started 78 games at SS last year while missing the first half with an injury, and earned 0.6 rWAR; he's earned 8.5 rWAR the last 3 years.    His salary was as a super-5 and he previously earned $8.25 mm as a super-4.

13.  Francisco Lindor, $10.9 mm.   Lindor started 137 games at SS and earned 4.7 rWAR; he's earned 18.1 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    His 2019 salary was earned in arb-1, after a 7.9 rWAR season that placed him 6th in the MVP voting (after being 5th the year before that).

14.  Scooter Gennett, $9.775 mm.   Gennett started 23 games at 2B in 2019 and amassed -0.8 rWAR; he earned 5.8 rWAR the past 3 seasons.   His salary last year was in arb-3, after seasons of 2.4 and 4.2 rWAR.

15.  Jose Altuve, $9.5 mm.   Altuve started 119 games at 2B and earned 3.7 rWAR; he's earned 16.9 rWAR the last 3 seasons.   Altuve previously had signed a very team-friendly deal after his first full season, that paid him $4.5 mm in arb-3 and gave the Astros options through 2019 at very low prices.    The Astros signed Altuve to a further extension after his 2017 MVP season that increased his 2018-19 salaries modestly but starts paying him $29 mm per year next season.

16.  Brian Dozier, $9.0 mm.   Dozier started 114 games at 2B and earned 0.7 rWAR; he's earned 6.1 rWAR the last 3 years.    Dozier earned his deal as a free agent following a 1.0 rWAR season in 2018 but had been very good the two previous seasons.    Under a prior 4 year deal signed in his last pre-arb year that bought out his arbitration-eligible seasons, he earned $9 mm in arb-3.

17.  Rougned Odor, $7.8 mm.    Odor started 137 games at 2B and earned -0.3 rWAR last year; he's earned 2.0 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    Odor signed a 6-year deal before the 2017 season (his last pre-arb season) that pays him $9.3 mm in arb-3.

18.  Cesar Hernandez, $7.75 mm.   Hernandez started 157 games at 2B in 2019 and earned 2.5 rWAR; he's earned 6.8 rWAR the last three seasons.    He was a super-4 when earning his 2019 salary and will have a 4th year of arbitration eligibility in 2020.   

19.  Jonathan Schoop, $7.5 mm.    Schoop started 110 games at 2B in 2019 and earned 1.6 rWAR; he's earned 8.3 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    He was DFA last year before what would have been his arb-3 season, and earned his 2019 salary as a free agent.

20.  Mike Moustakas, $7.0 mm.   Moustakas started 40 games at 2B though he was primarily a 3B, and he earned 3.2 rWAR; over the last 3 years he's earned 7.6 rWAR.  His $7 mm was as a free agent and he also got bough out of two option years at the send of the season for an extra $2 mm.   As an arb-3 with the Royals he earned $8.7 mm, strictly as a 3B.

21.  Kolten Wong, $6.5 mm.   Wong started 134 games at 2B and earned 4.7 rWAR in 2019; he earned 10.0 rWAR over the last 3 years.      Wong signed a 5-year contract after his second full season that bought out his arbitration years and one free agent year; the $6.5 mm he earned last season was for his arb-3 year.

22.  Marcus Semien, $5.9 mm.   Semien started 161 games at SS last year and earned 8.1 rWAR; he's earned 13.5 rWAR the last 3 years.    He's entering his arb-3 season.

23.  Javy Baez, $5.2 mm.   Baez started 128 games at SS last year and earned 4.8 rWAR; over the last 3 years he's earned 9.1 rWAR.   He was paid $5.2 mm in arb-1 following a 6.3 rWAR season in which he finished 2nd in the MVP voting.

24.  Trevor Story, $5.0 mm.    Story started 144 games at SS and earned 6.4 rWAR last year.; he's earned 14.6 rWAR over the last 3 years.  He was in arb-1 last year after earning 5.6 rWAR and finishing 8th in the MVP voting.

25.  Carlos Correa, $5.0 mm.   Correa started 75 games at SS last year and earned 2.9 rWAR; he's earned 10.6 rWAR the last 3 years.    He was in arb-1 last year after earning 1.7 rWAR in an injury-shortened 2018 season, playing 110 games.

26. Freddy Galvis, $4.0 mm.   Galvis started 27 games at 2B and 127 at SS in 2019 and earned 16 rWAR; he was worth 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Previously he earned $6.8 mm in arb-3.

27. Howie Kendrick, $4.0 mm.   Kendrick started 18 games at 2B in 2019 while mostly playing 1B and a little 3B and pinch hitting frequently, and earned 2.6 rWAR; he earned 3.8 rWAR the past 3 seasons.   In his younger days, purely as a 2B, he earned $4.5 mm in arb-3.

28. Ian Kinsler, $3.75 mm.   Kinsler started 63 games at 2B in 2019 and earned -0.3 rWAR.   In his younger days, he earned $6.2 mm in arb-3.

