MLB is deadening the baseball for 2021

[MurphDogg]

Remains to be seen how great the impact will be, only time will tell. But it is at least a positive sign that they are telling teams that they are doing it, unlike over the past few years where the tinkering has been covert and only proven after the fact with testing.

Interesting tidbit in the article, 10 teams will now be using humidors to store baseballs to maintain moisture in the baseball, up from 5 last season. I hadn't realized that other teams besides the Rockies were doing that. Evidently, there was a major impact in Arizona where the baseballs were otherwise much drier.

Note: I made a concerted effort to type "baseballs" rather than "balls" in every mention in this post. You're welcome.

Edit: MLB.com link added for non-Athletic subscribers.

[OFFNY]

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[SteveA]

Maybe we let go of Hanser Alberto too soon.  He could be another Wee Willie Keeler.

[Moose Milligan]

The article goes on to say that they estimate that it could decrease homers by 5%.

Quote

 

The MLB memo includes a footnote that says an independent lab found that fly balls that went over 375 feet lost one to two feet of batted ball distance with the new ball. That also sounds like no big deal, but every 3.3 feet of distance increases the likelihood of a home run by ten percent. An analyst familiar with the physics and math of this situation said the relationship was linear enough to estimate that this change will reduce home run rates by around five percent. 

“It’ll be like adding five feet of outfield walls to every wall in the big leagues,” the analyst said. But it’s hard to know the specifics without knowing what the drag difference will be. The memo mentions nothing about the drag, which has been a major factor in differences in how the ball has performed in the last few years. Drag is more difficult to control than bounciness, one source said. Others felt the drag difference would be negligible. 

 

Now are those would be homers turning into loud outs or doubles off the wall?

Anyway, I hope MLB gets this right.  It's sort of a step in the right direction when it comes to making this become less of a three outcome game.  It doesn't solve cutting down strikeouts, though.

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The article goes on to say that they estimate that it could decrease homers by 5%.

Depends on the launch angles. The line drive that bounced off the back of a seat in the first row of the bleacher probably becomes a double, while the towering flyball that bounced off the top of the wall for a home run settles into an outfielder's glove.

[Just Regular]

Let's hope Cedric Mullins torments various Pedro Cerranos around the division with this change.

[VaBird1]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Now are those would be homers turning into loud outs or doubles off the wall?

 

It depends on if you play Mike Devereaux in LF or Mark Trumbo.

[Moose Milligan]

28 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Depends on the launch angles. The line drive that bounced off the back of a seat in the first row of the bleacher probably becomes a double, while the towering flyball that bounced off the top of the wall for a home run settles into an outfielder's glove.

True.  Launch angles play a part.

I really don't care about home runs being decreased....I'm more concerned about balls in play overall.  It's getting obnoxious seeing so many strikeouts in a game.  Part of it is the stigma that hitters don't care about striking out anymore...not striking out 30 years ago was a badge of honor and if you were Reggie Jackson you were an outlier that just didn't care...and you hit enough homers to offset striking out.  Hitters these days don't care.

But...yeah, the game needs to get back to more balls in play and I'm not sure how they do that.  Some have mentioned moving the mound back which I have mixed feelings on.  

[DrungoHazewood]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The article goes on to say that they estimate that it could decrease homers by 5%.

Now are those would be homers turning into loud outs or doubles off the wall?

Anyway, I hope MLB gets this right.  It's sort of a step in the right direction when it comes to making this become less of a three outcome game.  It doesn't solve cutting down strikeouts, though.

Deadening the ball without doing anything about contact or outfield dimensions is basically just going to reduce runs by a few percent.  If they're right, what's going to happen is 2020's .245/.322/.418 line is going to become more like .240/.320/.409, with runs scored dropping to 4.4 or 4.5 from 4.65.  While strikeouts continue apace.

Although it could be a little more severe than that.  It's not like long fly balls will be the only thing affected.  There will be slightly lower exit velocities on almost all balls in play. Maybe a little more 2015 than 2018.

There is still almost no increased incentive to pick contact hitters over power hitters.  For that they're going to have to pick several of: move the fences back 30 or 50 feet, deaden the ball more than this, move the mound back or have pitchers pitch from flat ground, or make the bats bigger.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Deadening the ball without doing anything about contact or outfield dimensions is basically just going to reduce runs by a few percent.  If they're right, what's going to happen is 2020's .245/.322/.418 line is going to become more like .240/.320/.409, with runs scored dropping to 4.4 or 4.5 from 4.65.

Although it could be a little more severe than that.  It's not like long fly balls will be the only thing affected.  There will be slightly lower exit velocities on almost all balls in play. Maybe a little more 2015 than 2018.

There is still almost no increased incentive to pick contact hitters over power hitters.  For that they're going to have to pick several of: move the fences back 30 or 50 feet, deaden the ball more than this, move the mound back or have pitchers pitch from flat ground, or make the bats bigger.

I could see some players whose home runs become out make swing adjustments to emphasis contact to a greater degree.

As for what they could do, they could also make gloves smaller and put a bunch of debris in the field to play,  that will allow for more balls in play to lead to baserunners.

[wildcard]

This should be good for the O's if young pitchers can give up 5% less homers.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I could see some players whose home runs become out make swing adjustments to emphasis contact to a greater degree.

As for what they could do, they could also make gloves smaller and put a bunch of debris in the field to play,  that will allow for more balls in play to lead to baserunners.

I could see the players who emphasize contact being replaced by 22-year-old Mark Trumbos who can hit the ball 5% farther.

I know you're joking, but I'd be in favor of shrinking gloves by a few mm a year for a few years to see what happens. Two reasons why it took forever for the "striking out is a mortal sin" thing to go away: in the deadball era fields were horrible, and gloves were tiny.  So it was much harder to convert a ball in play into an out.  If you did away with gloves and groundskeepers strikeouts would go down 50% overnight.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

This should be good for the O's if young pitchers can give up 5% less homers.

But the O's batters will also be hitting 5% fewer homers.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

But the O's batters will also be hitting 5% fewer homers.

But as long as the pitchers give up more HR (with more runners on) than the hitters hit it's a net win.

Right?

 

[NCRaven]

At least MLB recognizes that there's an issue and is responding in some way, even if it's gradually.  I know some here run down baseball for being slow to adapt.  But, I rather like the fact that they don't screw around with the game in the way that football and basketball have.