Going for the #1 pick

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I can’t even imagine a scenario without a playoff appearance for 7 years AND he is still the GM.  Sure, I would look at it year by year, but I would likely be pretty clear with him as to what has to happen on the field at the major league level for him to continue beyond 5 years.  I would be pretty dissatisfied with the losing by that point.   No matter the status of the organization or how “close” we might be to winning after 7 years, I would probably call for changing  horses.  But then I am pretty concrete at times.

How’s this one:

2019: 54 wins

2020: 54 wins

2021: 67 wins

2022: 77 wins 

2023: 87 wins (misses playoffs)

2024: 90 wins (misses playoffs)

2025: 93 wins (misses playoffs)

Before you say it’s unrealistic for a 93-win team to miss the playoffs, that’s exactly what happened to Cleveland this season.

I highly doubt Elias would get fired in this scenario.    

There are infinite variations on how this team will progress (or not) over the next several years, so I’m not making any blanket statements about when the O’s have to make the playoffs for Elias to keep his job.     It’s really kind of a silly conversation to be having right now anyway.     
 

 

 

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

So all they have to do is plug in the new plan, put it on auto, and go play golf.  I believe there will be decisions and details to make each and every day to execute the overall plan.    And these have to be figured out  continually until the rebuild is either successful or a failure.  It is far from certain that all aspects of the plan will go perfectly as you insinuate.  The world does not work that way.  

You are of course correct about this.    But I don’t think hoosiers was implying otherwise.    Having a plan and executing a plan are two different things.    And as Mike Tyson said, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”   

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, survivedc said:

By my count in the last 7 years only 4 teams have not been in the playoffs at least once: Phillies, Marlins, Padres and Mariners. 

I would say not making the playoffs by year 7 is a failure. The farm system is decent and improving and ownership clearly has money to spend in the right situation.

Also the White Sox.     There were a couple of other teams who only went once with a meager win total.     

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

I'm really disappointed with this offseason. I respect that Elias and Co have a "You'll come back when we win" attitude, but the level of apathy towards current fans of the Orioles is disheartening.

Throw us a bone here. It seems unnecessarily cruel to make us watch Davis, Martin, Wilkerson, Smith Jr, etc. for another year. Those 4 wouldn't make most AAA teams. At least give us some new faces to watch bumble around the diamond.

There is still plenty of time for the O’s to acquire additional players.    I’m not expecting anything big, but I’m sure at least 5 players will be added who might be good enough to challenge for an opening day roster spot.    

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

How’s this one:

2019: 54 wins

2020: 54 wins

2021: 67 wins

2022: 77 wins 

2023: 87 wins (misses playoffs)

2024: 90 wins (misses playoffs)

2025: 93 wins (misses playoffs)

Before you say it’s unrealistic for a 93-win team to miss the playoffs, that’s exactly what happened to Cleveland this season.

I highly doubt Elias would get fired in this scenario.    

There are infinite variations on how this team will progress (or not) over the next several years, so I’m not making any blanket statements about when the O’s have to make the playoffs for Elias to keep his job.     It’s really kind of a silly conversation to be having right now anyway.     
 

 

 

The team could be sold this season and the first thing new ownership could do is fire Elias and bring in their own GM.

[hoosiers]

11 hours ago, Oriole1940 said:

So all they have to do is plug in the new plan, put it on auto, and go play golf.  I believe there will be decisions and details to make each and every day to execute the overall plan.    And these have to be figured out  continually until the rebuild is either successful or a failure.  It is far from certain that all aspects of the plan will go perfectly as you insinuate.  The world does not work that way.  

"Go play golf"?  Are you serious?  Do you realize how many teams are trying to be or build to be the best in baseball?  Every …. single … one …. of …. them.  It is a matter of trying to out-scout, out-draft, out-analyze, out-develop and out-trade everyone else and that requires hard work, superior analysis and, probably, a bit of good fortune.  It most certainly does not involve 'putting it on auto and playing golf'.  

[hoosiers]

11 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Again it is pretty easy to say that 2023 is not the definitive year  and to give an open ended pass about “variables” but for me the “variable” ultimately has to be winning, so I ask again...when WOULD you expect a playoff or better team?  I am certainly not willing to make an open ended commitment to any GM without winning being the expectation even though I absolutely agree with everything done to date and with the harsh rebuild plans.   When might one want a change made if no playoff appearances are had? 

I don't think anyone here has advocated for an open ended commitment to management or suggested that the goal here is to do anything but to build a winner at the major league level.

It is just difficult IMO to put a specific time frame/year of competitiveness on this thing.  We live in a very competitive division that, entering last season, projected to host three of the top 10 teams in baseball.  The Blue Jays are on the rise and can put out a payroll north of $160M quite easily.  

I do expect a winner in Baltimore with the likelihood of playoff appearances around 2023/2024, but it is hardly a given so I would not commit to throwing out management because they simply did not build a winner by a specific year because it depends on the circumstances.

