Some stuff...

[Fan4Life]

Yes, it is different.

Our current FO is headed by a GM that has never been fond of 'spending big' on FA's.

Agreed that's his track record in the past. My point being I don't see him as a half-in kinda of guy, he's going in, or he's staying out. General concesous is he's staying out. Which means we won't have a competitive baseball team in Baltimore for many years. The Rays aren't going away, the Yanks and Sox will always have the highest payrolls and thus more room for error/injury/etc. That leaves us duking it out with the Jays for last place for the next 3-4 years. Not happy times.

[geschinger]

Agreed that's his track record in the past. My point being I don't see him as a half-in kinda of guy, he's going in, or he's staying out. General concesous is he's staying out. Which means we won't have a competitive baseball team in Baltimore for many years. The Rays aren't going away, the Yanks and Sox will always have the highest payrolls and thus more room for error/injury/etc. That leaves us duking it out with the Jays for last place for the next 3-4 years. Not happy times.

I don't understand why the assumption is that it will take 3-4 years if we avoid big money FA. If we do a good job and scouting and development, make shrewd trades and value FA signings it doesn't need to take that long. IMO it will have us to a point where we can contend quicker than if we load up on expensive FA who tie up a lot more resources than their production warrants.

[Ruzious]

He does not think we'll pay anyone over $12 million a season.

If that's true, we should have an organized boycott here next season.

- With the thin FA catching market the front office feels it will be able to deal Ramon Hernandez. Would take a starter or reliever in return.

Why a starter or reliever and not an infielder?

- I asked who the first pitching prospect (out of the guys AA and down) to join the Orioles rotation for more than just a call up and he said Arrieta. Most all scouts feel he could handle it now.

If the O's felt that way, then why in the blue hell did they put him and keep him in Frederick???

- I asked about the pen... A lot will depend on how Baez and Ray look in spring training. He felt for certain we would acquire at least one arm via trade or free agency.

That'd be a waste of resources.

[Fan4Life]

I don't understand why the assumption is that it will take 3-4 years if we avoid big money FA. If we do a good job and scouting and development, make shrewd trades and value FA signings it doesn't need to take that long. IMO it will have us to a point where we can contend quicker than if we load up on expensive FA who tie up a lot more resources than their production warrants.

What you outline is possible. I don't think we have enough assets in-house to trade for players that will have to fill roles that will allow us to compete in the next 3 years. Whether we trade BRob and/or Huff, both of their contracts are up after 2009. So going forward we need to fill:

We need:

1b

2b

ss

3b

3 - Starting pitchers

If we resign BRob, let Huff go FA (offer arbitatration?), I still don't see enough assets in the system (ML and MiL) to acquire players to fill the rest of the holes above aside from 2b that will make us a player in the division by 2010.

[btownoriole]

I don't understand why the assumption is that it will take 3-4 years if we avoid big money FA. If we do a good job and scouting and development, make shrewd trades and value FA signings it doesn't need to take that long. IMO it will have us to a point where we can contend quicker than if we load up on expensive FA who tie up a lot more resources than their production warrants.

I agree. The problem with this team is PITCHING. We need BOTH quality and quantity. Putting $18M toward Tex is a huge chunk of our resources that isn't going to fix the main problem.

I have changed my stance on Tex. Until we are closer to contention, which won't happen until the pitching is fixed, we shouldn't invest a huge amount into free agency. Between 2009 and 2010, let's see what we have with the young pitchers and guys like Wieters, Reimold, Montanez, Snyder, and Rowell (I realize he may not be major-league ready by '10 but let's see how he develops in the minors). Then plug the holes with free agency.

BTW, how many big-name free agents did the Blue Jays sign a couple of years ago? Where are they? How many have the Rays signed in the last couple of years? Where are they?

[BedardisAce]

I agree. The problem with this team is PITCHING. We need BOTH quality and quantity. Putting $18M toward Tex is a huge chunk of our resources that isn't going to fix the main problem.

I have changed my stance on Tex. Until we are closer to contention, which won't happen until the pitching is fixed, we shouldn't invest a huge amount into free agency. Between 2009 and 2010, let's see what we have with the young pitchers and guys like Wieters, Reimold, Montanez, Snyder, and Rowell (I realize he may not be major-league ready by '10 but let's see how he develops in the minors). Then plug the holes with free agency.

