Lineup is Pretty Good

[sportsfan8703]

Mountcastle should be up, but what about AR?  In all seriousness. When does that start to become a question?

[Sports Guy]

The lineup isn’t good but I will say that a lot of the spots in the lineup have a player with potential to at least be some kind of a significant role player for a few years.

But all of those guys could also be DFA candidates by the end of the year or early part of 2021.

[Ruzious]

On 8/1/2020 at 11:55 PM, Moose Milligan said:

It's certainly not a terrible lineup.  I think that they might be prone to extended slumps and run scoring droughts and there aren't a lot of OBP guys.

But there's some pop.  I really like Alberto, too.

But what's missing, really, is household names and that's a byproduct of these guys not being around long enough to get known.

The case can be made that Alberto's been among the top few pure hitters against left-handed pitching - combining this season and last.  

I know the O's won't keep it up, but I'm enjoying the 60 game sample size season.  Just hoping the Commissioner doesn't implode and ruin it.      

[Moose Milligan]

33 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

The case can be made that Alberto's been among the top few pure hitters against left-handed pitching - combining this season and last.  

I know the O's won't keep it up, but I'm enjoying the 60 game sample size season.  Just hoping the Commissioner doesn't implode and ruin it.      

He certainly is.  

And it looks like he *might* be figuring out righthanders, too.  

[drjohnnyfeva]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29525916/what-2020-mlb-season-bring-all-30-teams  This article was printed on 7/29/20.

From, The Tankers section at the bottom...

"If the Orioles win the World Series, it won't be because they're secretly better than we thought, and they won't ask us to believe it. It'll just be chaos. We'll love it.

...No bad team has ever won, or will win, a World Series.

Except this year, one might. As FanGraphs' playoff odds show, cutting the season from 162 games to 60 increased the Tigers' chances of making the playoffs by 20 times. And that was before they doubled the number of playoff teams.

It's still unlikely that the Tigers will win the World Series, and the Orioles are so bad that in simulations their odds of making the playoffs barely moved at all. But this season, for the first time in major league history, teams like the Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Mariners and Royals have actual chances. In a way, this is history, and the Orioles have a chance to make it."

There was another article I read that I can't locate now that was actually insulting to the O's, but very funny too.  I think most of us get that dichotomy with our club over the past couple decades.  Anyway, it said of our chances something to the effect, "...seriously?!"  I laughed out loud.

I'm glad so far that it hasn't turned out as bad as what was expected by the "experts."  At least it's fun to watch.  Go O's.

 

[OFFNY]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

2014 saw the fewest runs scored in MLB since 1981. Not quite the same context. '20 scoring is off (so far) from '19, and is still half a run a game higher than '14.

 

o

 

Is that overall runs, or runs-per-game ???

I ask because 1981 was a strike-shortened season, so if it was overall runs then the citation would go back even further (if you exclude strike-shortened seasons.)

 

o

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, OFFNY said:

o

 

Is that over all runs, or runs-per-game ???

I ask because 1981 was a strike-shortened season, so if it was overall runs then the citation would go back even further (if you exclude strike-shortened season.)

 

o

Per game.

[GuidoSarducci]

4 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

2014 saw the fewest runs scored in MLB since 1981.  Not quite the same context.  '20 scoring is off (so far) from '19 and is still half a run a game higher than '14.

You can use OPS+ and my answer doesn't change much.   Of course, its probably a little early to get good OPS+ numbers, and we don't know how people are going to finish, etc..  But I think people are overrating how good the 2014 O's were offensively.  Our R/G was only slightly above AL average.  Our pitching however, was 3rd best in the AL, particularly our bullpen which was scary good with Britton, Brach and O'Day.  Our starting rotation all had ERAs around 3.5 saving Jimenez, and you can justify replacing him with Gausman  who only had 2 less starts and ERA of ~3.5.  

