14-16 at the midpoint

[Frobby]

30 games isn’t much, but for this year it’s the midpoint, so let’s take stock.   

14-16 is certainly better than most expected, but it’s not “contention” so far as I’m concerned.    Over a 162 game season, a .467 winning percentage gets a team 75-76 wins.    And I’d be lying if I said I thought this team could maintain that pace over 162 games.

Let’s look at how we got here.   The offense has performed extremely well.   4.8 runs per game is 6th in the AL; .764 OPS is 5th.    Do I think it’s sustainable?   Frankly, no.   The offense has been carried by 5-6 hot starts, and already some of those guys (Ruiz, Alberto) are starting to come back to earth.    I do think there are other guys who will have their turn to get hot, but on balance,  the team has overperformed on offense.    

As to the pitching, our 4.77 ERA ranks 10th.    That’s a huge improvement over last year, and frankly, I expected some improvement over last year’s historically bad performance.    But I feel we’ve been aided a lot by having expanded rosters, adding more arms to the bullpen.   Our starters are averaging 4.3 innings per start, and in a normal season that would destroy a bullpen.   In fairness, this is going on all over the league, which is averaging only 4.6 IP per start.    But it works to the O’s advantage due to the mediocrity of our starting staff (5.37 ERA, 0.62 over league average).    The bullpen has been credible, posting a 4.20 ERA (0.15 over league average) and converting 2/3 of its save opportunities (right on league average).     I think the O’s will continue to show improvement over last year’s pitching, though they may slip a little.    

One area I think can improve is the defense.    Iglesias’ injuries have cost a lot of stability in the infield, so if he can return and stay healthy that will help a lot.    Ditto with Hays in the OF, which would allow the O’s to use Mullins more flexibly.   Dwight Smith is gone and that’s an improvement right there.    

Overall, I think this team has overperformed, and is likely to slip further back over the next 30 days even if no trades are made (and I do expect some trades that will weaken our current roster, most likely in the bullpen).    But, I do see some improvements over last year that are encouraging for the longer term.  I’ll wait until the “full” 60 games are played to make a better educated guess on that, however.   

If I had to guess our final record, I’d say 25-26 wins.   

[Sports Guy]

Well said.

I am interested to see what happens at the deadline.  
 

I mentioned in another thread the idea of a Severino/Givens/Castro package.  I think it makes a lot of sense to trade all 3.  You can argue that Castro will be non tendered in the offseason and you have Sisco performing well and Rutschman knocking on the door, so if you can get value for Severino now, do it.  Givens is also a no brainer.

The reason I bring this up is because I also think this paved the way for more young pitching to be brought up.  I know Harvey is expected back and he takes one of the spots but I think we start to see more and more young arms next month.

I am curious if that helps or hurts.  They still have a chance at the 8th seed although I think them finishing outside the top 10 is just as likely.  
 

Offensively, I hope we can get Hays back (I thought he was only out 10 days!?!) soon and I would like to see Diaz up.

The last month stands a chance to be a fun one to watch.  Hopefully it happens although I’m not holding my breath.

[Philip]

No disagreement. The best thing we can do is sell high on as many guys as possible. I’d love to finish 30-30, I don’t think 28 wins would be bad at all.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Well said.

I am interested to see what happens at the deadline.  
 

I mentioned in another thread the idea of a Severino/Givens/Castro package.  I think it makes a lot of sense to trade all 3.  You can argue that Castro will be non tendered in the offseason and you have Sisco performing well and Rutschman knocking on the door, so if you can get value for Severino now, do it.  Givens is also a no brainer.

The reason I bring this up is because I also think this paved the way for more young pitching to be brought up.  I know Harvey is expected back and he takes one of the spots but I think we start to see more and more young arms next month.

I am curious if that helps or hurts.  They still have a chance at the 8th seed although I think them finishing outside the top 10 is just as likely.  
 

Offensively, I hope we can get Hays back (I thought he was only out 10 days!?!) soon and I would like to see Diaz up.

The last month stands a chance to be a fun one to watch.  Hopefully it happens although I’m not holding my breath.

I agree Castro should be shopped around and hopefully bring a return but I would be shocked if he gets non-tendered if he stays.
He’s making just over a million this year, from what I found the record for reliever raise in 2nd Arb is about 5 million for Greg Holland and looks like second highest was 3+mil. Castro at 4 million is not crazy for this team and he would still carry significant trade value next year if he performs.

[Tony-OH]

Lots of great points here Frobby. I would like to re-emphasize that the extended roster has certainly helped the bullpen cover up for the starting pitching that typically struggles a 3rd time through an order. Hyde has been able to get these starters out fairly quickly with the added arms in his bullpen. It will be interesting if MLB keeps these expanded rosters next year if order to keep more teams competitive.

 

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lots of great points here Frobby. I would like to re-emphasize that the extended roster has certainly helped the bullpen cover up for the starting pitching that typically struggles a 3rd time through an order. Hyde has been able to get these starters out fairly quickly with the added arms in his bullpen. It will be interesting if MLB keeps these expanded rosters next year if order to keep more teams competitive.

 

Another thing that Hyde does is anticipate matchups and pull pitchers before they get into unfavorable matchups.   It causes a lot of short appearances for the starter and relievers.   This is difference from Buck who generally tried to get as many innings as he could out of pitchers especially starters so has to not burn the pen.

I don't know how Hyde will manage in a 162 games season but there is a notable difference now.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I mentioned in another thread the idea of a Severino/Givens/Castro package.

Ya know who usually needs a bunch of relievers and has some history of paying handsomely....the Nationals.