BTW, how many big-name free agents did the Blue Jays sign a couple of years ago? Where are they? How many have the Rays signed in the last couple of years? Where are they?

The problem right now is pitching. But look in the minors - in 2 years, the big problem is going to be hitting (maybe in addition to pitching depending on the development of our top prospects). When our pitching prospects are ready for contention, we are going to probably have big holes at 1b, 2b if BRob doesn't resign (and without adding some free agents, I don't see why he would), ss, and 3b - the whole infield. So since Tex is the only big free agent who actually has an interest in playing here and is only 29, why don't we be proactive and fill one of our future big holes now so we have to do less later to both fix the offense and attract big free agents?

A lot of posters here are short sighted about the offense. Because it is doing well now, you think its fine. Mora and Huff are probably gone after next year and BRob too. What does that leave us with?

[utvolzac]

I still find it surprising that people want to do "whatever it takes to sign Tex". To really outbid the big market teams, we're going to have to throw ridiculous money at Tex to get him to sign here.

Baltimore is a decent market, but I don't think it can sustain a 110-125 million dollar payroll.

There is a blue print for this kind of scenario. Look at Texas when they over spent beyond their means on ARod. They had a superstar player and couldn't afford anything else. And Dallas is a huge revenue market.

I could easily see that happening in Baltimore if we got over board on a contract for Tex. I'm not against going after Tex if we can sign him reasonably. But He is not worth 20-25 million dollars. He's not that good.

[JTrea81]

I still find it surprising that people want to do "whatever it takes to sign Tex". To really outbid the big market teams, we're going to have to throw ridiculous money at Tex to get him to sign here.

Baltimore is a decent market, but I don't think it can sustain a 110-125 million dollar payroll.

There is a blue print for this kind of scenario. Look at Texas when they over spent beyond their means on ARod. They had a superstar player and couldn't afford anything else. And Dallas is a huge revenue market.

I could easily see that happening in Baltimore if we got over board on a contract for Tex. I'm not against going after Tex if we can sign him reasonably. But He is not worth 20-25 million dollars. He's not that good.

You can't compare Texas because they couldn't develop any pitching. A-Rod didn't cripple them, their pitching staff and poor development of pitching did them in. Chan Ho Park didn't help either. And the Rangers aren't a huge market. Football is more popular than baseball in Texas. The Orioles also have an RSN and the Rangers do not.

The Orioles could easily afford Teixeira and not cripple the team.

[geschinger]

Baltimore is a decent market, but I don't think it can sustain a 110-125 million dollar payroll.

I know many disagree, but from everything I've seen and read I agree with this. In the short term, I think we might be able to go to $100m without it being too much a burden on ownership. In the long term, we'll have to see how MASN plays out. Right now I think we're getting screwed compared to other RSN's having to make the huge payout to the Nats and not being able to collect twice as much from every subscriber.

The Orioles also have an RSN and the Rangers do not.

The Orioles could easily afford Teixeira and not cripple the team.

What percentage of a team's payroll is acceptable for Tex in your opinion? At what percentage of the payroll does Tex go from being someone we should sign to someone we shouldn't?

[geschinger]

What you outline is possible. I don't think we have enough assets in-house to trade for players that will have to fill roles that will allow us to compete in the next 3 years. Whether we trade BRob and/or Huff, both of their contracts are up after 2009. So going forward we need to fill:

We need:

1b

2b

ss

3b

3 - Starting pitchers

If we resign BRob, let Huff go FA (offer arbitatration?), I still don't see enough assets in the system (ML and MiL) to acquire players to fill the rest of the holes above aside from 2b that will make us a player in the division by 2010.

You try to find Carlos Pena types to plug fill some positions. While we don't have a lot of assets, we try and trade what we do have (i.e. Roberts) for quantity of quality. Use our resources that we hopefully haven't tied up in bad contracts to essentially buy talent at the deadline by taking on salary dumps etc... There is a lot that can be done that can show results quickly.

[utvolzac]

You can't compare Texas because they couldn't develop any pitching. A-Rod didn't cripple them, their pitching staff and poor development of pitching did them in. Chan Ho Park didn't help either. And the Rangers aren't a huge market. Football is more popular than baseball in Texas. The Orioles also have an RSN and the Rangers do not.

