Santander drawing interest

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

For reference, you should go back and read your own comments in the draft thread. The kid k'd a ton. One poster pointed to mental errors in the outfield and on the basepaths. He is not a burner. Probably reminds us as a Mountcastle with a better arm in the outfield. Could end up at 1st base.

I hope like hell his bat is amazing, but he was an under slot guy that we took in hopes of getting one of the big arms with our 2nd pick. Didn't work out. Doesn't mean he won't work out, but he's not your typical 1-2 profile.

I know what I said.  I didn't like the pick.

But I also don't think spending an extra year in the minors is going to fundamentally change who he is.  Unless you have to do something drastic, like rebuild a swing (Stewart, Grenier), college bats picked in the first round aren't going to need a ton of developing.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I know what I said.  I didn't like the pick.

But I also don't think spending an extra year in the minors is going to fundamentally change who he is.  Unless you have to do something drastic, like rebuild a swing (Stewart, Grenier), college bats picked in the first round aren't going to need a ton of developing.

We'll see what happens. I don't want to sound too negative. I actually like Kjerstad and hope that Elias truly was ahead of the curve in seeing a fundamental change in approach through team USA and early 2020. Plus I really like Westburg, Baumler and Mayo, so feel like the combined profile is deeper than it would have been if we just went Martin, who might not even be the hitter of Kjerstad.

Anyway, for just about any profile, given Covid, I find it hard to believe they're helpful before mid next year. On net, that means they won't be a 1:1 replacement for a guy like Santander. 

There's honestly a million ways to go that I'd be ok with. If the goal is really to build this team for 2023 and beyond, which I'd argue it should be, then I'm more on board with trading Santander and others. If I believed ownership would support a trade and replace (e.g., $$) strategy like SG and you are sort of implying we should do, I'd also be on board. If the goal is to replace from our OF depth, I think it pushes things back a year. 

[Sports Guy]

58 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s the top 5 college position players drafted in each of 2015-17 and when they reached the majors (draft pick no. and position in parentheses): 

2015

Swanson (1, SS)  8/17/16

Bregman (2, SS) 7/25/16

Benintendi (7, OF) 8/2/16

Happ (9, OF) 5/13/17

K. Newman (19, SS) 8/16/18

2016

Senzel (2, 3B) 5/3/19

Corey Ray (5, OF) ——

Z. Collins (10, C) 6/19/19

Kyle Lewis (11, OF) 9/10/19

M. Thaiss (16, C) 7/3/19

2017

P. Smith (7, 1B) 9/12/20

Hasely (8, OF) 6/4/19

Hiura (9, 2B) 5/14/19

Burger (11, 3B) ——

E. White (17, 1B) 7/21/20

Of the 15, three got called up the year after they were drafted, three got called up two years after they were drafted, seven got called up three years after they were drafted and two haven’t made it to the majors yet. 

There are a couple of factors you could consider — exactly how high were they drafted and what position did they play?   If you just look at players drafted in the top 10, there are ten of those and three got called up the year after, three two years after, three three years after and one not in the majors yet.    If you just look at 1B/OF types, you get one called up within a year, two called up within two years, three within three years and one not at all.

Considering there was no MiL season in 2020 and that Kjerstad did not play at the alternate site or the instructional league, I’d say it would be slightly optimistic but not impossible for him to get called up in 2022.    If he is called up that year, it’s likely to be well into the season.  It’s probably more likely he gets called up in 2023.

Well, part of this is how advanced is their bat.  I can’t speak for a lot of the guys on the list but Kjerstad is supposed to have an advanced bat, thus why he was drafted high, regarded as the second best power hitter in the draft and amongst the top college position players in the draft.   
 

So I stand by what I said.  If he is as good as Elias thinks he is, he will be ready sometime in 2022..if he’s not, it’s likely because he’s been hurt or isn’t as good as Elias thinks.  It’s really that simple.

If he was 3+ years away, you don’t draft him #2.

[Sports Guy]

33 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

New Santander piece from Roch this morning.  Nothing earth shattering.  They are talking to the Marlins.  Worth sharing to stimulate more debate.

https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2021/01/wondering-whether-it-makes-sense-to-keep-or-trade-santander.html

What an incredibly annoying thing to read:

The Orioles aren’t in a position to hand out long-term extensions, if that’s what you’re thinking.

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What an incredibly annoying thing to read:

The Orioles aren’t in a position to hand out long-term extensions, if that’s what you’re thinking.

