Villar Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Do you really believe Elias was offered anything of significant value (a top ten prospect) at the deadline?

I doubt he was offered anything in the top 25.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

A miscalculation IF your assumption is correct. However, common sense was that the deadline was the high point to trade Villar.  You assume Elias is dumb and incompetent.   I don't. 

So I've given you statements and actions by Elias as my reasons for my conclusions. Offer anything at all that supports your position.

Additionally, dont put words in my mouth! I never said either one of those things! I think he is an analytics and statistical guy and that is his strong suit. I think he's made a few rookie mistakes and hopefully has learned from them!

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Thank you. 

Nobody has said that so quit acting like you are being redeemed

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

So I've given you statements and actions by Elias as my reasons for my conclusions. Offer anything at all that supports your position.

Additionally, dont put words in my mouth! I never said either one of those things! I think he is an analytics and statistical guy and that is his strong suit. I think he's made a few rookie mistakes and hopefully has learned from them!

You don't think he's a scouting guy?

[SteveA]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Between Villar and Cashner the Orioles saved about $15M.  If they had not traded them they would have been out $15M for about 3-4 wins on a 50-something win team.  The reason neither brought back high-caliber prospects was because they had a $15M bill attached to them that the accepting teams now have to pay.

I understand the position that all of that money just disappears into the ether, that the Angelos family gets to light cigars with it.  Maybe that's true.  But I like to think that Mike Elias gets to add at least some of that to the account they're using to upgrade the franchise in 100 ways, mostly behind the scenes.

Here's a funny thing... the Marlins acquired Villar and his presumptive $10M salary.  Currently they have two players making over MLB minimum.  Villar and Wei Yin Chen, who will make $22M in 2020.  Barring any future expensive moves they're going to have about a $50M payroll, with $32M of that going to Chen and Villar.  I don't know what sense that makes, unless someone whispered in Jeter's ear that it's unbecoming to have a 57-win team with a new taxpayer funded stadium and $209M in shared MLB revenues and a $30M payroll.

They did release Chen a few weeks ago.   However if your point is they are still on the hook for paying him, then you are probably correct.

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Nobody has said that so quit acting like you are being redeemed

Oh come on. Your rant started with:

incompetent

Buffoon

a bigger idiot than I thought

You've only softened in terms of saying he doesn't know what he's doing, doesn't know how to make a trade, said more than he should have, he blew the trade market, and so on.

And you've repeated the same message not less than 50 times in the last week. Please, please give it a rest. 

[Roll Tide]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Do you really believe Elias was offered anything of significant value (a top ten prospect) at the deadline?

Probably nothing close to the top 100. But many organizations have guys in the 5-10 range that don't meet that criteria. A couple of years ago the Orioles passed on a deal for Britton at the deadline that included Colin Moran. (I know Elias wasn't the GM). Moran was blocked, had some type of injury he was coming off, and he was 25 I believe.

That is the deal I think we should have made for Brittion! But I think Elias would have passed on that deal as well considering how far we are away from contending. So perhaps he was and it was not the right fit based on his long term goal.

The only thing strongly suspect is it was more than we got from the Marlins.

 

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I doubt he was offered anything in the top 25.

Another kernel of Wisdom

 

Sorry I couldn't resist ..... Seems kind of pointless to continue ?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 minute ago, SteveA said:

They did release Chen a few weeks ago.   However if your point is they are still on the hook for paying him, then you are probably correct.

I didn't know that.  But yea, they are still paying him $22M this year.  That was a terrible contract.  $80M for 13 wins (and about -2 WAR) over five years.

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't think he's a scouting guy?

I'm pretty sure there current advertisements for scouts requires no experience and a BS degree....Most likely in statitics, economics or something similar.

I'm not saying he can't judge talent ...I'm saying he made a couple rookie GM mistakes! There is a huge difference

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

My justification ...... Elias announces in a Baltimore Sun interview that he is not going to tender him a contract that costs the Orioles $10 million since they are losing and in a rebuild. At that very point he's showed the other GMs his plan. A rival GM could sit back and wait for the nontender deadline and get him for just money.

Do you have a link to where Elias said this?    I don’t remember seeing it.    All I saw that Elias said was this:

“There’s seven guys and they’re good players, but there is money involved,” Elias said. “You’ve got to take it into consideration and it may influence the decision whether or not to tender a contract in the first place. But also your threshold for trading those guys if there’s interest elsewhere. That’s part of running any business and it’s part of reality.

“Money and budgets are a huge part of our business.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/winning-stays-on-back-burner-as-orioles-continue-transformation.html

I don’t interpret that as tipping anything.

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Oh come on. Your rant started with:

incompetent

Buffoon

a bigger idiot than I thought

You've only softened in terms of saying he doesn't know what he's doing, doesn't know how to make a trade, said more than he should have, he blew the trade market, and so on.

And you've repeated the same message not less than 50 times in the last week. Please, please give it a rest. 

I did the 1st three things when it was reported that he was placed on OUTRIGHT WAIVERS. As it turns out he did not do that! Its very unusual that such a tenured reporter would make that mistake.

And by my own admission only stopped when Tony-OH reminded me of the board rules!

I am convinced  he hurt Villar's value with the Sun statement! I am guy that has negotiated contracts in my career and I'm 49 in case your wondering. I have negotiated contracts in the intellectual property arena (music), purchased businesses, and have 20+ years of B2B sales experience. I know when a adversary in a contract negotiation makes a mistake and how to exploit it.

So when I tell you my opinion it is based on my vast experiences with that type of work. I could be wrong about what was offered at the trade deadline. One can only guess unless a reporter offered up insider information. Which obviously did not happen,

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I did the 1st three things when it was reported that he was placed on OUTRIGHT WAIVERS. As it turns out he did not do that! Its very unusual that such a tenured reporter would make that mistake.

