2009 Draft: #5 Dustin Ackley

[oriole_way]

Don't get me wrong. I'd love Utley-upside at 1B. I just think some of the other available players are potentially more valuable than Utley-upside at 1B. The problem is if his bat falls short at all of the comps Greg makes, now you have a 1B batting, let's say .285/.360/.500, you have a very good but not all-star 1B. As a comp, Millar's lifetime .277/.361/.457.

To summarize, my issue with a 1B in the top five or so is that you are relying on the bat and basically nothing else. The defensive-side of 1B is insignificant enough that it basically falls out of the equation when comparing it against someone who can play ML-average CF, 2B or even 3B. You're looking for elite talent (middle-of-the-order bat, front-end starter, above-average ML bat at a premium position, etc.). I'm not sure Ackley makes the cut unless he reaches his absolute ceiling.

It's worth noting Gwynn, Damon and Utley are fairly different batters, as well.

- I agree that I would prefer an Albert Pujols type player at 1B if available. I'm sure everyone would.

- I thought Utley was only mentioned when referencing Ackley's power potential. I agree that if Ackley is really projected to hit .280-.290, while hitting 20 hr, then I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about him at 1B.

- If his bat falls short of Greg's comps, then all bets are out the window. But that can be said about any type of hitter. I'm sure that there have been many power hitters that were drafted high that never reached their projected comps either.

- I admit that I'm not a big fan of guys who have a lot of power but hit for a lower batting average. I just don't think those guys really help you win many more games, especially if you eventually end up in the playoffs. For example, I think that Adam Dunn is overrated.

- On the other hand, I really value a well rounded player who may not have quite as much power but can beat you in several ways. When I saw the following sentence in Ackley's profile:

Think .320+ BA, 20+ HR power, 20+ SB ability via above-average speed, and excellent defensive skills...

I thought of a George Brett type player. Granted, Brett played third base and not first (at least not until the end of his career), but I was a big fan of Brett as a hitter. I know it's a different era, but I would rather have a George Brett than say, Ryan Howard (or Carlos Delgado or Adam Dunn) at first base.

[Stotle]

- I agree that I would prefer an Albert Pujols type player at 1B if available. I'm sure everyone would.

- I thought Utley was only mentioned when referencing Ackley's power potential. I agree that if Ackley is really projected to hit .280-.290, while hitting 20 hr, then I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about him at 1B.

- If his bat falls short of Greg's comps, then all bets are out the window. But that can be said about any type of hitter. I'm sure that there have been many power hitters that were drafted high that never reached their projected comps either.

- I admit that I'm not a big fan of guys who have a lot of power but hit for a lower batting average. I just don't think those guys really help you win many more games, especially if you eventually end up in the playoffs. For example, I think that Adam Dunn is overrated.

- On the other hand, I really value a well rounded player who may not have quite as much power but can beat you in several ways. When I saw the following sentence in Ackley's profile:

I thought of a George Brett type player. Granted, Brett played third base and not first (at least not until the end of his career), but I was a big fan of Brett as a hitter. I know it's a different era, but I would rather have a George Brett than say, Ryan Howard (or Carlos Delgado or Adam Dunn) at first base.

I agree with everything you write here, I just wouldn't draft a 1B that had that as his ceiling with the #5 pick. It's a moot point, because I'm sure Ackley will hold up in CF. Theoretically speaking, though, if the bat falls short you have a 1B that isn't a top-tier hitter. That's a waste of a top 5 pick.

I realize your point that every prospect can disappoint with the bat, but think of Alvarez, Green, Tim Beckham, Posey -- if they don't hit at a top-tier level they are still contributing defensively at a position with more value than 1B. Also, their bat is more likely to still play at their respective positions, even if it's less than expected. So there's less risk in taking a more valuable position player (based on position) because the fall back is generally some sort of useful player. Ackley would not be that if his bat fell off of those projections and were he stuck at 1b.

Good convo...

[WV O's]

this guy has batting champ written all over him..If he is health..I think we should grab him in the 5th spot...no matter the position.