29. Jorge Polanco, $3.6 mm.   Polanco started 139 games at SS and earned 5.7 rWAR this year; he's earned 9.3 rWAR the last 3 years.   Polanco signed a 5-year deal after his second full season that buys out one pre-arb year, his arb years and one FA year, and has options for 2 more seasons, that pays him $5.5 mm in his arb-3 year.

30. Jose Iglesias, $2.5 mm.   Iglesias started 136 games at SS and earned 1.5 rWAR; he's been worth 5.1 rWAR the last 3 years.   Iglesias earned $6.3 mm as an arb-3.   

31. Ketel Marte, $2.4 mm.   Marte started 45 games at 2B and 5 games at SS while starting primarily in CF, and earned 6.9 rWAR in 2019; he's earned 11.3 rWAR the last 3 years.   He signed a 5 year deal before his 1st full season, a year before he would have been a super-2, which provided for him to make $6.4 mm in his super-4 season and $8.4 mm in super-5.

32. Paul DeJong, $1.7 mm.   DeJong started 156 games at SS and earned 4.1 rWAR; he's been worth 10.6 rWAR the last 3 years.   After his rookie year, DeJong signed a 6-year deal that pays him $6.2 mm as a projected super-4 and $9.2 mm as a projected super-5.   I should add that it was unclear when he signed that deal whether he'd make the super-2 cutoff or not, so the $9.2 mm could have been for his arb-3 season, depending how the cutoff fell.   The cutoff still has not been announced, but it is reportedly expected to be very low this year (below DeJpng's 2.127). 

33. Tim Anderson, $1.4 mm.   Anderson started 122 games at SS last year and earned 4.0 rWAR; he's been worth 7.6 rWAR the last 3 season.   Anderson signed a 6-year deal after his rookie year that pays him $9.5 mm in arb-3.  

34. Whit Merrifield, $1.0 mm.    Merrifield started 76 games at 2B while also starting games at all 3 OF spots and 1B, and earned 4.0 rWAR; he's been worth 13.4 rWAR the last 3 years.   Merrifield signed a 4-year deal before his last pre-arb season that buys out his 3 arb years and gives a team option for his first FA season.   His deal is structured oddly and he's only guaranteed $2.75 mm for his arb-3 season, though he will have earned $6.75 mm in arb-2 and can earn $2 mm in incentives in arb-3.

35.  Ozzie Albies, $575 k.   Albies started 158 games at 2B last year and earned 4.8 rWAR; he's earned 9.9 rWAR in his 2 years in the majors.   He signed an extremely team-friendly 7-year deal after his rookie year, that has him making $7 mm in arb-3.

36.  David Bote, $561 k.   Bote started 28 games at 2B while playing mostly 3B in 2019, and earned2.0 rWAR; he's been worth 3.0 rWAR in his two major league seasons.   He's been signed to a 5-year deal that will pay him $5.5 mm in arb-3.

I need to run out now and don't have time to comment on conclusions from this list in great detail.    I'll just say briefly that I don't think this list supports the $10.4 mm arb-3 estimate for Villar given by MLB Trade Rumors.    I'll be interested in the conclusions others draw from this list.

I want to make sure that this is annual salary you’re discussing, and not contract total?

and what is rWAR? I know b and f but not r.

Edited December 1, 2019 by Philip
Addendum

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

19.  Jonathan Schoop, $7.5 mm.    Schoop started 110 games at 2B in 2019 and earned 1.6 rWAR; he's earned 8.3 rWAR the last 3 seasons.    He was DFA last year before what would have been his arb-3 season, and earned his 2019 salary as a free agent.

I think it’s meaningful to compare Schoop and Villar. Schoop had a good year for a great club and they have let him go even though, at 7.5 mill and 8m per WAR, he offered a lot of “surplus value.” Villar had 4.0 WAR so he had enormous surplus value. But based on what? The value of 1WAR?

I think the conclusion is that 1WAR is NOT worth 8 million. It’s not even worth 2.5 million, or someone would have been happy to have Villar for one 10M season.

we are watching a market reset.

I looked through these numbers for the contracts teams regretted, and the answer is “most of them”

Short contracts at smaller values are going to be the norm.

Villar might get 1/7 like Schoop did, 2/10 or 3/12,  but no one is going to give him 10+ for a single year.

BTW this list is a great reason we should NOT extend Trey.

Edited December 1, 2019 by Philip
Addendum

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think it’s meaningful to compare Schoop and Villar. Schoop had a good year for a great club and they have let him go even though, at 7.5 mill and 8m per WAR, he offered a lot of “surplus value.” Villar had 4.0 WAR so he had enormous surplus value. But based on what? The value of 1WAR?

I think the conclusion is that 1WAR is NOT worth 8 million. It’s not even worth 2.5 million, or someone would have been happy to have Villar for one 10M season.

we are watching a market reset.

I looked through these numbers for the contracts teams regretted, and the answer is “most of them”

Short contracts at smaller values are going to be the norm.

