2009 Draft: #2 Grant Green (9-22-08)

[Stotle]

I posted in the Strasburg thread about Boras before I read this thread so I'll just ask here.

1. If, by some crazy insane circumstance, the four teams ahead of us are SO scared of Boras that both Green and Strasburg fall to us at 5, who do you pick? Do you go with talent or need?

2. Only one team drafting ahead of us next year (Pirates) were drafting ahead of us when Wieters fell. Can we expect at least one of the Nats, Mariners and Giants to avoid Boras? The Pirates' new GM, Neal Huntington, the new-fangled stats geek who lives in his mother's basement, was given the job after the 07 draft. Would the Pirates' money problems still be enough to drive him away from Boras?

3. If either Strasburg or Green fall to us, and this is the most important question: will MacPhail allow Jordan to take the bait? Hasn't he said in the past that he wouldn't have drafted Wieters and that he doesn't want to deal with Boras?

1. Strasburg - he's a better starter than Green is a SS and both are hard to find.

2. I'd imagine WAS would be the most likely to avoid high bonus demands. PIT likely won't take money into account -- they'll sign the best available. If they were to pass on Green/Strasburg because of Boras, it would be cutting off their collective nose to spite their collective face.

3. I can't imagine BAL passing on either. MacPhail will be giving his opinion, but I have to think the organization is pleased with the direction of the system and that MacPhail realizes Jordan has a better handle on this stuff.

[Greg Pappas]

I posted in the Strasburg thread about Boras before I read this thread so I'll just ask here.

1. If, by some crazy insane circumstance, the four teams ahead of us are SO scared of Boras that both Green and Strasburg fall to us at 5, who do you pick? Do you go with talent or need?

2. Only one team drafting ahead of us next year (Pirates) were drafting ahead of us when Wieters fell. Can we expect at least one of the Nats, Mariners and Giants to avoid Boras? The Pirates' new GM, Neal Huntington, the new-fangled stats geek who lives in his mother's basement, was given the job after the 07 draft. Would the Pirates' money problems still be enough to drive him away from Boras?

3. If either Strasburg or Green fall to us, and this is the most important question: will MacPhail allow Jordan to take the bait? Hasn't he said in the past that he wouldn't have drafted Wieters and that he doesn't want to deal with Boras?

I see that Stotle has responded, and I agree with his answers throughout.

[wickedwitch]

I posted in the Strasburg thread about Boras before I read this thread so I'll just ask here.

1. If, by some crazy insane circumstance, the four teams ahead of us are SO scared of Boras that both Green and Strasburg fall to us at 5, who do you pick? Do you go with talent or need?

2. Only one team drafting ahead of us next year (Pirates) were drafting ahead of us when Wieters fell. Can we expect at least one of the Nats, Mariners and Giants to avoid Boras? The Pirates' new GM, Neal Huntington, the new-fangled stats geek who lives in his mother's basement, was given the job after the 07 draft. Would the Pirates' money problems still be enough to drive him away from Boras?

3. If either Strasburg or Green fall to us, and this is the most important question: will MacPhail allow Jordan to take the bait? Hasn't he said in the past that he wouldn't have drafted Wieters and that he doesn't want to deal with Boras?

1) Strasburg, by a lot. Obviously, things may be different 8 months from now, but if the draft was today, you go with Strasburg. It's a completely moot point however, because there's now way Strasburg falls to us. I can't imagine any team passing on him, but that's especially true for SD, as he grew up there and goes to college there.

2) It depends on the individual player more than Boras.

3) Don't know.

[mikezpen]

We'll draft Tyler Matzek and continually get him confused with Matusz.

[oriole_way]

I agree in part, but I think you might be underestimating the value of having the top prospect in your system for a year. Further, the WAS example doesn't really work unless they are willing to pay for top draftees (current indication is that they are not). They will likely have a shot at two top draftees -- can you see them spending $7-10mio to get the best available at each pick?