As crazy as it is to think about, its entirely possible that Rio Ruiz in 2020 will have a better year offensively than Machado in 2014. Assuming the season even finishes, which at this poitnt is maybe 50/50

 

Edited August 3, 2020 by GuidoSarducci

[makoman]

47 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

You can use OPS+ and my answer doesn't change much.   Of course, its probably a little early to get good OPS+ numbers, and we don't know how people are going to finish, etc..  But I think people are overrating how good the 2014 O's were offensively.  Our R/G was only slightly above AL average.  Our pitching however, was 3rd best in the AL, particularly our bullpen which was scary good with Britton, Brach and O'Day.  Our starting rotation all had ERAs around 3.5 saving Jimenez, and you can justify replacing him with Gausman  who only had 2 less starts and ERA of ~3.5.  

As crazy as it is to think about, its entirely possible that Rio Ruiz in 2020 will have a better year offensively than Machado in 2014. Assuming the season even finishes, which at this poitnt is maybe 50/50

 

Yes, probably a little early to think that we will have 3 guys with over 200 OPS+. Or we can assume that Iglesias will double his career SLG and have an OPS+ that Bonds never reached. No one has 40 PAs yet, comparing OPS to the full years in 2014 is just crazy at this point. 

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

You can use OPS+ and my answer doesn't change much.   Of course, its probably a little early to get good OPS+ numbers, and we don't know how people are going to finish, etc..  But I think people are overrating how good the 2014 O's were offensively.  Our R/G was only slightly above AL average.  Our pitching however, was 3rd best in the AL, particularly our bullpen which was scary good with Britton, Brach and O'Day.  Our starting rotation all had ERAs around 3.5 saving Jimenez, and you can justify replacing him with Gausman  who only had 2 less starts and ERA of ~3.5.  

As crazy as it is to think about, its entirely possible that Rio Ruiz in 2020 will have a better year offensively than Machado in 2014. Assuming the season even finishes, which at this poitnt is maybe 50/50

 

Ruis is 26 and has a career OPS+ of 77.  Manny's 2014 was 110.  It's pretty unlikely.

[GuidoSarducci]

30 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ruis is 26 and has a career OPS+ of 77.  Manny's 2014 was 110.  It's pretty unlikely.

Prior to last year Ruiz logged less than a half a season of game.s  His OPS+ last year in 127 games was 81.  Last year Hans Alberto's OPS+ was 98.  Prior to that he played 80 or so game sin the majors, finishing OPS+ of 35, -20 and 33. 

[DrungoHazewood]

16 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Prior to last year Ruiz logged less than a half a season of game.s  His OPS+ last year in 127 games was 81.  Last year Hans Alberto's OPS+ was 98.  Prior to that he played 80 or so game sin the majors, finishing OPS+ of 35, -20 and 33. 

Ruiz' AAA OPS, mostly in Gwinnett which is pretty neutral, is .744 in 1500 plate appearances.  He'd have to show some pretty astounding growth to go from a .744 in AAA, a 77 OPS+ in the majors, to a 110 or better this year.

[25 Nuggets]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Ruiz' AAA OPS, mostly in Gwinnett which is pretty neutral, is .744 in 1500 plate appearances.  He'd have to show some pretty astounding growth to go from a .744 in AAA, a 77 OPS+ in the majors, to a 110 or better this year.

Because the season's only 60 games, all he really needs is a hot streak.  I think you're going to see a lot of outliers in average-type categories.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Because the season's only 60 games, all he really needs is a hot streak.  I think you're going to see a lot of outliers in average-type categories.

I think you will see some, but how often does a poor hitter have a .850 OPS in June?  This season is not too much shorter than the 2nd half of a typical season (the All Star break is usually about 90 games in).  If you look at second half leaders most of them are just the best players. A few outliers, but mostly.