And by my own admission only stopped when Tony-OH reminded me of the board rules!

I am convinced  he hurt Villar's value with the Sun statement! I am guy that has negotiated contracts in my career and I'm 49 in case your wondering. I have negotiated contracts in the intellectual property arena (music), purchased businesses, and have 20+ years of B2B sales experience. I know when a adversary in a contract negotiation makes a mistake and how to exploit it.

So when I tell you my opinion it is based on my vast experiences with that type of work. I could be wrong about what was offered at the trade deadline. One can only guess unless a reporter offered up insider information. Which obviously did not happen,

Maybe I should clarify. Let me be sure I have this right.

You're saying that immediately after the trade deadline, in an interview with the Sun, Elias said he's not going to tender Villar. Correct?

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Do you have a link to where Elias said this?    I don’t remember seeing it.    All I saw that Elias said was this:

“There’s seven guys and they’re good players, but there is money involved,” Elias said. “You’ve got to take it into consideration and it may influence the decision whether or not to tender a contract in the first place. But also your threshold for trading those guys if there’s interest elsewhere. That’s part of running any business and it’s part of reality.

“Money and budgets are a huge part of our business.”

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/11/winning-stays-on-back-burner-as-orioles-continue-transformation.html

I don’t interpret that as tipping anything.

 

Someone else quoted an article ...I can try to look back in the thread @weamsclosed for it.

 

 

Here are the interviews from the Sun paper after the deadline that I was mentioning

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-mike-elias-trade-deadline-20190802-w5mhsxyiojenbpyajrplgob47e-story.html

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-trade-deadline-mike-elias-20190802-ic62bmvsyrgnllilgbdvoxyqvy-story.html

Quote

The trade deadline came and went Wednesday afternoon without the Orioles moving a player from the major league roster, a decision executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said was based partly on the organization having no players it felt required to deal.

 

Cashner, though, was due to be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Orioles’ only other pending free agent is the injured Mark Trumbo. Villar is their only player beyond Trumbo whose not under team control after 2020.

 

Quote

“We weren’t really pressured to move anyone right now because these guys who we have on the team are under control,” Elias said Thursday. “We are rebuilding and we’re at the beginning stage of that process, so any time we can take present value and convert it into future value, especially more future value, that’s gonna be attractive to us, and we just never felt like we got to that point in the equation.

 

So he basically wasn't considering nontendering Villar at that time or there would have been additional motivation to get a deal done,

 

Quote

“I think there were some moments where it looked like something might happen, but we didn’t get close in the sense of exchanging medical files or anything like that,” he said. “I’ve seen closer calls than what we had. We were extremely active both in terms of our preparation but also the levels of communication, but just did not end up pulling the trigger on anything that we felt was the right thing to do.”

 

So there were conversations that looked like they might happen. Do you still think he was being offered less than a 14 round fringe guy from Pepperdine? I don't..... Monday's trade was out of desperation to get anything at all!

 

Quote

“With any player, you have to gauge the different junctures where it might make more sense, if you are gonna move a guy, when to do that, and the trade deadline is just one opportunity for that,” Elias said. “Of course, there’s also the option of keeping these players on the team and growing with them and helping us win games.”

Quote

“We like these players,” Elias said. “They’re here. They’re young, too, and having them around is great. I value these guys, and we’re not gonna just trade them to trade them and say we traded guys and got a couple of names if we didn’t really believe in the names, if our scouting department didn’t believe in them. That can be kind of a quick high to get somebody who’s No. 17 on the MLB.com [organizational prospect] list, but if you don’t really believe that it’s for real, it’s not the right move. We’re gonna value these guys properly, and do the right thing by the organization.

 

 

Quote

Although teams made offers for the Orioles’ major league players, Elias said the offers didn’t include impact talent worth adding to that system at the cost of one of the organization’s major league pieces.

I added this for everyone to see....But based on the next quote ...If he were offered a blocked 26 year old would he have taken him?

 

Quote

The types of guys that we’re looking for are the types of guys people don’t like giving up these days, and that’s young players with maybe some more variability or risk ahead of them, but also more upside. It’s more common to get offers with guys that are on the 40-man roster already, or need to be protected prior to the Rule 5 draft, and things like that.

In terms of the Cashner trade, we had options like that, too, but we felt it made more sense for us to go as young as possible, even if we’re inviting much more risk, just to have some more upside. That was the kind of thing that we were looking for with these guys, too, because these are valuable players, and we have them for a couple of years at a minimum.

TO me this statement says it all! If he was offered blocked guys or Rule 5 eligible he passed passed on this statement

 

Quote

I want this team to win as many games as it possibly can. I want to pick as low in the draft as possible. That’s a good thing. We are not running around trying to stack up No. 1 picks. Now, we’re going to do our best to hit on the picks that we have, and it’s very likely as of right now that we’re going to have a very high pick next year, and probably the year after that. And we’re going to do our best with those. But that is not any part of our strategy, and in a lot of ways, sometimes picking No. 1 can be difficult in a year when there’s not a clear No. 1 because you feel a little boxed in with your options.

 

I'd argue that he's being less than honest! If you truly are trying to win as many as possible .... Nontendering  or trading your best player for a guy thats not even in the other top 30 ....But more like in the 45-60 range

 

 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

Someone else quoted an article ...I can try to look back in the thread @weamsclosed for it.

 

 

 

 

I did not close a thread. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

I did not close a thread. 

A thread on Villar was closed yesterday or the day before, though probably not by you.