Guess the 26-man opening roster

[HowAboutThat]

4 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am wondering if Velazquez can be the 4th outfielder instead of Williams.   That would save the O's from DFAing 5 guys.  Cut it to 4.   Smith could make the team for the first month until Mountcastle is ready.  Velazquez will have to see more time in the OF in the 2nd half on ST to make this happen.

 

Why go to such trouble to keep Smith? Give Williams the spot and you get good D. 

Smith just gives indigestion.

[UpstateNYfan]

3 weeks until OD....some  things should be taking shape shouldn't they?

[wildcard]

45 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why go to such trouble to keep Smith? Give Williams the spot and you get good D. 

Smith just gives indigestion.

Roster management.  Which is keeping as many players for a long season as Elias can.

 Elias knows that he is probably going to promote Mountcastle about a month after the season begins.   Smith has an option.  Williams does not.   So they would have to DFA Williams to send him down.  Elias would probably rather keep both in the organization.

Elias has limited Santander throwing which means he is probably not completely healthy.  Stewart is not recovered from his ankle injury.   Mullins may not hit.   Its not time to be DFAing Smith IMO.

Velazquez may be the backup CF.   Its a little early to know if that is true yet.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, UpstateNYfan said:

3 weeks until OD....some  things should be taking shape shouldn't they?

I think 15 spring training games is usually a good dividing line.    That’s usually enough for all the starting pitcher candidates to have had three outings, though the way the Orioles are playing it, a lot of those outings have been in sim games.    From that point, the starters are trying to go 4-5+ innings and it becomes necessary to thin the herd considerably.   So, I think by the end of the weekend things will start to shake out.   The O’s have a day off Monday and minor league position players are all due in camp by Sunday.     I’d expect a good bit of movement then.    And, I’ll be watching spring training much more seriously after the day off, as the quality of opposition will be going up thereafter.   

[HowAboutThat]

40 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Roster management.  Which is keeping as many players for a long season as Elias can.

 Elias knows that he is probably going to promote Mountcastle about a month after the season begins.   Smith has an option.  Williams does not.   So they would have to DFA Williams to send him down.  Elias would probably rather keep both in the organization.

Elias has limited Santander throwing which means he is probably not completely healthy.  Stewart is not recovered from his ankle injury.   Mullins may not hit.   Its not time to be DFAing Smith IMO.

Velazquez may be the backup CF.   Its a little early to know if that is true yet.

 

You make a valid point, but in that case a solution is just to put Santander on the disabled list.

[Camden_yardbird]

10 hours ago, Philip said:

Correct. Remember that any fool can have a good day, and still be a bad pitcher. Yes, Hess had a no-hitter into the 7th inning. He had a good day.

So?

Mike Wright had TWO good days...But he was still a very very bad pitcher.

Are you really using A, AA and AAA results as evidence Hess is a good MLB pitcher?

Quickly, let us all laugh together.

Meanwhile, I’m not sure where you got “80 innings of sub-4.00 ERA in MLB.” 

Hess has 183 career MLB innings that have produced: a 5.84 ERA, a 6.44 FIP, a 5.58 XFIP and a whopping minus .07 WAR.

so yes, he’s never been good.

No one has ever, in the history or the game of baseball, used minor league numbers as an indicator of major league success?  That's laughable?  

Fangraphs Splits - David Hess

2018 first time through the order: 40.1 innings, 3.79 ERA

2018 second time through the order: 39.1 innings, 3.43 ERA

[HowAboutThat]

10 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

No one has ever, in the history or the game of baseball, used minor league numbers as an indicator of major league success?  That's laughable?  

Fangraphs Splits - David Hess

2018 first time through the order: 40.1 innings, 3.79 ERA

2018 second time through the order: 39.1 innings, 3.43 ERA

Minor league results do not translate to major league results. History is over laden with guys who were fine in the minors but LO! Terrible in the majors.

It is laughable-and we all laugh- to suggest, as you did, that A ball results indicate major league success. 

I shared his career innings and his career results.

You may parse them how you wish but they remain damning.

[Frobby]

13 hours ago, Philip said:

Hess is bad. He was bad today, He’s been bad, he’s never been good.

He may have great stuff but he gets whammed every time out.

I’m happy to dump Hess for ANYBODY.

Regarding Tate, I didn’t make any endorsement of him. I don’t care about keeping Tate, who, like Ortiz, was another “former first round pick” that was foisted onto the Orioles in a bad trade.

But Hess? There’s no reason to keep him. Maybe some other team can fix him and they are more than welcome to try. It’s obvious that remaining here does neither him nor us any good.