                                                              
Rk    I               Player    Split Year  G   OPS GS  PA  AB
1           Christian Yelich 2nd Half 2018 65 1.219 64 294 256
2                Mike Napoli 2nd Half 2011 61 1.171 58 249 214
3                 Joey Votto 2nd Half 2016 72 1.158 71 314 262
4                 Joey Votto 2nd Half 2015 73 1.152 73 325 235
5                Nelson Cruz 2nd Half 2019 58 1.147 56 254 221
6               Alex Bregman 2nd Half 2019 68 1.134 68 296 237
7          Edwin Encarnacion 2nd Half 2015 61 1.132 61 268 223
8              J.D. Martinez 2nd Half 2017 66 1.123 65 274 245
9               Buster Posey 2nd Half 2012 71 1.102 69 298 257
10               David Ortiz 2nd Half 2015 66 1.102 65 274 234
11            Miguel Cabrera 2nd Half 2011 69 1.100 68 300 257
12             Jose Bautista 2nd Half 2010 73 1.099 73 317 265
13             Josh Hamilton 2nd Half 2010 48 1.098 47 203 177
14         Giancarlo Stanton 2nd Half 2017 73 1.095 71 323 272
15           Carlos Gonzalez 2nd Half 2010 68 1.091 65 289 262
16               Ketel Marte 2nd Half 2019 57 1.081 55 244 215
17            Eugenio Suarez 2nd Half 2019 72 1.081 69 297 253
18               Chris Davis 2nd Half 2015 74 1.078 74 318 266
19               Jorge Soler 2nd Half 2019 71 1.076 71 305 251
20            Miguel Cabrera 2nd Half 2012 75 1.074 75 317 279
21           Freddie Freeman 2nd Half 2016 70 1.067 70 312 257
22             Justin Turner 2nd Half 2018 55 1.066 52 237 202
23          Charlie Blackmon 2nd Half 2017 70 1.064 70 319 277
24           Troy Tulowitzki 2nd Half 2011 57 1.060 54 238 205
25            Miguel Cabrera 2nd Half 2016 70 1.057 70 298 260
26                Mike Trout 2nd Half 2019 47 1.054 46 209 168
27              Gary Sanchez 2nd Half 2016 52 1.052 52 225 197
28             Yordan lvarez 2nd Half 2019 68 1.044 64 287 240
29              Bryce Harper 2nd Half 2015 72 1.043 72 311 244
30                Joey Votto 2nd Half 2010 66 1.042 63 278 238
31                Ryan Braun 2nd Half 2011 67 1.034 65 278 257
32          Christian Yelich 2nd Half 2019 48 1.034 47 215 185
33             Albert Pujols 2nd Half 2010 72 1.033 70 315 266
34              Jayson Werth 2nd Half 2013 65 1.032 64 273 230
35             Nolan Arenado 2nd Half 2017 70 1.032 68 292 254
36          Ronald Acuna Jr. 2nd Half 2018 68 1.028 66 303 264
37                Mike Trout 2nd Half 2013 65 1.023 65 290 219
38            Anthony Rendon 2nd Half 2019 71 1.023 71 322 265
39             J.D. Martinez 2nd Half 2018 58 1.021 58 252 215
40           Troy Tulowitzki 2nd Half 2010 60 1.020 60 264 235
41             Marcus Semien 2nd Half 2019 70 1.018 70 323 280
42              Paul Konerko 2nd Half 2010 69 1.017 68 293 257
43             Shin-Soo Choo 2nd Half 2015 69 1.016 67 305 248
44              Rhys Hoskins 2nd Half 2017 50 1.014 50 212 170
45                Tommy Pham 2nd Half 2018 50 1.013 49 217 181
46            Josh Donaldson 2nd Half 2015 69 1.011 69 317 265
47            Prince Fielder 2nd Half 2012 76 1.006 76 319 260
48              Keston Hiura 2nd Half 2019 57 1.006 53 238 213
49              Yuli Gurriel 2nd Half 2019 62 1.005 61 259 236
50          Charlie Blackmon 2nd Half 2016 68 1.003 64 305 278

[Frobby]

20 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

3B 2014 Machado OPS 755 vs Ruiz 1112.  Win for 2020.

You just lost all credibility.    There’s not a manager on the planet who would start Rio Ruiz over the 2014 version of Manny Machado, and 6 good games for Ruiz doesn’t change that fact.