This year they've got Voth tottering on the edge of credibility, lost Strasburg, and Erick Fedde has a decent ERA but also a 47/43 K/BB the last two years.  Their bullpen better than usual, but still no great shakes.

At least today it seems Cobb could be of service to both WAS and ATL, and I have heard mention that East/Central/West intra-division trading might be a more enlightened choice this year.

[Philip]

I don’t know if there is a particular philosophy about pulling the starter, but Brandon always seems to wait too long before pulling the starter. Instead of anticipating a problem and bringing in a reliever before that problem happens or doesn’t, he waits for the problem to happen, and only then does he start to warm somebody up. Especially with an expanded bullpen, He should have been able to avoid several inherited-runner situations. Not all, of course, sometimes the problem really sneaks up and grabs you, but a lot.

[Tony-OH]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Another thing that Hyde does is anticipate matchups and pull pitchers before they get into unfavorable matchups.   It causes a lot of short appearances for the starter and relievers.   This is difference from Buck who generally tried to get as many innings as he could out of pitchers especially starters so has to not burn the pen.

I don't know how Hyde will manage in a 162 games season but there is a notable difference now.

There has been a noticeable difference this year and it seems to be because he has more arms and doesn't have to burn through his bullpen and use the Norfolk shuttle like in years pasts. 

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Lots of great points here Frobby. I would like to re-emphasize that the extended roster has certainly helped the bullpen cover up for the starting pitching that typically struggles a 3rd time through an order. Hyde has been able to get these starters out fairly quickly with the added arms in his bullpen. It will be interesting if MLB keeps these expanded rosters next year if order to keep more teams competitive.

 

Pros: It's a competitive balance leveler.  Who needs five or six good starters when they're basically there to get you to the 4th or 5th inning without being down four runs? 

Cons: What kind of baseball do you want?  Would anyone actually choose a style of baseball where you use seven or eight anonymous pitchers a game, and the best starters don't even throw 200 innings?  Also, exacerbates the three true outcomes style (or I suppose improves it if you're really into Ks and homers).

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

I agree Castro should be shopped around and hopefully bring a return but I would be shocked if he gets non-tendered if he stays.
He’s making just over a million this year, from what I found the record for reliever raise in 2nd Arb is about 5 million for Greg Holland and looks like second highest was 3+mil. Castro at 4 million is not crazy for this team and he would still carry significant trade value next year if he performs.

I don’t think Castro will get $4 mm in Arb 2.   Just for comparison, Brad Brach got a raise from $1.25 mm to $3.05 mm in Arb 2, following an outstanding season in which he pitched to a 2.72 ERA over 79 innings.   Given made $2.15 mm in Arb 1 and after a mediocre 2019, got $3.225 mm in  Arb 2.    I’d see Castro falling short of $3 mm next year.    

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

I agree Castro should be shopped around and hopefully bring a return but I would be shocked if he gets non-tendered if he stays.
He’s making just over a million this year, from what I found the record for reliever raise in 2nd Arb is about 5 million for Greg Holland and looks like second highest was 3+mil. Castro at 4 million is not crazy for this team and he would still carry significant trade value next year if he performs.

I just answered this in another thread, so I won’t rewrite that post but while I agree with the points here, I could see them cutting some costs and going with cheaper arms.

[Sports Guy]

59 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Ya know who usually needs a bunch of relievers and has some history of paying handsomely....the Nationals.

This year they've got Voth tottering on the edge of credibility, lost Strasburg, and Erick Fedde has a decent ERA but also a 47/43 K/BB the last two years.  Their bullpen better than usual, but still no great shakes.

At least today it seems Cobb could be of service to both WAS and ATL, and I have heard mention that East/Central/West intra-division trading might be a more enlightened choice this year.

There are several teams that could use multiple relievers.

The Castro/Givens/Severino package makes sense for Tampa.

[Aristotelian]

I am sure a pace for 28 wins would be on the very high end of most preseason predictions, even here on OH. Two wins under .500 has to be seen as a massive (over)achievement. All the national media had us 30th in the power rankings, and most of us would have too. Plus this has been without Iglesias, Harvey, and Hays for the most part.

More importantly, Elias/Hyde have given auditions to a number of guys and identified several pieces that could become important long term pieces, namely Santander, Sulser, Alberto, and Scott, plus to at least some extent Nunez, Sisco, Lakins, Ruiz, Eshelman, Valaika. We have a lot more to build on now than we did a year or two ago. 

Plus we have also enhanced trade value of Cobb, Severino, Givens, perhaps Castro. Remains to be seen whether we will get anything of note but we might. 

Finally, I am actually interested in watching games, both because we have a shot at the playoffs and I feel the games are competitive again. In short, tremendously successful first half IMO.  

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think Castro will get $4 mm in Arb 2.   Just for comparison, Brad Brach got a raise from $1.25 mm to $3.05 mm in Arb 2, following an outstanding season in which he pitched to a 2.72 ERA over 79 innings.   Given made $2.15 mm in Arb 1 and after a mediocre 2019, got $3.225 mm in  Arb 2.    I’d see Castro falling short of $3 mm next year.    

I agree.  Somewhere between 2.5 and 3M.   Which should not be a reason to trade him.

I think this off season Elias will be fill holes that allow the team to contend next season.   Kind of the way he did  at SS with Iglesias this past off season.   He will probably add a starter  or two while trading Cobb.  Leaving a spot  open for one of the  young  starters to fill in the rotation.  I don't think the FAs will be high priced but probably medium priced starter(s).   

This team is progressing  faster than expected.   I think he will adjust the acquisition schedule to make  the team stronger in 2021.