Villar might get 1/7 like Schoop did, 2/10 or 3/12,  but no one is going to give him 10+ for a single year.

BTW this list is a great reason we should NOT extend Trey.

Schoop has produced 1.4 and 1.6 WAR the last 2 seasons.

[wildbillhiccup]

Great post and thanks for digging up all those salaries. I'd say that Villar's value is about half of LeMahieu's value. That would put his value at around $6M per season. So there's no reason the Orioles or any other team should pay him $10M. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

I think it’s meaningful to compare Schoop and Villar. Schoop had a good year for a great club and they have let him go even though, at 7.5 mill and 8m per WAR, he offered a lot of “surplus value.” Villar had 4.0 WAR so he had enormous surplus value. But based on what? The value of 1WAR?

I think the conclusion is that 1WAR is NOT worth 8 million. It’s not even worth 2.5 million, or someone would have been happy to have Villar for one 10M season.

we are watching a market reset.

I think your conclusion is flawed.   Teams don’t pay for past performance, they pay for expected future performance.   It’s pretty obvious to me that teams don’t think 4 WAR is going to be Villar’s future performance, or they’d be lining up at the door to acquire him.     

That said, I mentioned yesterday that $8 mm per WAR is an oversimplified formula.   
 

3 hours ago, Philip said:

I want to make sure that this is annual salary you’re discussing, and not contract total?

and what is rWAR? I know b and f but not r.

Yes, annual salary.   rWAR is the same as bWAR.   Both refer to the version of WAR published by Baseball-Reference.com.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Great post and thanks for digging up all those salaries. I'd say that Villar's value is about half of LeMahieu's value. That would put his value at around $6M per season. So there's no reason the Orioles or any other team should pay him $10M. 

I think if Schoop got $7.5 mm last year after a 1.4 rWAR season, Villar couldn’t possibly be worth less than that after a 4.0 rWAR season.   I realize that teams take into account more than one year’s performance, but I still think Villar has to be worth what Schoop was on the open market.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think if Schoop got $7.5 mm last year after a 1.4 rWAR season, Villar couldn’t possibly be worth less than that after a 4.0 rWAR season.   I realize that teams take into account more than one year’s performance, but I still think Villar has to be worth what Schoop was on the open market.   

I'm interested in seeing what he gets.  Twins paid a premium with Schoop since they signed him early. 

[jerios55]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think if Schoop got $7.5 mm last year after a 1.4 rWAR season, Villar couldn’t possibly be worth less than that after a 4.0 rWAR season.   I realize that teams take into account more than one year’s performance, but I still think Villar has to be worth what Schoop was on the open market.   

The number of jobs vs available players perhaps, but I could see 7.5 as a fair conversation starting point.

[HowAboutThat]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Teams don’t pay for past performance, they pay for expected future performance.  

I don’t disagree with that, at least not completely, but if that is true, then why do teams constantly give a 32-year-old a six-year contract? They can’t possibly expect him to produce at 37 or 38 what he produced at the age of 30.

And they should not-although they do- Expect the next two or three years to compensate for the decline, especially when the declining future will cost more than the productive past. It doesn’t make sense.

When I said that the market is experiencing a reset, that’s what I meant. Villar isn’t worth ten million because no one thinks 1WAR is worth 8 million.

The end of the current CBA is also a factor, because we don’t know what is going to happen, although we do know that the union is blessed with neither leadership nor vision and the owners will probably win again.

But a serious change in the free agent system is necessary.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with that, at least not completely, but if that is true, then why do teams constantly give a 32-year-old a six-year contract? They can’t possibly expect him to produce at 37 or 38 what he produced at the age of 30.

And they should not-although they do- Expect the next two or three years to compensate for the decline, especially when the declining future will cost more than the productive past. It doesn’t make sense.

When I said that the market is experiencing a reset, that’s what I meant. Villar isn’t worth ten million because no one thinks 1WAR is worth 8 million.

The end of the current CBA is also a factor, because we don’t know what is going to happen, although we do know that the union is blessed with neither leadership nor vision and the owners will probably win again.

But a serious change in the free agent system is necessary.

It isn't that common these days.

[Frobby]

By the way, of the 36  players I listed, the following are free agents: Castro, Dozier, Gennett, Kipnis, Schoop, Zobrist, Gregorius and Iglesias.   Cot’s lists another 23 players who are free agents at those positions.     I think the large supply with not that many openings is a big reason the demand for Villar appears soft.   

[HowAboutThat]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think if Schoop got $7.5 mm last year after a 1.4 rWAR season, Villar couldn’t possibly be worth less than that after a 4.0 rWAR season.   I realize that teams take into account more than one year’s performance, but I still think Villar has to be worth what Schoop was on the open market.   

 That will be a fascinating thing to learn. I personally do not think he will get a $10 million annual salary which by definition means he’s not worth his arbitration projection, which vindicates Mike’s move, at least partially. 

But what he gets, and where he ranks among FA second basemen, will be quite interesting.

plus, we can all be grateful to have something to yak about.

thanks mike!