Trade Bait 2021

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, we will see.  The most likely guys to be traded are members of the pen and Mancini.  Those guys have struggled as of late but they have also been good for a lot of the year and have track records of being good.  There are 15 games left before the deadline, so if any of them start to get hot and play well, the value will be right back.

I also think we overestimate how much value is lost by a bad/mediocre  stretch of games.  These guys all have track records and been around for a while.  Teams know what they are.

Btw, Santander could be in play too but I think he needs to get healthy and start hitting.  Teams  may need to see him healthy and hitting well.  His track record isn’t as solid.

That being said, I find it hard to believe a team will pay what is needed to get him.  I think he’s more likely to be dealt in the offseason, if he can have a good second half.

[ScGO's]

Heading into the final week before the trade deadline, it will be interesting to see what Elias will do.  You know he is having conversations, a lot of those will come out in the media after the deadline. 

Here are the names I would think he would be fielding and making calls on that are most likely to get traded.

Trey Mancini - Defense seems to hold his market up a bit. It's good to see him climbing over .800 OPS. Probably would return a organizational Top 10 and couple "intriguing" guys.  HR Derby along with tonight's dinger show the power is real.  Probably takes more walks on a more talented team.

Tanner Scott- Is almost like a much more gifted and talented version of George Sherrill.  Best stuff of our relievers.  I would be interested to know if there is a team out there looking at him like "we can tweak and fix this guy and make him a Boss" and wants to be aggressive on him.  A top 30 guy of varying range and an "intriguing" prospect or 2 is probably your return for Scott and the next 2.

Paul Fry - FIP says he has been killing it.  ERA is starting to creep back down.  Lots of K's and he has a track record that has been fairly impressive and trending up. Being LHP is still important too.

Cole Sulser - The player control would seem to be an attractive incentive. Especially for smaller market teams trying to compete that can handle the cost and arbitration of his contract for a few more years.  That may also be a reason we keep him if Elias isn't prejudice to age.

If all four are traded, its a return of probably 6 to 10 new players into the system.  So in total you are probably looking at any where from 0-10 new prospects to talk about next Sunday.

That's probably it at this point.  I just don't see Means, Mullins, and Santander achieving peak value yet, and with the control they have, I see Elias going another year to see if they are more competitive before deciding to try and trade them or keep them for the first run at the playoffs.  Next year to me would still be ahead of schedule; I have felt that in 2023, when we are finally free of the Davis contract, we might be able to make a FA splash or two to go with the youth movement. It comes next year, awesome, it would feel like 2012 again.

 

[Ruzious]

Fry is one of the few significant pieces that teams will likely bid on.  Everyone can use a reliever like him.  Scott may be more talented, but Fry seems to be more reliable.  

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

Fry is one of the few significant pieces that teams will likely bid on.  Everyone can use a reliever like him.  Scott may be more talented, but Fry seems to be more reliable.  

Every team can use a reliever like him, but there are also plenty of relievers like him out there that are sure to be available and I don't think he is looked at as a premier set up guy or anything.  I would not expect the kind of return we got back for Givens or Castro.  I would be very surprised if we got anyone back who would slot into our top 20 prospects. 

[Ruzious]

35 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Every team can use a reliever like him, but there are also plenty of relievers like him out there that are sure to be available and I don't think he is looked at as a premier set up guy or anything.  I would not expect the kind of return we got back for Givens or Castro.  I would be very surprised if we got anyone back who would slot into our top 20 prospects. 

I think Fry should get us a little more than we got for Castro - because he's more reliable than Castro - and a lefty - and not eligible for free agency till 2025.  Why do you think he wouldn't?  

[ChuckS]

34 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

I think Fry should get us a little more than we got for Castro - because he's more reliable than Castro - and a lefty - and not eligible for free agency till 2025.  Why do you think he wouldn't?  

Because Miguel Castro threw 99.  I assume he still does.  I think age is also a factor.  Maybe I'm wrong and Fry gets us a decent prospect back.  But he's a dime a dozen middle reliver IMO. 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Because Miguel Castro threw 99.  I assume he still does.  I think age is also a factor.  Maybe I'm wrong and Fry gets us a decent prospect back.  But he's a dime a dozen middle reliver IMO. 

He’s more effective than Castro.

[Frobby]

12 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Because Miguel Castro threw 99.  I assume he still does.  I think age is also a factor.  Maybe I'm wrong and Fry gets us a decent prospect back.  But he's a dime a dozen middle reliver IMO. 

Fry Is more effective than Castro, but the thing about Castro is he was quite rubber-armed, throwing 66/86/73 innings in the three years prior to the pandemic.  Fry hasn’t topped 57.1.   He’s on pace for 64 this year.   That’s the main reason you could argue Castro had more value.   

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, ChuckS said:

Because Miguel Castro threw 99.  I assume he still does.  I think age is also a factor.  Maybe I'm wrong and Fry gets us a decent prospect back.  But he's a dime a dozen middle reliver IMO. 

So, Scott should have at least as much value as Castro - since he throws as hard as Castro - and has a very good slider.  Personally, if I was a GM, I'd pay more to get Fry than I would to get Scott.  

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

So, Scott should have at least as much value as Castro - since he throws as hard as Castro - and has a very good slider.  Personally, if I was a GM, I'd pay more to get Fry than I would to get Scott.  

I think so.  I also think it would be a mistake to trade Scott.  I believe he still has time to figure it out and become elite.  If not, you can likely get a similar return in another year or two.  

[Ruzious]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Fry Is more effective than Castro, but the thing about Castro is he was quite rubber-armed, throwing 66/86/73 innings in the three years prior to the pandemic.  Fry hasn’t topped 57.1.   He’s on pace for 64 this year.   That’s the main reason you could argue Castro had more value.   

Fwiw, if you include minor league innings, Fry had 80 innings in 2018.  

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Every team can use a reliever like him, but there are also plenty of relievers like him out there that are sure to be available and I don't think he is looked at as a premier set up guy or anything.  I would not expect the kind of return we got back for Givens or Castro.  I would be very surprised if we got anyone back who would slot into our top 20 prospects. 

Givens and Castro weren't exactly premier setup men, especially Castro.

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Givens and Castro weren't exactly premier setup men, especially Castro.

Givens was for a bit.  He was very good.  I think GM's pay for stuff.  They don't pay so much for older command based middle relievers with a short major league track record. 

Maybe I'll be proven wrong.