Who are the #21 and #22 Prospects?

[Tony-OH]

Who are the #21 and #22 Prospects?

[LookinUp]

Went Bradish/Smith on nice reports on both. Could easily make a case for Hall and Zimmerman here too. Only one on the list that doesn't seem to belong is Nevin, IMO, though I'm guessing Stowers' ranking will be below Hall's based on last year. They were right next to each other though, so a good/bad report or two could change the order I guess.

[Sports Guy]

Voted too fast..Smith and Zimmerman would be my choice but I noted Smith and Bradish.

[luismatos4prez]

I think a case could be made for Adam Hall being in the 10-12 range. I'm interested to read why he's fallen so far in your rankings.

[Tony-OH]

56 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

I think a case could be made for Adam Hall being in the 10-12 range. I'm interested to read why he's fallen so far in your rankings.

 

38 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Agreed.  I went Hall/Bradish.  The knocks on Hall are limited power, a little too much swing and miss for his profile, and maybe doesn't stick at SS.  However, he hit well at 20 in his first full season and has a chance to be a starting middle IF at the ML level.  Bradish got raves at the Bowie camp, mentioned along with Hall and Rodriguez. 

That's pretty much why I have him lower than others. I want to see him against upper level pitching with good velocity before getting too high on him. There are some questions about bat speed which could limit his overall ceiling. Saying that, I think he's got a solid floor as a utility guy because he's pretty athletic. I'd like to see him get some time in CF as well as SS and 2B.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

That's pretty much why I have him lower than others. I want to see him against upper level pitching with good velocity before getting too high on him. There are some questions about bat speed which could limit his overall ceiling. Saying that, I think he's got a solid floor as a utility guy because he's pretty athletic. I'd like to see him get some time in CF as well as SS and 2B.

I just wouldn't put fourth and five round drafts picks that barely played this year over a guy like that.

Different people have different criteria.

[LookinUp]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just wouldn't put fourth and five round drafts picks that barely played this year over a guy like that.

Different people have different criteria.

I think one of the strength's of Tony's lists are that they don't over hype most guys. 

Tony has never over-sold Hall, I assume for the reasons mentioned above. I don't think he's being unreasonably critical though. He's basically saying that yeah, he's good, but he has real stuff to improve upon for his profile to play against better competition. It's sobering, which is good.

[Tony-OH]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I just wouldn't put fourth and five round drafts picks that barely played this year over a guy like that.

Different people have different criteria.

Sure, I understand that. That's why I never tell anyone they are wrong per se. I just would prefer to have guys with upside over guys that have limited ceilings.

You've followed my lists for years and know this is a weird year because of having no minor league season and limited spring season for draftees. As for Baumler and Mayo, I typically would have wanted to have seen them a bit against pro competition and gotten some reports on them before putting them on the list, but that's the hand we were dealt this year.

I kinda hedged my bets with them by sticking them where I did. 

 

[interloper]

I sorta feel like if we didn't see Zimmermann struggle in his callup this year, more people would be voting Zimmermann/Bradish. So that's how I voted. Although I admit to kind of liking Bradish/Smith a little more haha. But again, that's because they're new guys that I'm excited about. 

[LookinUp]

24 minutes ago, interloper said:

I sorta feel like if we didn't see Zimmermann struggle in his callup this year, more people would be voting Zimmermann/Bradish. So that's how I voted. Although I admit to kind of liking Bradish/Smith a little more haha. But again, that's because they're new guys that I'm excited about. 

Probably true. In fairness, Tony said 17-25 could be placed many ways. Small preferences could move a guy several spots. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Sure, I understand that. That's why I never tell anyone they are wrong per se. I just would prefer to have guys with upside over guys that have limited ceilings.

You've followed my lists for years and know this is a weird year because of having no minor league season and limited spring season for draftees. As for Baumler and Mayo, I typically would have wanted to have seen them a bit against pro competition and gotten some reports on them before putting them on the list, but that's the hand we were dealt this year.

I kinda hedged my bets with them by sticking them where I did. 

 

I think I tend to be not as high on overslots as most people.

Let's take Hokum Sven Kim as a hypothetical.  Hokum's number is $1.5 million.  He's still there in the eleventh round and the O's pick him up and with the savings from going underslot in the first round given Hokum his 1.5M.

Now some folks will say the O's picked up a mid second round talent in the eleventh round, since 1.5M is slot for the 49.5 pick in the draft.

The way I look at it, if other teams though Hokum was a mid second round talent they would have just picked him and coughed up the 1.5M.

Either Hokum's number would have been even higher if he had gone earlier, which is possible, or teams didn't think his price matched his talent and he's probably closer to say a third round talent.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I sorta feel like if we didn't see Zimmermann struggle in his callup this year, more people would be voting Zimmermann/Bradish. So that's how I voted. Although I admit to kind of liking Bradish/Smith a little more haha. But again, that's because they're new guys that I'm excited about. 

Zimmermann had a bad debut (3 IP 5 ER) but a good second outing (4 IP 1 ER).   So, I certainly didn’t get a negative impression of him.   I look forward to seeing what he can contribute next year.   

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think I tend to be not as high on overslots as most people.

Let's take Hokum Sven Kim as a hypothetical.  Hokum's number is $1.5 million.  He's still there in the eleventh round and the O's pick him up and with the savings from going underslot in the first round given Hokum his 1.5M.

Now some folks will say the O's picked up a mid second round talent in the eleventh round, since 1.5M is slot for the 49.5 pick in the draft.

The way I look at it, if other teams though Hokum was a mid second round talent they would have just picked him and coughed up the 1.5M.

Either Hokum's number would have been even higher if he had gone earlier, which is possible, or teams didn't think his price matched his talent and he's probably closer to say a third round talent.

This is flawed logic. There are lots of reasons why 1st or 2nd round talents don't go in those rounds. Sometimes they have a high level of risk that makes them more of a risk and teams go with others less risky. In Baumler and Mayo's case, they were high school seniors that barely played so most teams went college heavy. Also, teams had a strict budget and once they couldn't meet the player's demands, they slipped. 

[HowAboutThat]

Wow I’m surprised that Hall and Zimmerman have fallen so far. Zimmerman made his debut, and wasn’t terrible, for Pete’s sake. Oh well, I know nothing about prospects, I was just wondering if we are at the “throwing darts at the dartboard“ stage yet.

I just hope that we trade the right guys and keep the right guys, release the right guys, draft the right guys, and develop the right guys.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

This is flawed logic. There are lots of reasons why 1st or 2nd round talents don't go in those rounds. Sometimes they have a high level of risk that makes them more of a risk and teams go with others less risky. In Baumler and Mayo's case, they were high school seniors that barely played so most teams went college heavy. Also, teams had a strict budget and once they couldn't meet the player's demands, they slipped. 

I think that if they have a high level of risk then that would preclude them from being first or second round talents. 

I was also speaking in the general sense and not specifically about Baumler and Mayo.  That was why I used H.S. Kim and put him in the eleventh round.

I think the overslot strategy was stronger before they added slotting.  You used to be able to really throw a hunk of change at a kid who wanted to go to school.  Such as when the Pirates gave 5M to Josh Bell after selecting him in the second round.  You can't make a power move like that today.

Did most teams go college heavy?  I know the O's did early but didn't realize it was a general trend in the 2020 draft.