[backwardsk]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

How’s this one:

2019: 54 wins

2020: 54 wins

2021: 67 wins

2022: 77 wins 

2023: 87 wins (misses playoffs)

2024: 90 wins (misses playoffs)

2025: 93 wins (misses playoffs)

Before you say it’s unrealistic for a 93-win team to miss the playoffs, that’s exactly what happened to Cleveland this season.

I highly doubt Elias would get fired in this scenario.    

There are infinite variations on how this team will progress (or not) over the next several years, so I’m not making any blanket statements about when the O’s have to make the playoffs for Elias to keep his job.     It’s really kind of a silly conversation to be having right now anyway.     
 

 

 

After 2022 in this scenario, what are you doing with Elias’ contract?  Do you let him go into 2023 without an extension?  What they shouldn’t do, is repeat the mistake they made with Duquette and let him go into his final year without being fired or an extension.  We can’t have a guy make a bunch of win-now moves at the expense of the future and we can’t have a lame duck executive trading off assets.

[survivedc]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Also the White Sox.     There were a couple of other teams who only went once with a meager win total.     

True enough, what I hope will separate the O’s and those other teams is a clear plan on how to succeed. The Marlins and Padres didn’t seem to care until recently and many other teams have slapdash rosters. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, backwardsk said:

After 2022 in this scenario, what are you doing with Elias’ contract?  Do you let him go into 2023 without an extension?  What they shouldn’t do, is repeat the mistake they made with Duquette and let him go into his final year without being fired or an extension.  We can’t have a guy make a bunch of win-now moves at the expense of the future and we can’t have a lame duck executive trading off assets.

You are assuming Elias’ contact runs through 2023.     So far as I know, the length and terms of his contract (and Brandon Hyde’s) never have been disclosed.    But if you’re aware of a source saying otherwise, let me know.    

In the meantime, I generally agree with the idea that ownership should try to avoid having a GM operating in the last year of his contract without any assurance of returning.     
 

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I don't think anyone here has advocated for an open ended commitment to management or suggested that the goal here is to do anything but to build a winner at the major league level.

It is just difficult IMO to put a specific time frame/year of competitiveness on this thing.  We live in a very competitive division that, entering last season, projected to host three of the top 10 teams in baseball.  The Blue Jays are on the rise and can put out a payroll north of $160M quite easily.  

I do expect a winner in Baltimore with the likelihood of playoff appearances around 2023/2024, but it is hardly a given so I would not commit to throwing out management because they simply did not build a winner by a specific year because it depends on the circumstances.

I hear you....I guess I disagree.  If you are not in favor of an “open ended commitment”, then give a date when even you would agree you would support a change if he hasn’t won anything at all.  My expectation as a fan is to win, so the arguments about the division being tough etc, are no different than they ever have been in the ALEast and are irrelevant to me as a fan in judging the success of a particular GM.  His performance measure for fans is to WIN.   The primary measure I am going to use to evaluate Elias circa 2023 and on is whether the team wins something.  Period.  Others are OK with giving an indefinite, based on circumstances, is he making progress, can’t say for sure, year to year kind of deal, but not me.   

And does anybody know how long a contract Elias was given?  Can’t seem to find that anywhere.  

 

 

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

You are assuming Elias’ contact runs through 2023.     So far as I know, the length and terms of his contract (and Brandon Hyde’s) never have been disclosed.    But if you’re aware of a source saying otherwise, let me know.    

In the meantime, I generally agree with the idea that ownership should try to avoid having a GM operating in the last year of his contract without any assurance of returning.     
 

That assumption would come from what I’ve read here as I don’t read too much Orioles news that isn’t filtered through here.  But I can’t find anything.  Cots has GM/manager contract info for the other teams I sampled.  I wonder what the reasoning is behind being so vague.  While searching, I read that Elias was the highest paid first-year GM.  But I didn’t see what that salary was.

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I hear you....I guess I disagree.  If you are not in favor of an “open ended commitment”, then give a date when even you would agree you would support a change if he hasn’t won anything at all.  My expectation as a fan is to win, so the arguments about the division being tough etc, are no different than they ever have been in the ALEast and are irrelevant to me as a fan in judging the success of a particular GM.  His performance measure for fans is to WIN.   The primary measure I am going to use to evaluate Elias circa 2023 and on is whether the team wins something.  Period.  Others are OK with giving an indefinite, based on circumstances, is he making progress, can’t say for sure, year to year kind of deal, but not me.   

And does anybody know how long a contract Elias was given?  Can’t seem to find that anywhere.  

 

 

So if GrayRod and DHall both have to undergo TJ surgery and AR has a degenerative hip condition and retires in two years, are you still going to fire current management in 2023 if the major league team is not winning?  What if we still have a top 5 farm system?  What if Elias has pulled off some good trades and the team looks poised to compete in 2025? 

You will let him go based on your 2019 'line in the sand' regardless of extenuating circumstances?

[weams]

19 hours ago, orioles22 said:

I remember when we were saving to pay Tex. I don't think spending some on one-year contracts would do anything to slow our rebuilding program

I do. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

I do. 

I think that once you get past the income for ownership every dollar spent on free agents is a dollar not spent somewhere else.