1. Of course a team would always prefer to add a top prospect in their system this year rather than waiting a year. But if the goal is to get help for the major league team as soon as possible, high school players would almost never be drafted highly, since their timetable is obviously longer compared to the timetable of a more polished college product. But that's not the case.

2. Your reasoning about the Nationals kind of proves my point actually. If they are not willing to pay the outrageous money that the best available player is demanding, yet pick that player anyway, it shows that they are not scared off by the agent's demands, likely because they have the leverage of just using the pick the following year if need be.

[oriole_way]

But the replacement pick is not protected, so the team has virtually no leverage the following year.

So your saying that a team would be gunshy about drafting a tough to sign player because they are afraid of not being able to sign a guy from that same draft slot the following year. That seems a bit farfetched to me.

And it's not that the team has virtually no leverage the next year. They just have less leverage. And remember that this compensatory system to award a same slot draft pick for failing to sign a first round draft pick was only recently enacted. Before, if you didn't sign your first round draft pick, I believe that you only received a supplemental sandwich pick at the end of the round. It's not as if teams could never sign their top draft picks back then.

[Stotle]

1. Of course a team would always prefer to add a top prospect in their system this year rather than waiting a year. But if the goal is to get help for the major league team as soon as possible, high school players would almost never be drafted highly, since their timetable is obviously longer compared to the timetable of a more polished college product. But that's not the case.

2. Your reasoning about the Nationals kind of proves my point actually. If they are not willing to pay the outrageous money that the best available player is demanding, yet pick that player anyway, it shows that they are not scared off by the agent's demands, likely because they have the leverage of just using the pick the following year if need be.

The point is the developmental time has value, and you are missing out on that. Also, while it may not seem common-sensical, teams don't want to spend tons on the draft. By that I mean WAS isn't likely to go into next year thinking "We saved money last year so now we can grab White and Tate, even if it costs us $9mio to do it."

Put another way, fs WAS was uncertain about paying Crow (who was demanding a ton) why not grab this guy who was considered a safe bet to sign for slot and was one of the most polished bats in the entire draft? He signed early, played in 54 games this summer and reached AA.

[McLovin]

Now this thread has me all hot and bothered about Green. Sounds like he was a massive prospect coming into the year, but the power just didn't come around.

I think I'm hoping we pick him...

[QBsILLEST1]

Yeah this write up got me really really wanting to draft him. Im guessing a combo of pressure and an apparent hand injuury are what sapped his power away. Ill bet no one though is more disappointed than Green himself.....

[Greg Pappas]

Yeah this write up got me really really wanting to draft him. Im guessing a combo of pressure and an apparent hand injuury are what sapped his power away. Ill bet no one though is more disappointed than Green himself.....

Green did not play up to expectations, but still played well, despite having some injuries early in the season and too many errors throughout. The talent is there, and there is a good chance that a lot of teams are going to be kicking themselves for passing over him.

[Sports Guy]

Please draft him!!!!!

[Mackus]

Please draft him!!!!!

If the Orioles take him, I will be very excited.

Not because I think he's the best pick there, but because that would mean that Joe Jordan thinks he's the best pick there. If Jordan likes what he sees in Green enough to take him over a slew of really good pitching prospects, then that is definitely something to get excited over.

I think Jordan prefers and will draft one of the pitchers though. I'm hoping for Wheeler at this point because I think Matzek will be gone, we won't go after Crow, and I don't really like White that much.

[LookinUp]

Please draft him!!!!!

This will be my new sig. Don't take it personally. I just think it'll be fun to track over time. I'm sure others will do this with some of JTrea's posts too though.

[Sports Guy]

This will be my new sig. Don't take it personally. I just think it'll be fun to track over time. I'm sure others will do this with some of JTrea's posts too though.

That's fine...I am going to assume that he can stick at SS based on things I am reading.

I haven't seen him so I don't have my own "personal" opinion on that but I will just refer to the experts here and most of them seem to think he can stick at SS.

[LookinUp]

I think he'd be a terrific pick for the Nats at #10, but I haven't heard one rumor of that actually happening.

I'd be ok if we end up with him.