A look at 35 international amateurs who debuted from 2013-19

[Frobby]

In response to an issue Sports Guy brought up in another thread today, I decided to have a look at all the international amateur free agent players who debuted in the majors in the 2013-19 period who rank in the top 20 in their overall debut class in rWAR.     Of the 140 overall debut players (7 years x 20 players/year), 35 of them, or 25%, were signed as international amateur free agents.   This does not include older players signed from the Asian professional leagues, but it does include the older Cuban “amateurs.”

Looking at the 35, I break them down into several categories:

The Sky-High Priced Cubans (4).     These include Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel and Yoan Moncada.    Each was signed for at least $30 mm, either via a major league contract (Puig, Abreu, Gurriel) or a signing bonus (Moncada).   All of these players were older than the typical Dominican or Venezuelan amateur.  

The Million Dollar Club (8).   This includes Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($3.9 mm), Gary Sanchez ($3 mm), Eloy Jimenez ($2.8 mm), Yordan Alvarez ($2 mm), Gleyber Torres ($1.7 mm), Rafael Devers ($1.5 mm), Juan Soto ($1.5 mm), and Carlos Martinez ($1.5 mm).  

The Upper Middle Class ($400 k - $999 k) (5).    Here you will find Willson Contreras ($850 k), Max Kepler ($800 k), Fernando Tatis Jr. ($700 k), Willy Adames ($420 k) and Xander Bogaerts ($410 k). 

The Middle Class ($100 k - $399 k) (8).  These players include Ozzie Albies ($350 k), Antonio Senzatela ($250 k), Luis Severino ($225 k), German Marquez ($225 k), Eduardo Rodriguez ($175 k), Odebel Herrera ($160 k), Ketel Marte ($100 k) and Ronald Acuna ($100 k).

The Bargain Basement Guys ($10 k – $ 99 k) (7).   Found here are Jonathan Schoop ($90 k), Jose Ramirez ($50 k), Marcell Ozuna ($49 k), Luis Arraez ($40 k), David Peralta ($35 k), Eugenio Suarez ($10 k) and Yonny Chirinos ($10 k).  

The Mystery Boys (3).   I couldn’t find any signing bonus information on Ender Inciarte, Luis Castillo or Jaime Barria.   I’d probably infer they were all in the bargain basement category.

I’m sure if you waited ten years, you’d find that these 35 players were not necessarily the best 35 international amateurs who debuted in the 2013-19 window.   But, it’s a pretty good sampling and shows that teams can find good players at any bonus level.    Keep in mind that for every player signed for $1 mm and up, there are a couple of dozen guys who are signed for less than that.   1,022 players were signed in the 2019-20 signing period.    Only about 12% of them got bonuses over $300 k, and 3% over $1 mm.

[Can_of_corn]

It's Ronald Acuna.

 

Nice work as always.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's Ronald Acuna.

 

Nice work as always.

Serious brain fart there.   I’ve fixed it, thanks.   

[Sports Guy]

Wonder how many players signed for 7 figures over this time frame?

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder how many players signed for 7 figures over this time frame?

Lots.   To be clear, the players who debuted in 2013-19 mostly were signed in 2008-14, with a couple of outliers.    The 2014 class in particular had a lot of high priced players who did not pan out.   Here’s a good article about that class.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/prospects365.com/2020/03/30/the-cautionary-tale-of-the-2014-international-signing-class/amp/

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lots.   To be clear, the players who debuted in 2013-19 mostly were signed in 2008-14, with a couple of outliers.    The 2014 class in particular had a lot of high priced players who did not pan out.   Here’s a good article about that class.   https://www.google.com/amp/s/prospects365.com/2020/03/30/the-cautionary-tale-of-the-2014-international-signing-class/amp/

Good reasons not to get wrapped up in the 7 figure signing bonuses. 

[Jammer7]

Great work as always!

I am curious to see what impact the new technology (track man, etc...) deployed down there and the increased tournament/showcase events will have on the accuracy of evaluations and success rates of teams signings. Things have changed tremendously in the past 5-6 years in how players are measured and evaluated. 

Also, teams have put much more into infrastructure and player development internationally. They have revamped the nutritional intake of players and the strength and conditioning programs. They have made a much greater effort to educate the players in many facets of life in the US, including teaching them English. All of these initiatives may help the success rate of international signings and help the teams spend money more wisely. It’s one theory anyway.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Great work as always!

I am curious to see what impact the new technology (track man, etc...) deployed down there and the increased tournament/showcase events will have on the accuracy of evaluations and success rates of teams signings. Things have changed tremendously in the past 5-6 years in how players are measured and evaluated. 

Also, teams have put much more into infrastructure and player development internationally. They have revamped the nutritional intake of players and the strength and conditioning programs. They have made a much greater effort to educate the players in many facets of life in the US, including teaching them English. All of these initiatives may help the success rate of international signings and help the teams spend money more wisely. It’s one theory anyway.

Agree this will be interesting.   As I said, the players I examined were mostly signed between 2008-14.    The system changed during that time, and since.    The soft cap was enacted in 2012 and the current hard cap became effective in 2017.    

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Wonder how many players signed for 7 figures over this time frame?

Definitely need the denominator for context.  For example, the 2013 draft's first round has seen about 2/3rds of players generate less than two wins in the majors.  And nearly half below replacement level or never made the majors.  The 2012 3rd round has seen one player get to five wins for his career.  2011 2nd round has four players get to five wins.

How do amateur free agents at different price points compare?

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agree this will be interesting.   As I said, the players I examined were mostly signed between 2008-14.    The system changed during that time, and since.    The soft cap was enacted in 2012 and the current hard cap became effective in 2017.    

Does anyone know of the caps' impact on overall spending?  Was there more spent overall (after inflation) in 2011 than in 2015?  Or 2019?  Eventually a decrease in compensation should lead to a decrease in talent.

[Roll Tide]

54 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Agree this will be interesting.   As I said, the players I examined were mostly signed between 2008-14.    The system changed during that time, and since.    The soft cap was enacted in 2012 and the current hard cap became effective in 2017.    

Nice information Frobby.....Thanks 

Im sure it is impossible to track but it would be interesting to see the success percentages of each category.

Im sure they throw money at any DR kid that shows any kind of tools. So they are low dollar figures but essentially money flushed down the toilet. 
 

Im disappointed that the Orioles never made a run at the pedigree type guys like Tatis or Guerrero.

[Can_of_corn]

25 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Does anyone know of the caps' impact on overall spending?  Was there more spent overall (after inflation) in 2011 than in 2015?  Or 2019?  Eventually a decrease in compensation should lead to a decrease in talent.

I think the huge signing bonuses handed out to Cuban players might skew the results.

[DrungoHazewood]

31 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the huge signing bonuses handed out to Cuban players might skew the results.

I think they're more regular free agents than amateurs so you could reasonably exclude them from the study.

Also, it's a wrong decision to treat someone who's played at a high(ish) level in Cuba or especially Japan and is 24, 25, 26 years old, and treat them like MLB rookies.  Clearly just for cost-control, not for any logical quality of play or experience reasons.  That and the typical "MLB is the only real baseball" attitude.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Does anyone know of the caps' impact on overall spending?  Was there more spent overall (after inflation) in 2011 than in 2015?  Or 2019?  Eventually a decrease in compensation should lead to a decrease in talent.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-analyzed-the-value-of-international-signing-bonus-money/

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-analyzed-the-value-of-international-signing-bonus-money/

Thanks.  So the soft cap had a temporary, moderate impact. The hard cap reduced spending in year one by about 30%.