The O's should go for it

[OFFNY]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I’d be OK with alphabetical order by city ........ that would put us at 3 (really 2, since “Arizona” is not a city.)

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Report: MLB Hasn't Decided How to Set 2021 Draft Order

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1999982/amp

 

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[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

The playoffs.

Yes, sure,  trade Givens.   But even doing that the O's have a decent chance at making the playoffs.

If the reports are true I think its more important to play into October than to give Cobb away.  They can try to trade him this winter. Its worth his $2m in salary to keep him for the rest of the season.   Here is what MLBTR has to say about trading Cobb:

I don't see the point trading Cobb now If he O's have to pay some one to take him.   He may be able to keep the O's in the playoff race.

The O's are about to improve their offense and defense by getting Iglesias and Severino back.  With the addition of Mountcastle they could be better than when they went on the 7-1 run vs the Nationals and Phillies.

I think Means is going to have a good September.  Cobb,  Milone is doing surprisingly well. Eshelman is pitching well.    That leaves the 5th starter spot for Wojo, Akin or Kremer.   The starting pitching could come together.  And even without Givens I think the O's have enough relief pitching to win the 8th spot in the playoffs.   Playing into October could  be big for the young O's players.

I say go for it O's. 

 

I adamantly disagree with going for it. Its easy to become impatient with the process but it is not in the best interest of the team

 

Cobb, Milone, Sulser, Givens, and any other bull pen should be dealt for value.

Please dont be fooled into believing we have enough starting pitching. Eshelman has been successful in relief but can he do it when the lineup is stacked by the opposing manager.

[Number5]

22 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I say 20% this year's record, 40% last year's, 20% reverse order of Nielsen Media Market size, and 20% reverse order of average household income of metro area.

Surely they can complicate it more than that.

[Roll Tide]

53 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There is no going for it.  They're very obviously not going to sacrifice even the smallest asset for more wins this year.  And they'll trade whomever brings back a decent return. 

They currently have somewhere between a 0.1% and 0.3% chance of winning the Series.  Sacrificing anything to slightly move that needle is crack smoking craziness.  And there's nothing even halfway rational they could do that would move it more than slightly.

100% agree Sir!

[CallMeBrooksie]

I just think we should all be on the same page in regards to this: 

The O's do NOT have a good chance of making the playoffs. Even with the fluky win streaks early in the season, the Jays are so much better than us and are huge favorites to finish ahead of us. I also don't see any other teams ahead of us in the standings who could possibly drop below the O's, barring some baseball miracle.

The 8 seed is a pipe dream.

[Philip]

I think they ARE going for it....but not in any meaningful way.

No to any upgrade-the-present trades, but yes to any good downgrade-the-present-but-upgrade-the-future trades, no calling up of prospects for the purpose of anything other than prospect development, and if they help us win a bit now, that’s just Lagniappe.

With all this, if they happen to stumble into a 32-28 record and The 8th seed, well Yay.

But 28-32 will be as welcome.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, eddie83 said:

I know this isn’t a football or basketball draft but it’s still a big deal. Trade deadline is 4 days away. Would think this story would be talked about more. 

Agreed.  Teams should know this.

If they were to say, we are just using the draft order from the previous year, it may make teams like Detroit and Baltimore, 2 teams that in theory could get in the playoffs, more aggressive.

Im sure Elias would be ecstatic if he knew right now he was getting the second pick next year.

[SteveA]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Agreed.  Teams should know this.

If they were to say, we are just using the draft order from the previous year, it may make teams like Detroit and Baltimore, 2 teams that in theory could get in the playoffs, more aggressive.

Im sure Elias would be ecstatic if he knew right now he was getting the second pick next year.

Even if you combine 2019 and 2020 records, we wouldn't be too bad off.

If we finish .500 which is probably the besat you could expect, we would pass Miami if they were 27-33 or worse, KC if they were 25-35 or worse, Seattle if they are 16-44 or worse, and Pittsburgh if they were 15-45 or worse.   So WORST CASE we would drop to 6th.   And right now only one of those four teams is actually on pace to finish with the record they would need to be behind us.   Realistically, a .500 season would probalby have us drafting 3rd or 4th.

So I hope that's the formula they use.   

[Morgan423]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Agreed.  Teams should know this.

If they were to say, we are just using the draft order from the previous year, it may make teams like Detroit and Baltimore, 2 teams that in theory could get in the playoffs, more aggressive.

Im sure Elias would be ecstatic if he knew right now he was getting the second pick next year.

I know many have weighed in, but the draft should just be as simple as last year plus this year.  It's pretty reflective of where teams still are overall while accounting a bit for teams looking a little better or worse in the short season.                                                                                                                          

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Number5 said:

Surely they can complicate it more than that.

They could just stick with reverse order of record and perhaps give the $500M revenue Red Sox a top pick and the Rays (who hadn't noticed anything different with the crowds) the 28th.

[Lucky_13]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think the decision on trading Cobb is do the O's trade him in the next few days or do they trade him over the winter.   If they have to  eat salary either way then trade him over the winter.  The reason to trade him now is if they can get a decent prospect in return.     If they can't just wait and see what he can do to help the O's make the playoffs.

I'd argue if you can't eat salary and get a good prospect now, you simply dump his salary for nothing that way you can spend that in the offseason. Because I think in 2021 they'll be close but not quite competitive but close enough to bring in some free agents. 

Spend Cobb's money on a guy like Stroman or eat the money for prospects.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

1 hour ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

I just think we should all be on the same page in regards to this: 

The O's do NOT have a good chance of making the playoffs. Even with the fluky win streaks early in the season, the Jays are so much better than us and are huge favorites to finish ahead of us. I also don't see any other teams ahead of us in the standings who could possibly drop below the O's, barring some baseball miracle.

The 8 seed is a pipe dream.

Exactly. The O's played great for two weeks - but they are who they are. Quite honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if the Red Sox pass them by the end of the season.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Exactly. The O's played great for two weeks - but they are who they are. Quite honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if the Red Sox pass them by the end of the season.

I'd be a bit surprised, not because I think the O's are that good but the Sox are 4.5 back and they are a pretty weak team.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

I think they ARE going for it....but not in any meaningful way.

No to any upgrade-the-present trades, but yes to any good downgrade-the-present-but-upgrade-the-future trades, no calling up of prospects for the purpose of anything other than prospect development, and if they help us win a bit now, that’s just Lagniappe.

With all this, if they happen to stumble into a 32-28 record and The 8th seed, well Yay.

But 28-32 will be as welcome.

And more than likely get our asses kicked by the Yankees in the 1st series

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

They could just stick with reverse order of record and perhaps give the $500M revenue Red Sox a top pick and the Rays (who hadn't noticed anything different with the crowds) the 28th.

They should repeat the same order from last year ... Maybe throw in some coin flip scenarios