Nothing is “obvious” based on one bad ST outing.    Let’s stipulate he has been bad so far in his big league career.     He spent the winter doing various things to improve.    They either worked or they didn’t, but one ST outing doesn’t answer that question.   I will leave it to Hyde and his coaches to watch Hess carefully, both in games and in side work, and make that judgment.    You may be proved correct, but I think you are jumping the gun based on your predisposition towards the player.

[HowAboutThat]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nothing is “obvious” based on one bad ST outing.    Let’s stipulate he has been bad so far in his big league career.     He spent the winter doing various things to improve.    They either worked or they didn’t, but one ST outing doesn’t answer that question.   I will leave it to Hyde and his coaches to watch Hess carefully, both in games and in side work, and make that judgment.    You may be proved correct, but I think you are jumping the gun based on your predisposition towards the player.

I have no bias towards Hess. At the end of ‘18, I was pretty enthusiastic about him. Then 2019 happened, and he was dreadfully bad. His spring 2020 has been bad. When someone continues being whatever they have been, that’s not “one bad outing,” but a continuation.

Several other guys have been excellent, so the reason for keeping Hess around diminishes.

Finally, it is obvious he has some potential, if his problem can be identified and corrected. That hasn’t happened here, but it’s possible that it might happen elsewhere. 

To once more mention M Wright Jr, we kept him for what, 3+ seasons trying to fix a strong and powerful arm. It didn’t work.

Hess’ career numbers are revealing. 183 innings isn’t 1000, but it’s not a SSS. Ignoring that past and claiming instead that one bad outing, which continues that past, is not indicative of future performance, is disingenuous. Regardless, I would prefer to focus on guys with a shorter record of bad performance and current success.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Nothing is “obvious” based on one bad ST outing.

By the way, he hasn’t had just “one bad outing”, he’s had I think three total outings and the first one was quite good. His overall body of work this spring, however, has been mediocre at best, so again, I’m not judging him on one outing, whether good or bad.

[weams]

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/03/injury-updates-on-milone-iglesias-and-wynns.html

[Frobby]

41 minutes ago, Philip said:

By the way, he hasn’t had just “one bad outing”, he’s had I think three total outings and the first one was quite good. His overall body of work this spring, however, has been mediocre at best, so again, I’m not judging him on one outing, whether good or bad.

You are right, I hadn’t recalled that he had another outing that was pretty bad besides the one yesterday.    I already stipulated that Hess has been bad to this point in his career.   My point was I wasn’t going to judge whether his efforts at improvement over the winter had failed based on one ST outing.     Well, on review it’s two bad ST outings out of three.    More evidence against him, but you know me, I’m patient and will await further results.    We don’t need to DFA anyone for about three more weeks, so I’ll worry about it then.    
 

[HowAboutThat]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

You are right, I hadn’t recalled that he had another outing that was pretty bad besides the one yesterday.    I already stipulated that Hess has been bad to this point in his career.   My point was I wasn’t going to judge whether his efforts at improvement over the winter had failed based on one ST outing.     Well, on review it’s two bad ST outings out of three.    More evidence against him, but you know me, I’m patient and will await further results.    We don’t need to DFA anyone for about three more weeks, so I’ll worry about it then.    
 

I don’t disagree with that, and I’m perfectly willing to wait. But things look bad at the moment. By the way I think he has seven innings so far, but I was trying to find the minor-league stats for spring training and I couldn’t. You sent me a link to the minor-league affiliate, and I was just looking there but I couldn’t find anything for spring training 2020. Please remind me where I can find that information?

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Philip said:

I don’t disagree with that, and I’m perfectly willing to wait. But things look bad at the moment. By the way I think he has seven innings so far, but I was trying to find the minor-league stats for spring training and I couldn’t. You sent me a link to the minor-league affiliate, and I was just looking there but I couldn’t find anything for spring training 2020. Please remind me where I can find that information?

Just go to Orioles.com and click on Stats and they’ll pop right up.   This time of year, BB-ref also shows spring training stats on the player pages, but it looks like they are running a day behind at the moment, at least for Hess.  
 

His line so far: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K’s.    Not pretty, for sure.

 

[Enjoy Terror]

I think there are plenty of players that could be DFA'd before Hess. Like Austin Wynns and DSJ.

Like, Hess I think could be better. Wynns and DSJ are what they are, and I don't think it's much, and worse, they have been made redundant by other players.

You could easily do Severino/Holaday and Sisco/Davis at the Major and AAA levels with someone like Cumberland or Fajardo in a pinch. Wynns is a decent defender but he'll never be a major leaguer. I think he'd pass through waivers no problem.

DSJ doesn't have a position. He's won't hit enough to play everyday and he's not enough on defense to warrant a bench spot. DH spot is full.