The Orioles could easily afford Teixeira and not cripple the team.

Okay, let me know when a young pitcher comes through our system that turns into anything productive. I think we have some potential with Tillman, Arietta, Matusz, but given our track record, I'll believe it when I see it.

I don't care how popular football is in Texas, Dallas is a monster market. Baltimore does not compare to Dallas. Especially without DC anymore.

I think a realistic payroll for Baltimore is $100 million. I'm not comfortable investing 20-25% of the payroll in one player. Tex is good, but he is not a player on that level ala, ARod, Pujols, etc.

I'm not from Baltimore, so I'm not as enamored with the hometown hero aspect of the Tex saga. I view him as any other player we would have interest in. If you look at it objectively, going overboard is not a good idea. The Yankees and Red Sox can get away with wasting money like that, we cannot. Too many people are overvaluing Tex, he is not on the same level as your elite players like Pujols or ARod.

[allstar1579]

See the problem with all of this is we are going to have to to it sooner or later if we want to be competitive. Whether it is Tex, or some 32 year old pitcher coming off of a career year, we will have to blatantly overspend on a FA to show other future FA that we will spend the money and do "what it takes to win" whatever that means...just more cliche' for this team will pay me, lets go there. This is why every FA in the NFL stops in WAS first, because they overpaid a few times, and now everyone thinks they will for them too. It gives a foot in the door, for the ones you don't want and the ones you do.

We are not going to overtake the Rays, Red Sox, or Yankees without either realignment (also a fan of) or by adding some FA to the developed talent we already have. If not, by the time our talent develops and contributes, they will be pushing into their arb. years and we will be trading them off because we aren't ready to compete yet like the A's.

If you are going to have to make a token overpayment in FA, why not do it for a guy like Tex who satisfies multiple needs, 1B, middle of the order hitter, and a good person in the clubhouse (chemistry is important)? Look at other big splashy 1B who may or may not come available later...Fielder (attitude and conditioning issues), Howard (strikeouts and average issues). Why not make your run and token overpayment for the most consistent of the group? He will cost us a 2nd round pick and some money, that is it. Acquiring an impact bat via trade will cripple our farm system we are still developing.

The other option? Draft and develop, that is great and all, except to draft one, a college impact bat, IF he doesn't end up a bust, will take 2-3 years to be ready to seriously contribute, HS 4-5 years. With the wave of pitching we are trying so hard to develop, they won't be ready in time to contribute with them and the young core we have now. So we can either become the A's and develop and trade while never really getting the timing to work out right, or we can hope for realignment so we don't have to be as good as we need to be in this division, or we can make some sacrifices somewhere, overpaying to make a statement is one of them.

[T2E2C]

You can't compare Texas because they couldn't develop any pitching. A-Rod didn't cripple them, their pitching staff and poor development of pitching did them in. Chan Ho Park didn't help either.

It's funny even the Rangers must believe that when they traded John Danks for Brandon McCarthy. And they developed a pretty good pitcher in Edinson Volquez, too.

Signing Chan Ho Park was ARod's idea using his influence with Tom Hicks. Park was also a Scott Boras client.

[JTrea81]

It's funny even the Rangers must believe that when they traded John Danks for Brandon McCarthy. And they developed a pretty good pitcher in Edinson Volquez, too.

Signing Chan Ho Park was ARod's idea using his influence with Tom Hicks. Park was also a Scott Boras client.

Danks and Volquez both developed after A-Rod left Texas. Danks was drafted in A-Rod's last year with the team. But the Danks trade also shows that the Rangers made a ton of stupid trades before and after A-Rod left the team.

And we already have two Boras clients to play with Tex, Wieters and Guthrie...

[Stotle]

As usual read into this as little or as much as you want....

- I asked who the first pitching prospect (out of the guys AA and down) to join the Orioles rotation for more than just a call up and he said Arrieta. Most all scouts feel he could handle it now.

If this is true (which I doubt unless he's talking bullpen) I question why he spent an entire year at HiA without a promotion. Arrieta is going to jump ahead of four or so pitchers, not even taking Matusz into account? If this is true all I can do is shake my head and wonder what the organization is thinking vis-a-vis player development...