Comparing the AL East Farm Systems - Fangraphs’ Take So Far

[HowAboutThat]

Re: Tampa. They traded us Steve Pearce for Jonah Heim, and then traded Heim to Oakland, where he got into the playoffs, and recently the As traded Heim to the Rangers, where they expect him to be the starter this season.

Tampa traded an older Vet for a worthwhile prospect, and even though they never used him, they were able to get value for him. And the older vet we acquired didn’t do us much good... though he did ok for the Red Sox a year later...

we should do that.

[ChosenOne21]

I'm so sad we've missed out on Jonah Heim and his 0.1 career WAR to date

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

I'm so sad we've missed out on Jonah Heim and his 0.1 career WAR to date

Sure would make trading Severino easier.

The main issue I had with the trade is that Pearce was hurt and I believe the O's knew he was hurt.  The Rays used him almost exclusively as a DH and never in the outfield.  The O's put him into the outfield and he's on the IL almost immediately.

[ChosenOne21]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure would make trading Severino easier.

The main issue I had with the trade is that Pearce was hurt and I believe the O's knew he was hurt.  The Rays used him almost exclusively as a DH and never in the outfield.  The O's put him into the outfield and he's on the IL almost immediately.

Oh, it was a pointless, bad trade for sure. Just saying, guys like Jonah Heim aren't that hard to find so I don't see what the big deal is in hindsight

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Oh, it was a pointless, bad trade for sure. Just saying, guys like Jonah Heim aren't that hard to find so I don't see what the big deal is in hindsight

It's not a big deal.  It's just a good example of how Dan drained the minors for marginal gains at the ML level.

[Sports Guy]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure would make trading Severino easier.

The main issue I had with the trade is that Pearce was hurt and I believe the O's knew he was hurt.  The Rays used him almost exclusively as a DH and never in the outfield.  The O's put him into the outfield and he's on the IL almost immediately.

It’s easy to trade Severino now.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s easy to trade Severino now.

I'm fully convinced Elias is going to slow play Adley so he can keep him on the prospect lists for another year. 

I know y'all think I'm crazy on that one but I don't think Hays and Mountcastle falling just short of losing rookie eligibility was happenstance.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm fully convinced Elias is going to slow play Adley so he can keep him on the prospect lists for another year. 

I know y'all think I'm crazy on that one but I don't think Hays and Mountcastle falling just short of losing rookie eligibility was happenstance.

Well comparing them to Adley is just awful.

But even if he did that, trading Severino is still pretty easy.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Philip said:

Re: Tampa. They traded us Steve Pearce for Jonah Heim, and then traded Heim to Oakland, where he got into the playoffs, and recently the As traded Heim to the Rangers, where they expect him to be the starter this season.

Tampa traded an older Vet for a worthwhile prospect, and even though they never used him, they were able to get value for him. And the older vet we acquired didn’t do us much good... though he did ok for the Red Sox a year later...

we should do that.

What is it exactly that you want us to do that we haven’t been doing?  Since July 2018 we’ve traded away an entire starting rotation (Gausman, Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Milone), the better part of a bullpen (Britton, O’Day, Brach, Givens, Castro, Bleier), four major league starting infielders (Machado, Schoop, Villar, Iglesias), and other assorted odds and ends.   We tried to trade Adam Jones but he exercised his no trade clause.    

[HowAboutThat]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What is it exactly that you want us to do that we haven’t been doing?  Since July 2018 we’ve traded away an entire starting rotation (Gausman, Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Milone), the better part of a bullpen (Britton, O’Day, Brach, Givens, Castro, Bleier), four major league starting infielders (Machado, Schoop, Villar, Iglesias), and other assorted odds and ends.   We tried to trade Adam Jones but he exercised his no trade clause.    

I have no complaints. I would even probably have done the Pearce trade. I just want us to keep trading old vets for prospects instead of the other way around.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

I have no complaints. I would even probably have done the Pearce trade. I just want us to keep trading old vets for prospects instead of the other way around.

I’m fine with that.    Not many old vets around, other than people we signed this winter.    And I do expect we’ll trade them during the season if they perform well enough to earn a return.   

[LookinUp]

Nowadays, Arbitration Eligible is the new "Old Vets."

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 1/28/2021 at 11:04 AM, Frobby said:

Fangraphs is in the midst of evaluating all the farm systems.   For the AL East, they have done Tampa, Boston and Toronto.    Their methodology is to list every prospect warranting a FV grade of 35+ or higher.  The average team has about 40 of these players.    

Tampa has 62 players rated 35+.   That includes Wander Franco at 80 (the only such prospect in baseball in last year’s ratings), three players at 60, and nine others at 50.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-63-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Toronto has 39 players over 35+, but decent talent at the top end with one 60, one 55 (Austin Martin) and five 50’s.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/
 

Boston has 47 players at 35+, a healthy number, but only two prospects ranked at 50 and nobody above that.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/

I expect our system will be close to Toronto’s, probably a little above with the highly rated Rutschman and a little more depth.    But a lot closer to Toronto than the unbelievably strong system Tampa is sporting.    

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-45-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

45 guys over 35+

1x 65
1x 55
3x 50
1x 45+
6x 45
4x 40+
16x 40
13x 35+

[Just Regular]

I didn't get why Akin was graduated, and Harvey not when Cot's has Harvey with more service time, but small beer - Akin and Kremer feel similar as many full seasons of minor league polish types where now we see if they can make it 25 turns in the Show.

McKenna and Stowers getting 45-tiered with Kremer/Baumann above 40+ Jahmai and just plain 40 Lowther/Diaz was noticeable.

Longenhagen's write-ups suggest 3B Gunnar (too big) and 2B Westburg (arm) already off SS Island so if it falls that way you can see the whole Late 2022 lineup save SS if guys develop well (letting Gunnar hype flow a little there).

Sorting the table by Age, it was new to me how ancient Tyler Wells and Ashton Goudeau are, 26.5 and 28.6 by Opening Day respectively.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I didn't get why Akin was graduated, and Harvey not when Cot's has Harvey with more service time

Has to be an error on Longenhagen’s part.    Overall, I found his list a bit weird.    He isn’t real high on our system, by these numbers.