Elias answers some questions.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Are we going to be a team that can't have anyone who's expensive? I don't think so. I think the question is about who else is competing with him. If he's clearly the best internal option at the time, you pay a little for him. Particularly when we'd theoretically be a team with next to nothing in terms of external payroll added.

I don't think that guy is going to be Santander.

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think that guy is going to be Santander.

I just think it's too soon to know. He has shown some real upside and the guys who are theoretically going to replace him have a ton to prove.

There's always the "if the O's get a great offer" scenario. Sure. You consider really good offers for almost everyone. But in the standard world where another owner isn't ready to throw a ton of chips into a trade for a guy who has not proven he's that awesome player, you have to see this through. You really have no choice.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I just think it's too soon to know. He has shown some real upside and the guys who are theoretically going to replace him have a ton to prove.

There's always the "if the O's get a great offer" scenario. Sure. You consider really good offers for almost everyone. But in the standard world where another owner isn't ready to throw a ton of chips into a trade for a guy who has not proven he's that awesome player, you have to see this through. You really have no choice.

 

I don't think that payroll is ever going to support having a number of players making arb3 or FA prices.

I certainly don't think that if you have one or two of those guys that Santander makes the cut.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you don’t have a clue as to what their thought process was.

I think they saw what many saw..that there was no slam dunk pick after Tork and even Tork had his warts. I think it’s possible the Os valued Kjerstad over anyone and I think it’s possible/likely that they saw so little separation between Martin, Lacy, Kjerstad, etc..that they took the one that allowed them to do more later in the draft.

Personally, I’m glad they didn’t go Martin.  I would have been fine if they did but I think there were a lot of question marks there.  I feel Kjerstad has a higher floor.  
 

I may have preferred they go Veen over everyone but I get why they didn’t.  

Would you like to place a small wager on Martin?

[Just Regular]

Santander and Means are sort of the same to me.

Last offseason I remember saying Santander flashed enough that I hope he gets inked into the 2nd spot of the batting order and left alone.  That still seems right for 2021, only now the possibility of a good player has become a little bit more of a probability.

Means's big finish kind of moved the needle to where I'm expecting more than hoping he'll be a good pitcher, but with that being said, it was almost all the Buck-trademarked "fool ya" month of September in a very weird year.  He's shown enough consistent growth I'm inclined to credit that a bit more than I would somebody else's randomly hot September.

[Sports Guy]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think you’re a little too down on Santander.    He’s under control for four years, his age 26-29 seasons.  I expect the O’s to be a good team for part of that time.    He’s been worth 3.1 rWAR over his last 130 games, spanning two seasons.    So, it’s not a huge stretch to think he could be a 3 WAR player over the next few years.   I personally don’t peg him quite that high, but it’s far from impossible and we’ll probably get a better read on that this year.   I would not definitely say he’s not part of the team’s future.   

If I’m down on him, so are you because I agreed with you about his expected production and I agree that he could end up a little better than he is.

But odds are that he will be an oft injured player that struggles with OBP while maintaining the ability to be a solid everyday player but not one that moves the needle in any way.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I just think it's too soon to know. He has shown some real upside and the guys who are theoretically going to replace him have a ton to prove.

There's always the "if the O's get a great offer" scenario. Sure. You consider really good offers for almost everyone. But in the standard world where another owner isn't ready to throw a ton of chips into a trade for a guy who has not proven he's that awesome player, you have to see this through. You really have no choice.

 

What does “shown some real upside” mean?

How are you defining that?

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Santander and Means are sort of the same to me.

Last offseason I remember saying Santander flashed enough that I hope he gets inked into the 2nd spot of the batting order and left alone.  That still seems right for 2021, only now the possibility of a good player has become a little bit more of a probability.

Means's big finish kind of moved the needle to where I'm expecting more than hoping he'll be a good pitcher, but with that being said, it was almost all the Buck-trademarked "fool ya" month of September in a very weird year.  He's shown enough consistent growth I'm inclined to credit that a bit more than I would somebody else's randomly hot September.

That’s fair...I like Means more because we need 5 of him bs one of Santander but we need to see more out of him.

[TommyPickles]

Last season was a weird one for Means. First there's Covid, then he gets injured, then when he finally gets going, his dad died...

The last month and a half of the season was when he finally got settled in.  And he looked good.

5 starts, 29 IP, 2.48 ERA, 31 K's/4 BB

I don't know if he's TOR or not, but he's a very exciting player to watch. I hope he'll be on our next playoff roster.

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If I’m down on him, so are you because I agreed with you about his expected production and I agree that he could end up a little better than he is.

But odds are that he will be an oft injured player that struggles with OBP while maintaining the ability to be a solid everyday player but not one that moves the needle in any way.

I do not assume Santander will be oft-injured.   He certainly has been to this point in his career, but I don’t discern a pattern or chronic problem that makes me feel he’s a much worse risk than the average player.   

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do not assume Santander will be oft-injured.   He certainly has been to this point in his career, but I don’t discern a pattern or chronic problem that makes me feel he’s a much worse risk than the average player.   

Being oft injured when you are younger doesn’t usually bode well for you being healthy as you get older.  Not set in stone of course, as nothing is but odds are he will be.  

[Ruzious]

I'm a fan of Santander's - despite his low OBP.  Granted the season was a SSS, but his at bats looked so much better, the ball exploded off his bat, and he had a very low BABIP.  I think the key was he got himself in shape - which made him much more confident.  Imo, the best is yet to come.  

[MCO'sFan]

55 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Would you like to place a small wager on Martin?

Tide... you are nothing if not consistent my friend!

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What does “shown some real upside” mean?

How are you defining that?

3 WAR or more even, including good OF defense.

He's a good player. Not a super star, but good. The OBP won't allow super star, but the power is valuable and the hit tool is good. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

3 WAR or more even, including good OF defense.

He's a good player. Not a super star, but good. The OBP won't allow super star, but the power is valuable and the hit tool is good. 

But is that someone you pay Arb 3 and 4 prices for?