Lol.  It was definitely not what I was thinking about Santander.

My opinion is I like Santander and like the Rule V story of him becoming good after being plucked from the Indians.  But if you can get a good return for him, you trade him.  That's the nature of the rebuild, despite our personal likes and dislikes of players.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's a bat first college player that went in the top 10 in the draft.

Why are you picking him that high if he's going to take three years to be ready?

I think folks confuse needing time in the minors with teams keeping players in the minors to try and maximize value.

Did you know players can actually continue to develop in the majors?

To be fair they picked him that high because he would sign for less and that allowed them to go way overslot for Mayo and the other player in the later rounds last year, 

I’m not confused at all! When was the last time the Orioles called up a player in year 2 and had that guy take off? Manny? Or was it before that? Ripken?

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

What an incredibly annoying thing to read:

The Orioles aren’t in a position to hand out long-term extensions, if that’s what you’re thinking.

Who would you extend right now?

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, eddie83 said:

Who would you extend right now?

I’m not sure I would extend anyone although Adley is a possibility.

But that is a horrible thought process, whether it’s the teams or it’s Roch’s.

Every team is in position to sign extensions, especially pre arbitration long term type deals.  Even the Rays do that.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure I would extend anyone although Adley is a possibility.

But that is a horrible thought process, whether it’s the teams or it’s Roch’s.

Every team is in position to sign extensions, especially pre arbitration long term type deals.  Even the Rays do that.

I'd say it's an integral part of how the Rays do business.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

To be fair they picked him that high because he would sign for less and that allowed them to go way overslot for Mayo and the other player in the later rounds last year, 

I’m not confused at all! When was the last time the Orioles called up a player in year 2 and had that guy take off? Manny? Or was it before that? Ripken?

What you are saying is actually incorrect.  They picked him that high for way more reasons than just he would sign under slot and again, outside of Martin, most of the top 10 guys are ranked in the same area according to BA.

[Can_of_corn]

42 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

To be fair they picked him that high because he would sign for less and that allowed them to go way overslot for Mayo and the other player in the later rounds last year, 

I’m not confused at all! When was the last time the Orioles called up a player in year 2 and had that guy take off? Manny? Or was it before that? Ripken?

Wieters.

Yea that guy.

He only played in the Hawaiian league the year he was drafted.  Spent the next season in the minors and was called up as soon as they were done manipulating his service time in his second full year.  Was a league average player that first year.

The O's have picked exactly two college bats in the top 5 since then, neither one of which has been in the system for two full seasons.

If you want to look at pitchers both Matusz and Gausman were up and producing positive WAR by their second full season.

[LookinUp]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you are saying is actually incorrect.  They picked him that high for way more reasons than just he would sign under slot and again, outside of Martin, most of the top 10 guys are ranked in the same area according to BA.

At the time of the draft, most of the rankings had not adjusted for his recent (USA baseball, early season) success. Then Elias made statements and people adjusted. Not saying that's wrong, but I think the fact that he didn't have a prolonged stretch with the better approach meant that the composite rankings didn't raise him. If Elias is right, it's a brilliant pick. If he turns out to still have that #10ish profile, it'll depend on the other guys picked.

But under slot was apparently a big part of it if you believe we had targeted over slot pitchers with the Westburg pick, but they were gone. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

At the time of the draft, most of the rankings had not adjusted for his recent (USA baseball, early season) success. Then Elias made statements and people adjusted. Not saying that's wrong, but I think the fact that he didn't have a prolonged stretch with the better approach meant that the composite rankings didn't raise him. If Elias is right, it's a brilliant pick. If he turns out to still have that #10ish profile, it'll depend on the other guys picked.

But under slot was apparently a big part of it if you believe we had targeted over slot pitchers with the Westburg pick, but they were gone. 

They hadn't?

Wasn't that their job?

Why would they not have adjusted their rankings?

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They hadn't?

Wasn't that their job?

Why would they not have adjusted their rankings?

Small sample size.

I don't know, maybe they had adjusted, but it sure seems like Elias had him projected higher than the rankings generally did. His K/BB rates prior to USA Baseball were unspectacular/not great. They changed. He said he changed his approach. That apparently changed his profile.

[eddie83]

43 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m not sure I would extend anyone although Adley is a possibility.

But that is a horrible thought process, whether it’s the teams or it’s Roch’s.

Every team is in position to sign extensions, especially pre arbitration long term type deals.  Even the Rays do that.

I don’t disagree that it could be an issue. It’s just not one yet.